Logically you're spot on methinks... but as these are the two Cajun districts...
The "conventional wisdom" is wrong more than it is right in Louisiania.
03
should go to the GOP, 07 is really hard to call.
Both 03 and 07 got really sunstantially redistricted in 2000 and in 2002 both had what were essentially uncontested House races so we really have no voting "baseline" in the new Boundries.
Making things more complicated is the fact that both "primaries" held on Nov 2nd were very very bitter with both the GOP and Dems having TWO strong contenders in each seat, so their is a lot of fratracidial "bad blood" within both parties.
Who knows in LA 07... flipping a coin has a 50/50 chance which is about as good as any other anaylsis you are likely to see.