The absentee/early vote thread

[BoAtlantis]

To follow up on Assembly,

[BoAtlantis]

Looking at it from this pov, it doesn't seem like a doom yet for Democrats in Iowa.

[BoAtlantis]

We need more time to observe but what a weird trend in OH right now.

[BoAtlantis]

It's explained that Ohio GOP cut back early voting.

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Ah, that explains the lag. Thanks!

[BoAtlantis]

http://plunderbund.com/2016/10/20/hillarys-vp-sen-tim-kaine-tells-ohioans-2016-election-in-the-palm-of-their-hands/

“Voter turnout in Franklin County, home to state capital Columbus, is robust with more than 9,300 votes cast in person in the first four days, a 80 percent boost over the same period in 2012. Democrats have invested heavily in vote by mail efforts, and that appears to be paying off. The five Ohio counties with the largest vote by mail requests so far are Cuyahoga [home to Cleveland], Franklin, Hamilton [home to Cincinnati], Montgomery [home to Dayton] and Summit. Together they account for more than 40 percent of current ballot requests across the entire state. These five counties are likely to go for Hillary Clinton by similar or larger margins than President Obama’s 2012 results.”

That's nice, but I'm confused because @ElectProject says doom and gloom in Ohio, and CNN too.

There is no way to confirm it, but there has been some rumbling that turnout is down in the Republican areas of Cuyahoga and Franklin counties.

True, it could mean Republicans in those counties are dragging down it down much more while Democrats are not lagging too badly. Obama held on to OH despite declining absentee ballot requests in Cuyahoga and Franklin from 2008 to 2012.

I can only hope massive new voters, who skew young and tend to vote in-person rather than through absentee, are the reasons why absentee requests are down in those areas.

[BoAtlantis]

So as of 5:00 the total in NC on the first day of Early Voting is 137,000 votes down from 167,000 on the first day in 2012. But we are still 12 minutes away from poll closings.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NCSBE/status/789225125732376576

137k number was because 7 counties weren't reporting.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NCSBE/status/789490910732099584

To follow up,

"In NC, 164,207 early votes cast on 1st day Thursday. In 2012, 166,943 votes on first day of early voting."

[BoAtlantis]

In 4 days, Dems have moved to a tie in FL and narrowed the gap in GA a lot. Narrow movement in the other states.

Trending more Republican the last couple of days. One exception is NV.

Could it be that the "undecided" closet Trump leaners sent in their ballots after watching the 3rd debate?

[BoAtlantis]

My guess is that the true believers are coming out for Trump with in person voting, but it should revert to traditional trends of Democrats dominating early voting. TargetSmart's #s look weird/outdated for North Carolina, unless they think white Dems are Republicans this year...

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/789477974353518592
Registered Republicans were only 24% of 1st day in person voters.

That's probably worse for them than 2012, and we still have Souls to the Polls to expand the advantage. In Iowa, the best analyst is Pat Rynard (the Iowa Starting Line guy). He recently posted that the Democrats are recovering their position and starting to impose their will in the ground game after falling behind early.

You may be right.

[BoAtlantis]

Just a note:

In the Austrian Presidential runoff, a record number of postal ballots was requested (ca. 900.000) and the left-wing candidate won 2/3 of them (incl. my vote).

Yet on election day, the far-right populist candidate won the precinct vote by 52-48 (precinct votes were 85% of the total vote, postal votes were around 15%).

Overall, the result was about 50-50 in the end.

So, despite Dems doing well with the early vote it means nothing about how the overall vote will end up, as Trump's voters are the ones who will most likely vote strongly on election day - rather than early by postal ballot.

It also has to be put in context with polls. In 2014, Democrats were expected to lose the senate and only got false hope from the early signs but got crushed anyway.

This year seems to dovetail nicely with the polls with IA and OH requests being down, which are confirmed by polls to be Trump's strongest swing states; Republicans' requests being down in NC, which seems to confirm that Hillary is leading him there.

[BoAtlantis]

Frank Luntz ‏@FrankLuntz  31m31 minutes ago
Early vote returns in FLORIDA so far

• Democrats:  305,700 in 2016 (111,471 in 2008)
• Republicans: 314,301 in 2016 (176,855 in 2008)

I'm more curious about 2012

GOP was up by about 5.5 points at this time in 2012 in VBM

yup down from 2012 at 3% spread, but electproject has the spread at 5% so more inline with 2012.

They are supposed to be up bigger considering this.

"In Florida, the state implemented a 2012 law that makes an absentee ballot request good for all elections through the calendar year of the second ensuing general election. Effectively, anyone requesting a mail ballot in 2014 or since was automatically added to the list of ballot requests for the November 8, 2016 election. This policy was unavailable prior to 2012, so it is impossible to make a reliable comparison to 2012."

[BoAtlantis]

Glad to hear strong numbers from NV

As for OH, it seems that Hillary's team is optimistic about the state.

http://m.dailykos.com/story/2016/10/22/1585592/-Some-Good-Initial-Signs-from-Ohio-Early-Voting-for-Clinton

"Although the total # of absentee ballot requests in OH is down from 2012, a greater proportion of those requests are coming from the 5 big Dem counties (Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton, Montgomery and Summit).  Dems have thus far increased their advantage in returned ballots as compared to 2012.

More people voted during in person early voting in the first 4 days than over a similar period in 2012 (Hillary stated this in her speech in Cleveland), particularly in Hamilton County (Cincinnati) and Franklin County (Columbus). The campaign is expecting that the total vote and margin in those 2 counties will exceed Obama’s margins in 2012."

