Police Commisioner Elections : November 2012

[Andrew1]

The consensus seems to be that these elections are a bad idea. But they are happening, so in general I would expect:

Very low turnout / awareness / understanding of voting system

Voting patterns will be similar to local elections, Labour win the mets, northern counties and Wales, Tories win southern counties, etc.

Lib Dems do quite badly, if they even have a candidate

Independents and minor parties may do well, but it would take a remarkably strong campaign for an Independent to win. These are very large areas for an Independent to organise a campaign in.

Having said that the SV system may produce some odd results, one or two Independents may get elected.

I wouldn't be surprised if the post is abolished after one term of office anyway.

[Andrew1]

South Yorkshire: EngDem/UKIP/Con/LD/Lab

Ugh.  I have a particular dislike for the English Democrats, and a sort of paranoid fear involving  them and low turnout SV elections.

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Is that the registered description of a political party?

Yes it is.

Registered specifically for this election by Kevin Hurley of Surrey, listed as party leader in the register.

Curiously one Green is standing despite his party's opposition to elected commissioners.

The English Dems seem to be the only party using an additional slogan: "More Police - Catching Criminals!"

Of the 33 areas that have published lists so far, UKIP have 21 candidates, LDs 20.

Six Independents in Devon & Cornwall is going to be a mess!

[Andrew1]

Suffolk Con/Lab/UKIP/Ind
Gloucs. Con/Lab/LD/Ind
Norfolk Con/Lab/LD/UKIP/Ind
Staffs. Con/Lab
N. Yorks. Con/Lab
Durham Con/Lab/UKIP/Ind
Avon/Som. Con/Lab/LD/Ind
Herts. Con/Lab/LD/UKIP
Lincs. Con/Lab/Ind/Ind/"Campaign to stop politicians running policing"

Two more areas will not have the delights of SV

[Andrew1]

So that's a grand total of:
Con 41
Lab 41
LD 24
UKIP 24
Ind 54
Eng Dems 5
Green 1
BFP 1
Justice & Anti-Corruption 1
Zero Tolerance Policing 1
Campaign to Stop Politicians Running Policing 1

[Andrew1]

Ipsos-MORI have done a poll on the Police Commissioner Elections

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/crime-police-and-crime-commissioners-poll-topline-2012.pdf

Voting intention:
Ind* 30%
Lab 16%
Con 8%
LD 4%
UKIP 1%
Would not vote 27%
Don't know 11%

* Exact wording: "A candidate that is not representing a political party"

38% said they had not even heard of these elections

On a 1-10 scale of likelihood to vote, only 15% answered 10 (absolutely certain to vote)

[Andrew1]

My local polling station in the Avon & Somerset area had 10% turnout by 5pm. Polling stations in the area generally seemed deserted.

Turnout may be higher in Bristol due to the Mayoral election, so we may possibly get up to around 20% turnout overall in Avon & Somerset.

[Andrew1]

In Avon & Somerset the Independent is clearly ahead, with around 40% of first preferences, and seems very likely to win tomorrow

Turnout is around 18%

[Andrew1]

Wiltshire was the only area to count overnight. The Tory won fairly easily, but turnout was under 16%. 

Inds/UKIP got 30% but it was split three ways. Areas with only one Independent will see them do very well.

According to the Bournemouth Echo the Independent is well ahead in Dorset.

[Andrew1]

Looking like the Independent will get about 35% of 1st prefs. in Avon & Somerset. Not clear who will be in the no. 2 spot, but Independent very likely to win on 2nd prefs.

[Andrew1]

Independents win Gwent and Dorset