Ukraine 2014

[Famous Mortimer]

I imagine Yulia Tymoshenko.

I hope she wins, too.

I like Tymoshenko so I hope she doesn't win.

Whoever becomes the next president is going to have to implement EU mandated austerity and will be extremely unpopular very quickly.

[Famous Mortimer]

For what it's worth, Sergei Titipko was one of the people who defected from the POR and voted for impeachment.

[Famous Mortimer]

For what it's worth, Sergei Titipko was one of the people who defected from the POR and voted for impeachment.

Precisely why POR would want to nominate him.

He may not want the POR's nomination though.

Still, he is absolutely the best suited to take the votes of current/former Yanukovych supporters.

[Famous Mortimer]

My take on the likely candidates at this point:

Vitali Klitschko (Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform): The most popular opposition leader. Viewed as being clean. Favored to win. His one drawback is his unabashed economic liberalism, although the voters probably won't realize this until after the election. If and when he does win, he will probably become extremely unpopular extremely quickly, just like with Yushchenko, because he will have to implement EU mandated austerity.

Yulia Tymoshenko (All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland"): Viewed as a corrupt by many in the opposition. What hurts her even more than that though was the sweet gas deal she gave Russia. The same gas deal, however, might allow to her gain significant support in the East, although the current political climate won't allow her to campaign that way. I still say there's a good chance she becomes explicitly pro-Russian once Klitschko inevitably becomes unpopular. This is also a small chance she actually wins this election due to her prison cred.

Serhiy Tihipko (Independent, ex-Party of Regions, ex-Labor Ukraine): Leftist, pro-Russian politician. Came in third with 10% in the last presidential election. His platform was basically "I'm like Yanukovych but I never poisoned anyone." He later joined the Party of Regions but quit shortly before Yanukovych fled and voted for impeachment. He would be a very strong contender in most elections but I doubt an Easterner is going to win this time. Although if an Easterner was to win, it would be him.

Petro Symonenko (Communist Party of Ukraine): Generic pro-Russian Communist. Obviously he won't win but he stands to gain a lot of votes if the pro-Russian side is unorganized. He did, after all, make it to the run-off in the 1999 presidential election. He also stands to gain a lot of protest votes from people who realize the implications of being forced to take IMF loans, although that's not a huge number of people yet.

Oleh Tyahnybok (All-Ukrainian Union "Freedom"): No chance of winning but as leader of one of the three official opposition parties he will have an impact. There's a chance he forgoes running and backs a joint opposition candidate as he is desperate to be seen as mainstream. I doubt Klitschko and Tymoshenko could agree between each other though. In the event of the run-off, Tyahnybok seems to personally favor Tymoshenko but he is ideologically closer to Klitschko.

Natalia Korolevska (Forward Ukraine previously known as the Ukrainian Social Democratic Party): Probably not going to matter but might become a serious candidate in the East if Tihipko doesn't run. Korolevska was a centre-left member of the Tymoshenko bloc who left to support the Yanukovych government. She was previously considered a rising star but suffered when her party just barely missed getting into parliament. Despite not having any seats, she was appointed Minister of Welfare, a position she held right up until the revolution (still holds?)

[Famous Mortimer]

The criticism of how she got her money in the 90s is valid.

I keep seeing that "she's responsible for the failure of the Orange Revolution" which is just BS though.

That was all on Yushchenko. His right-wing economic policies made him unpopular with 90% of the country while Tymoshenko, who opposed further privatization, remained popular with at least 40% of the country. Yushchenko tried to prevent her from becoming PM because he was more popular than him and because she opposed his economic plans. His dragging his feet on giving her the post she won allowed the Party of Regions time to bribe the Socialists in joining their coalition. If he had just appointed her from the start that never would have happened.

[Famous Mortimer]

Basically, Tymoshenko did some bad stuff but it was all stuff that was well known before the Orange Revolution.

[Famous Mortimer]

The newly appointed interim president Oleksandr Turchynov looks like he may run instead of Tymoshenko, he hails from her hometown of Dnipropetrovsk.

Where are you seeing that reported?

[Famous Mortimer]

She said she didn't want to be interim PM. That's different than ruling out a run as a full term, totally empowered head of state or government.