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/790204516515799041

"Dems have a 13,500 raw vote lead statewide after the first day of early/mail voting in Nevada:
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4531 …
Full post coming."

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/790577926819442688

In first four hours of early voting in bellwether Hillsborough County, FL, Dems have a 49-35% lead in voters.  #enthusiasmgap

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/790577513235881984

In conservative Duval County, FL, the GOP was +3,000 in VBM ballots over two weeks of voting.  In 4 hours of Early Vote, Dems are up 500.

[BoAtlantis]

A lot of the Republican areas in WI can start voting today finally. Will get in after work to get my Clinton/Feingold/Ryan vote in.

It would be good if WI tracks by party affiliation. At least it's safe to say Republicans will close the gap that Milwaukee and Dane built.

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/790586145776148480

"Bottom line in NV after two days: Dems have an 18-pt lead in early voting. They only have a 6-pt lead in voter reg."

[BoAtlantis]

Busy day for TX

https://twitter.com/JMilesKHOU/status/790601122343858176

"Harris Co Clerk: 9000-10000 people voting, on average, per hour right now on 1st early voting day"

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/steveschale?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

"And in Duval County, FL, which hasn't voted for Dem for POTUS since 1976, Dems have a 1K vote lead on day 1 of early voting."

"Day 1 EV so far is +13 Dem.  
All EV/VBM so far is +7 Dem -- but definitely growing.
Countywide reg overall is +7 Dem."

He's talking about Hillsborough^

"Low propensity voters make up about 27% of FL Dem VBM so far. GOP about 21%. Total about +30K. Dems are expanding contrary to GOP narrative."

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/790577926819442688

In first four hours of early voting in bellwether Hillsborough County, FL, Dems have a 49-35% lead in voters.  #enthusiasmgap

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/790577513235881984

In conservative Duval County, FL, the GOP was +3,000 in VBM ballots over two weeks of voting.  In 4 hours of Early Vote, Dems are up 500.

Update on the above

"First day EV in bellwether Hillsborough County, FL: Dem win 49-34.  Increased total early vote lead by about 60%."

"In conservative Duval County, FL GOP had 3k vote lead in two weeks of VBM.  Dems cut it in half on day one of early vote: +1700 Dem today."

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.wfaa.com/mb/news/politics/early-voting-opening-shatters-turnout-records-in-n-texas/340992867

On the first day of early voting,

"In Tarrant County, that number was more than 43,000.

"In Tarrant County, 30,133 voters went to the polls on the first day of early voting in 2012 and 28,757 went on the first day of early voting in 2008.

In Collin County, that number was more than 30,000.

In Collin County, 16,531 votes were cast on the first day of early voting in 2012 and 13,900 went on the first day of early voting in 2008."

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/790734852152778753

"6.35% of absentee ballots cast in FL coming from millennials. 50% are Dem, 31% are GOP."

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/790733440060710912

"Enthusiasm gap in FL? 1.2MM absentee votes cast thus far- 12.2% of Dem AV voting in their first general election, compared to 9.4% of GOP AV"

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/790876709709053956

"Still not sure why media is reporting OH early vote as favoring Trump. Seeing an 11% modeled party D advantage. 7% are first time voters."

"That's ballot request data though, ballots automatically went out to '12/'14 voters. Return data better, still lagging in Cle/Col...........

"Well, in Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties, yes. But seeing uptick in smaller Dem counties (Mahoning, Trumbull, Athens)."

OH curtailed early voting days by 7 days but they also sent out AB mails automatically to 2012/2014 voters? Can any Ohioan confirm this?

[BoAtlantis]

Sorry if anyone posted this already but here is the summary of 1st day in TX.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/790772883450568704

"My back of the napkin: Early voting up by average of 57% today in Texas' five biggest counties compared to first early voting day in 2012"

[BoAtlantis]

Per Steve Schale,

"More Democrats have voted in Broward County today (+12,000) than Republicans have voted in Indian River over two weeks (7,500)."

"Already 20,000 more people in Broward County, FL have in person early voted today.  Roughly 3:1 Democratic so far."

[BoAtlantis]

It's one thing to take at face value the data in states that show partisan affiliation, massive numbers of newly-registered Democrats and unlikely Democrats voting, but in states where we don't have that specific data yet, I'd be cautious about celebrating higher early vote totals compared to four years ago. Between every two comparable election cycles over the past 10+ years, early vote totals have tended to increase, but it's just mainly Election Day vote being cannibalized.

In Florida's case, Steve Schale says

"Finally, with the help of a friend yesterday, I looked into the question of whether Democrats were simply "canibalizing" their traditional vote by encouraging its traditional voters to vote early in person and by mail.

Two points: First, even if that's all they did, Clinton would almost surely win Florida. Republicans need to expand the electorate to win.

But, that isn't what is happening. Over 28% of Democratic vote by mail returnees as of yesterday were either first time voters, or rare voters (voted in 1 of last 3), compared to 20% for Republicans. Other way of looking at it: 80% of GOP vote by mail returns are from the most likely voters, compared to 72% of Democrats. That is voter expansion."

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/

Overall story is that the GOP is picking up fast.

The Black vote is now 77% vs the comparable period (75% last update). Whites are now 108% (was 102%).

If you look at this image, Democrats are somewhat behind their 2012 pace but nothing terrifying considering the restricted locations. Black votes will probably pick up the pace eventually with more open locations.

The higher share of whites isn't as bad of news for Hillary as one might think, since she will earn higher share of educated whites this year than Obama.

Also unaffiliated #'s are higher this year than in 2012. Many unaffiliated are youngsters that are voting for Hillary.