Australian Federal Polls

[Peter the Lefty]

Newspoll out today. Bracketed number reflects change from the election.

Primary Vote
Labor 27 (-11)
Coalition 51 (+7.4)
Greens 11 (-0.
Others 11 (+4.4)

Two Party Preferred
Labor 41 (-9.9)
Coalition 59

Wow.  With those numbers, Wayne Swan, Stephen Smith, Peter Garrett,  Chris Bowen, Craig Emmerson, and maybe even Tony Burke would loose their seats.  5 or 6 Portillo moments.  Geez.  For anyone who is on the ALP left though, a blessing in disguise, perhaps. 

[Peter the Lefty]

That would be on a uniform swing. I think Emmrrson would hang on, I know his seat pretty well. Even in the Queensland election, Woodridge stayed Labor (I think the safest Labor seat? Or is that Inala?). Regardless, voters in the parts of his seat West of the highway would really struggle to vote Liberal, especially without the Can-do Campbell factor.

Swan has lost his seat before, but the redistribution took some more Liberal parts out, I think. Still, I believe no state seats in his electorate went Labor at the Queensland election a couple of months ago, so he could have some difficulties. Of course, the Queensland Premier (now, LNP Leader then) had massive cult-like personal popularity, which no other leader currently attracts, so that could weigh in his favour.

Garrett, hmmm, I think most state seats in his electorate stayed Labor last state election, Coogee, which went marginally Liberal, is shared with Wentworth. I think Polnut knows that whole area better than me, but I suspect Garrett may hang on.

The other seats, I don't know them well enough. If any seat in WA resists the swing, it will be Perth and/or Fremantle. Perhaps Smith could hang on, perhaps his seat will swing. I wouldn't want to predict that one either way.

Well, I don't think 59-41 will be the result on election day.  I actually have a feeling it will be like France this year (with left and right reversed), where it looks like a huge victory is coming for the opposition, and then they only end up winning by a narrow margin, though ironically, I hope all of those guys loose their seats, in spite of being a socialist/social democrat myself, to cleanse the ALP of their influences (and the threats of them potentially being ALP leaders in the next parliament). 

[Peter the Lefty]

Wouldn't it be weird for Tony Abbot to win one of the largest majorities in Australian parliamentary history?

Yep, but not unthinkable.  If these numbers hold, then it would look a lot like Spain 2011.

[Peter the Lefty]

Does ALP dries mean the right faction?  If so, then it would seem that they'll need someone from the left (who hopefully will clean up the party's legacy on the carbon tax) to be able to keep its youth base from switching to the Greens.  Doesn't necessarily have to be someone from the Left faction (preferably yes), but someone who is actually left-of center.. I mean, they can't be a bleeding leftist socialist tree-hugger, since they'll obviously have to win back a lot of Coalition supporters too.  But it seems like projecting integrity (which Gillard doesn't have) and honesty, as well as admitting that the Gillard government screwed up with the carbon tax (and the right-wing, austerity decision on single-mother's allowance).  It also seems like Abbot, assuming he becomes PM, will do himself in.

*fingers crossed for Tanya Plibersek*

[Peter the Lefty]

Spain 2011? Abbott would have 11x seats with Labor in the mid-30s at those numbers. Bigger than Fraser 1975.

Yeah, but I mean just in general, a massive landslide victory by an opposition leader who would, in most cases, be unelectable.