Why Trump could lose the popular vote but win the electoral college vote

[RaphaelDLG]

It's more likely Hillary wins the EC but loses the PV.  Both possibilities are non -negligable, but both are very unlikely

[RaphaelDLG]

If the swing is uniform from 2012, Trump could win Romney plus OH VA FL and still lose.

Your scenario assumes Trump tanks severely with Hispanics and stays that way but white voters swing massively.  I don't think Trump wins without improving a little bit with Hispanics.

Let's say Trump loses five points with Hispanics and gains with everyone else and there are slight fluctuations in turnout.  He wins 50-50 barely 270-268 with Romney plus VA/OH/NH/FL.

Trump winning the rust belt is an overrated meme.

Maybe you're right and at this point for this candidate the Republicans have a slight edge in the EC.  But either way what I said about either result being pretty unlikely is true I think.

[RaphaelDLG]

Also let's put it this way, I may very well be wrong, but I don't think the trends have moved WI, VA, and NH to the point that, in 2016, Trump is more likely to win WI than the other two.  Not yet.  I apologize because I know VA and NH are considered safe blue around here

[RaphaelDLG]

I do respect your analysis, though, it reflects intelligent thought.  I think Trump is going to have a money disadvantage and the Dems will be POURING money into PA if the race is close.