[Famous Mortimer]

Leftist is probably too harsh a word. Tihipko is centre-left. He's definitely more ideologically committed than Yanukovych though, who was basically just pro-corruption. Like I said, Tihipko headed a party called Labour Ukraine, which obviously from its name was an explicitly social democratic group. Also, when Labour Ukraine merged with the Party of Regions after the 2010 elections, originally there was going to be a third party involved, a pro-business party called United Centre (previously The Party of Private Property). Tihipko told Yanukovych he wouldn't be involed if United Centre was and Yank obviously picked Labour Ukraine since it was way bigger. After that, Tihipko was basically in charge of designing the party's ideology. He was the main person responsible for pushing them from an ambiguous party of power into having some links with the PES.

[Famous Mortimer]

Seeing Petro Poroshenko mentioned a lot lately. My thoughts on him:

Poroshenko is an oligarch best known for owning some TV stations. Apparently he also runs or used to run a candy factory and a lot of sources are calling him the "Chocolate King." In the 90s, he was a member of the Social Democratic Party of Ukraine (United), a fake social democratic party for oligarchs. In the 2000s, he founded his own social democratic faction called Solidarity which has been sporadically active. This is all stuff I just learned actually. I would have never guessed he was a social democrat. I knew him because of his role in the Orange Revolution (being one of the main financial backers of Yushchenko) and later  for opposing Our Ukraine's coalition with Tymoshenko. He actually hates Tymoshenko so much that he briefly joined the Party of Regions led cabinet in 2012. I don't imagine he'll be much of a player on his own. He's more of a behind the scenes guy. I suppose he could become a major candidate though if he gets the bump of becoming interim Prime Minister.

[Famous Mortimer]

Party of Regions might be meeting today to pick a candidate. Tihipko has said he is open to being their candidate.

[Famous Mortimer]

Party of Regions had previously announced they were picking a candidate yesterday. I guess they're waiting to see what happens if their entire vote base becomes another country.

I imagine the government is going to have to push back the registration deadline from March 30th.

[Famous Mortimer]

First post-revolution poll and very surprising:

Petro Poroshenko (Solidarity) 30.9%
Vitali Klitschko (Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform) 21.3
Yulia Tymoshenko (Fatherland) 14.1
Serhiy Tihipko (Party of Regions) 9.6
Petro Symonenko (Communist Party of Ukraine) 6.4
Oleh Tyahnybok (Freedom) 3.6
Dmitry Yarosh (Right Sector) 2.3
Viktor Medvedchuk (Ukrainian Choice) 1.3

For Parliament:

Fatherland 22.7
Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform 22.3
Solidarity 18.9
Party of Regions 12.9
Communist Party of Ukraine 7.1
Freedom 6.5
Radical Party Oleg Lyashko 3.7
Ukrainian Choice 1.4
Our Ukraine 0.5

http://www.socis.kiev.ua/ua/press/nove-sotsiolohichnoho-opytuvannja-stanom-z-25-ljutoho-po-4-bereznja-2014.html

[Famous Mortimer]

Doesn't surprise me. While I've always preferred Klitschko Poroshenko would be my second choice.

What do you like about Poroshenko? He's tied to Yushchenko who only won 5% when running for re-election. He's also believed to be behind funding Right Sector.

[Famous Mortimer]

Are they holding snap parliamentary elections too? I feel like they should. I also would assume that Tymoshenko would endorse Klitschko if he made it to the 2nd round and she didn't.

Tymoshenko would endorse the non-Poroshenko candidate in any run-off featuring Poroshenko.

[Famous Mortimer]

Anatoliy Hrytsenko: Former Defense Minister under during the Yushchenko administration. Rather generic conservative. He leads a party called Civil Position. He ran in the 2010 election and won just over 1%. In the second round, he endorsed a blank vote. Despite this, in the 2012 elections, he joined Tymoshenko's Fatherland party and was placed second on the national list, between current PM Yatsenyuk and current President Turchynov. He left the caucus shortly after and now sits as an independent. He's probably taking votes from former voters of Yatsenyuk and Yushchenko, also conservatives who refused to endorse in the 2010 run-off.

Viktor Medvedchuk: Former Head of the Presidential Administration during the second Kuchma administration. Was also leader of the pro-Kuchma Social Democratic Party of Ukraine (United). After he left it faded into obscurity and became a satellite of the Communist Party. Medvedchuk is extremely pro-Russian. Wikipedia says Putin is the godfather of his daughter. He leads a new movement called Ukrainian Choice, referring to Ukrainians' choice to join the Customs Union.

