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I used to think GA and it's not even close. But after Alsobrooks winning by more than 12%, I believe that polling are hard to reach blacks, and likely youth. The current Trump winning black 30% and even among youth is wrong for sure. As the result, I am not so confident about GA.

I am also not so sure about NV. The Trump +13 poll is absurd, but Trump may be ahead of Biden. I am shocked by CCM winning in 22, and not too sure how 24 would be a better environment.

I think the most likely flip is either GA or NV, which slightly favor Trump. AZ and WI are toss ups. PA and MI slightly favor Biden. NC clearly favors Trump and it's very unlikely it will flip.

I’d put Michigan and Pennsylvania as toss-ups as well. How could these 2 be lean Biden at minimum wherein Polls show a deadheat in Michigan and Biden hasn’t led in a poll in Pennsylvania since March?

Polls are inaccurate, especially on blacks and youth.

if polls are inaccurate, what’s the basis of the posters here on placing Michigan and Pennsylvania as lean Biden? through conventional wisdom? or purely wishcasting? gut feeling can also be as inaccurate as polling too.

Option 5.

Am amazed that a thread about GASP the end of free soda refills is three pages. Says a lot about America.

The only direct evidence that Trump knew about the scheme to falsify the business records is Cohen's testimony. So if they can convince jurors that his testimony can't be trusted that might given them reasonable doubt as to Trump's knowledge of the scheme. And they definitely showed that he has lied about a lot of things in the past. Not saying it's enough to doubt his testimony (not like we weren't expecting it), or to conclude there isn't enough other circumstantial evidence that Trump knew they were falsified, but it's the biggest glove they've laid on the prosecution's case so far.

The thing is, even if Cohen is slimey and has lied about some things, the point at the end of the day is - you don't need to believe Cohen 100% in everything he says, you just have to believe Cohen when he talks about the Trump records part of it. And given the other circumstantial evidence that supports Cohens claims, that at least backs up Cohens claims about that situation, outside of whether Cohen is telling the truth about other things.

Right, all kinds of organized crime convictions occur where the key witnesses are deeply immoral and dishonest people. What matters is if his testimony fits the outline of facts which it does. "This person has lied before" is not the big own they think it is, I mean he was Trump's lawyer so no **** what do you expect?

Even red avs are buying into Republicans bad faith muddying of facts here because they've been so persistent about it.

We've become accustomed to disappointment and expecting the worst out of our legal system, and fellow citizens.

McDonalds is still super-cheap if you make efficient use of their deals and coupons in their app.

You can come across good deals once in awhile, but it certainly does not come out to super-cheap (except perhaps the breakfast deals). The problem with the app deals is that you can only use one at a time. They replaced their dollar/value menu with these so-called deals. When they stopped selling $1 sodas last year, they replaced it with an app deal. So, you used to be able to use a deal for whatever you wanted and get a soda for $1. Now, you have to choose one or the other, which means you're paying more.

The Roberts Court is a disgrace.

If John Roberts actually cared about America or his own legacy he’d resign right now so that Biden can appoint someone to make the Court more balanced.

Not how the Court works. The Court isn't supposed to be at the beck and call of either party. There have been conservative courts and progressive courts.

Want to change the makeup of the Court? Make sure you vote in November.

Putin in China:

Putin says Russian army has no orders to capture Kharkiv, troops are creating "sanitary zone" near the border

The president announced this at a briefing following the Russian-Chinese negotiations in Harbin. According to Putin, the offensive in the Kharkov direction is connected with the creation of a sanitary zone in response to shelling. There are currently no plans to take control of Kharkov.

https://t.me/ostorozhno_novosti/26238

The Roberts Court is a disgrace.

If John Roberts actually cared about America or his own legacy he’d resign right now so that Biden can appoint someone to make the Court more balanced.

The OP picked the wrong guy to jerk off to.

Not jerking off to anyone, but I see a lot more pathways for Trump to win than I do Biden. At this point I don't particularly care which wins as I don't feel either truly deserve it. I just want the campaign to be over. My life isn't really going to be any different on December 1st as it is today.

But, I see a lot of inadequacies and in competencies in the Trump campaign and I find such frustrating. When it's a candidates election to lose, and they're not doing anything really to win, that's stupid. And illogical.

Amazing how a Tory MP talks and Labour talking points come out. "The Shadow Chancellor stands for exactly the same as the last Labour government", come on guys, how out of touch can you be?!
https://twitter.com/GullisJonathan/status/1791393845722137061