NYC'13: Congrats to Mayor de Blasio

[morgieb]

Is the winner of the Democratic primary basically guaranteed the mayorship?

[Maxwell]

Is the winner of the Democratic primary basically guaranteed the mayorship?

There have been no general election polls since a certain point, but that's probably accurate.

[Mister Mets]

Joe Lhota is the only candidate who would prefer kittens being run over to delayed subway trains so far, for the record.

It's an odd discussion to have just because of all the disclaimers (IE- "I wasn't calling for the kittens to be killed, just saying that it would be worth the added risk to have the trains run on time"), but it is probably the right call.

Anyone who won't make it shouldn't be mayor.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Actual Madison, WI police incident report from earlier this year:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.cityofmadison.com/police/newsroom/incidentreports/incident.cfm?id=14441

[Eraserhead]

Some more news:

The latest poll has de Blasio leading but Thompson is in a fairly close second place.

http://www.amny.com/urbanite-1.812039/christine-quinn-slips-to-3rd-in-mayoral-race-de-blasio-surges-to-top-amnewyork-news-12-poll-finds-1.5982096

de Blasio - 29%
Thompson - 24%
Quinn -  17%
Weiner - 10%
Liu - 5%
Albanese - 1%
Salgado - 1%

De Blasio leads Quinn by 10% among women but Thompson has a 6% lead over de Blasio among blacks (which could explain why the race is much closer overall according to this poll). De Blasio dominates among voters who call themselves "very liberal". Quinn has a slight edge among hispanics but all of the top four candidates seem competitive among them.

Lhota has a big lead in the GOP Primary in this poll (for whatever it is worth).

Lhota - 50%
Catsimatidis - 28%
McDonald - 5%

Catsimatidis thinks the poll was rigged!

http://politicker.com/2013/08/john-catsimatidis-suggests-newspaper-rigged-its-poll/

Rev. Al Sharpton won't make an endorsement yet because he is undecided between Bill Thompson and Bill de Blasio.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/election/sharpton-torn-thompson-de-blasio-mayor-article-1.1442635

The NY Times is on the attack against de Blasio. Perhaps they're a bit upset that their endorsement of Quinn doesn't seem to have helped her at all?

http://gothamist.com/2013/09/01/times_daily_news_take_shots_at_fron.php

[Maxwell]

oh no Catismatidis can't buy the election waaah

[Lief 🗽]

My girlfriend and I got lunch in Chinatown yesterday and there were a couple of Liu posters lol

[Eraserhead]

Is there any chance at all that they'll do an exit poll for this? It demands one.

[Lief 🗽]

The Quinnipiac poll released this afternoon will show de Blasio over 40%, you heard it here first.

[traininthedistance]

The NY Times is on the attack against de Blasio. Perhaps they're a bit upset that their endorsement of Quinn doesn't seem to have helped her at all?

http://gothamist.com/2013/09/01/times_daily_news_take_shots_at_fron.php

De Blasio's opposition to the outer borough taxi plan is wrong, horribly wrong, wrong for the wrong reasons, and it does gives me pause.  Frankly at this point, I suspect that he will not need my vote to make the runoff and I'll go with Albanese.  Back when it looked like a Weiner-Quinn race, I was all set to tactically vote de Blasio, but the probability of that is now thankfully just about nil.

Of course, if the NYT really wants to ding de Blasio, the best angle they can get is to keep running stories about how he's an unapologetic Red Sox fan.  Really.

[Eraserhead]

The last debate is on at 7 PM ET tonight.

[© tweed]

could Thompson beat de Blasio in a runoff?

[Lief 🗽]

QUINNIPIAC NUMBERS (developing...)

De Blasio: 43%
Thompson: 20%
Quinn 18%

[Lief 🗽]

Run-off numbers:

De Blasio over Quinn 66 - 25 percent
De Blasio leads Thompson 56 - 36 percent
Thompson tops Quinn 59 - 33 percent

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-york-city/release-detail?ReleaseID=1948

[Eraserhead]

Good call, Lief.

So either Quinnipiac is way off or it's over.

[Keystone Phil]

Well, this would be boring if a runoff is avoided.

[Lief 🗽]

Good call, Lief.

So either Quinnipiac is way off or it's over.

I'm willing to bet every one of my Star Wars trading cards that Quinnipiac is way off. I'd be surprised if Thompson doesn't end up closer to the high 20s and they go to a run-off.

[bedstuy]

Good call, Lief.

So either Quinnipiac is way off or it's over.

I'm willing to bet every one of my Star Wars trading cards that Quinnipiac is way off. I'd be surprised if Thompson doesn't end up closer to the high 20s and they go to a run-off.

I wonder why polling of NYC is generally so bad and seems to always under-estimate the black candidate.

[Lief 🗽]

Good call, Lief.

So either Quinnipiac is way off or it's over.

I'm willing to bet every one of my Star Wars trading cards that Quinnipiac is way off. I'd be surprised if Thompson doesn't end up closer to the high 20s and they go to a run-off.

I wonder why polling of NYC is generally so bad and seems to always under-estimate the black candidate.

I would guess something to do with cell phones? But I remember reading that NYC polls has under-estimated black candidates since at least Dinkins, so I really have no idea.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I care less about if there's a runoff or not than if Quinn is truly toast, and as that looks likely I'm pleased. Just beat Quinn and we have an acceptable outcome.

[Lief 🗽]

lol, Fox News is terrified of de Blasio: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pS7rH50gm-M

awesome.

[bedstuy]

lol, Fox News is terrified of de Blasio: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pS7rH50gm-M

awesome.

And, the guy they have on talks about the most recent Batman movie like it was a historical event.  Good grief.

[Miles]

The Quinnipiac poll also shows Stringer up 47-45 over Spitzer.

[bedstuy]

The Quinnipiac poll also shows Stringer up 47-45 over Spitzer.

Really hope Spitzer pulls this one out.  Stringer is absolutely terrible.

[traininthedistance]

The Quinnipiac poll also shows Stringer up 47-45 over Spitzer.

Really hope Spitzer pulls this one out.  Stringer is absolutely terrible.

I'm honestly still undecided on the Comptroller's race, largely due to not paying much attention to it (and a general impression that there's not much daylight between the two).  What makes Stringer so bad?