[Famous Mortimer]

The 11 potential Regions candidates are:

Sergei Tigipko

Former Deputy PM Oleksandr Vilkul

Former Kharkiv Governor Mikhail Dobkin

Oligarch and main party funder Rinat Akhmetov

Former PM Mykola Azarov

Nestor Shufrych, former Emergencies Minister. Somewhat of a credible social democrat, having stuck with the Social Democratic Party of Ukraine (United) much longer than it was a credible party.

Dmytro Tabachnyk, former head of the presidential administration under Yanukovych, deputy PM, and most recently education minister.

Hanna Herman, top woman in the Party of Regions.

Volodymyr Rybak, former Speaker of Parliament and deputy PM.

Raisa Bogatyrova, another lady candidate. Previously associated with the Socialist Party of Ukraine.

Oleksandr Yefremov, former governor of Luhansk and parliamentary faction leader.

[Famous Mortimer]

Surprised Hennadiy Kernes wasn't polled.

[Famous Mortimer]

So who's winning in the east?

[Famous Mortimer]

Dmytro Yarosh is in.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ukraines-neo-fascist-right-sector-leader-dmytro-yarosh-run-president-1439324

[Famous Mortimer]

Also re:Parliamentary elections

Fresh ones have not been called and a still tentatively scheduled for 2017.

Klitschko has called for them to be moved up though.

I suspect whoever wins, calling new elections will be one of their first acts.

[Famous Mortimer]

Two interesting articles that back up the idea Putin is supporting Tymoshenko:

Here's one from the government run Voice of Russia that repeats over and over again that Tymoshenko is the only qualified candidate:

http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_03_08/Ukraine-presidential-elections-candidates-have-no-plan-for-restoring-order-4948/

Here's another from the Moscow Times that flat out calls Putin's hinting an endorsement:

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/putins-shrewd-endorsement-of-tymoshenko/495908.html

[Famous Mortimer]

Deadline for registration is coming up, although apparently it has been extended to April 4th.

So far only 4 candidates have submitted papers:

Renat Kuzmin, former Deputy Prosecutor General, who was in charge of the Tymoshenko case

Mikhail Dobkin, former Kharkiv governor, POR member but self nominated

Serhiy Tihipko, again, a POR member but self nominated

Vadim Rabinovich, oligarch and Jewish activist with both Ukrainian and Israeli citizenship

[Famous Mortimer]

Full list of candidates:

Yulia Tymoshenko (Fatherland)
Petro Poroshenko (Independent nominated by UDAR)
Dmytro Yarosh (leader of Right Sector, running as independent)
Oleh Tyahnybok (Freedom)
Vasyl Tsushko (member and former leader of the Socialist Party of Ukraine running as independent, previously Minister of Economy and Interior and head of state anti-monopoly committee)
Petro Symonenko (Communist Party of Ukraine)
Mykola Malomuzh (Independent, former head of External Intelligence under President Yushchenko)
Oleh Lyashko (Radical Party, had previously been a member of the Tymoshenko Bloc)
Renat Kuzmin (Former deputy state prosecutor, in charge of case against Tymoshenko)
Vasyl Kuybida (Head of the People's Movement of Ukraine, traditional conservative party of the West, which had merged with Fatherland before the last parliamentary election but is apparently now independent again)
Natalia Korolevska (Leader of Forward Ukraine aka Ukrainian Social Democratic Party but running as an independent, formerly a member of the Tymoshenko Bloc)
Valeriy Konovalyuk (Independent, former leader of Serhiy Tihipko's Labour Ukraine party)
Anatoliy Hrytsenko (Civil Position)
Yuriy Boyko (member of Party of Regions running as independent)
Serhiy Tihipko (member of Party of Regions running as independent)
Oleg Tsarov (member of Party of Regions running as independent)
Vadim Rabinovich (Independent, rich Jew guy)
Olga Bogomolets (Independent, Maidan doctor, refused Health Ministry in interim government, lady referred to in leaked Estonian Minister's phone call)
Oleksandr Klymenko (leader of the Ukrainian People's Party, right-wing splinter of the People's Movement of Ukraine which had previously merged back into the People's Movement but is now apparently independent again)
Zoran Shkiriak (Independent, former Kiev citycouncilman for Our Ukraine)
Andriy Hrynenko (Independent, rando)
Volodymyr Saranov (Independent, rando) 

[Famous Mortimer]

I'm interested to hear what Olga Bogomolets' actual ideology is. Although I fear she's probably just a neo-liberal with a slightly more sincerely than usual anti-corruption bent.