The absentee/early vote thread

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Starting to pick up nicely

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject 2h2 hours ago

With a slew of updates today from #APElecRsch and states, at least 410,933 people have voted in the 2016 election http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/784470654091419648

According to Nate Cohn/Upshot, at this point in mail voting, Romney was up 24. Trump is only up 1 among those who have returned mail ballots.

[Ozymandias]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/784470654091419648

According to Nate Cohn/Upshot, at this point in mail voting, Romney was up 24. Trump is only up 1 among those who have returned mail ballots.

That's not quite right-- he said that his model predicts that TRUMP would have been up +24 if the same exact people who voted early by mail by this point in 2012 also were the only ones who voted early by mail so far this year.

So presumably Romney would have been up even more...

[/]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  1m1 minute ago
Real improvement for Dems in Maine CD-2 compared to past updates, might expect polling improvement there

Referencing chart available here:

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/784418320812343299

Based off of that chart, it looks like the second district will trend towards Trump, but definitely not enough for him to win it.

[dspNY]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/784470654091419648

According to Nate Cohn/Upshot, at this point in mail voting, Romney was up 24. Trump is only up 1 among those who have returned mail ballots.

Hillary is working Trump on the ground in NC

[HillOfANight]

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article106618097.html

Wisconsin: Numbers compiled by the state Elections Commission show that as of Friday, 70,740 absentee ballots have been returned statewide. Of those, 22,511 were from either Milwaukee or Dane counties, or about 31 percent of the total cast statewide. By comparison, in the heavily Republican suburban Milwaukee counties of Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington, only 6,420 early votes have been cast.

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article106618097.html

Wisconsin: Numbers compiled by the state Elections Commission show that as of Friday, 70,740 absentee ballots have been returned statewide. Of those, 22,511 were from either Milwaukee or Dane counties, or about 31 percent of the total cast statewide. By comparison, in the heavily Republican suburban Milwaukee counties of Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington, only 6,420 early votes have been cast.

Are there comparable 2008 or 2012 data for ballots cast as of this point for WI?

[Wells]

The current map of early voting by party this year:

Dems 34
Reps 29
Began 127
No votes 348

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there data on what % of eligible voters have cast a vote in each State?

[BoAtlantis]

‏@LatinoDecisions
Stunning partisan reversal among Cuban Americans in Hialeah, FL:
Voter reg thru 2012: +13 Rep
Voter reg in 2016: +12 Dem
via @electionsmith



Seems like Cubans are turning against him in FL.

[BoAtlantis]

New Democrats registration outnumber Republicans registration in most age category in NC.

[Holmes]

New Democrats registration outnumber Republicans registration in most age category in NC.

Nice. If this holds, we can see North Carolina become Dem > Indie > GOP in registration in the long run. Bad sign for Republicans there.

[dspNY]

After Palm Beach County finally updated its ballot requests, Democrats have narrowed the Republican advantage in statewide VBM ballot requests to approximately 87,600

GOP: 1,130,494 (41.9%)
Dem: 1,042,897 (38.6%)
Ind/NPA: 459,465 (17.0%)
Other: 65,689 (2.4%)

[Holmes]

After Palm Beach County finally updated its ballot requests, Democrats have narrowed the Republican advantage in statewide VBM ballot requests to approximately 87,600

GOP: 1,130,494 (41.9%)
Dem: 1,042,897 (38.6%)
Ind/NPA: 459,465 (17.0%)
Other: 65,689 (2.4%)

Florida's gone for Trump, especially after yesterday.

[Ebsy]

After Palm Beach County finally updated its ballot requests, Democrats have narrowed the Republican advantage in statewide VBM ballot requests to approximately 87,600

GOP: 1,130,494 (41.9%)
Dem: 1,042,897 (38.6%)
Ind/NPA: 459,465 (17.0%)
Other: 65,689 (2.4%)

RIP Statespoll's methodically plotted calculations.

[Cruzcrew]

After Palm Beach County finally updated its ballot requests, Democrats have narrowed the Republican advantage in statewide VBM ballot requests to approximately 87,600

GOP: 1,130,494 (41.9%)
Dem: 1,042,897 (38.6%)
Ind/NPA: 459,465 (17.0%)
Other: 65,689 (2.4%)

RIP Statespoll's methodically plotted calculations.

RIP Likely R Florida

[Gass3268]

488K new registration forms submitted by the Florida Democratic Party; 60K by the Florida Republican Party

[dspNY]

488K new registration forms submitted by the Florida Democratic Party; 60K by the Florida Republican Party

That could be worth 3-4 points. A gap that big is a structural shift in the electorate. About 8.5 million voted in the 2012 election in FL

[dspNY]

Florida VBM requests: Democrats narrow Republican edge to 80K

GOP: 1,126,999 (41.7%)
DEM: 1,046,634 (38.7%)
IND: 461,857 (17.1%)
Others: 65,717 (2.4%)

[HillOfANight]

488K new registration forms submitted by the Florida Democratic Party; 60K by the Florida Republican Party

That could be worth 3-4 points. A gap that big is a structural shift in the electorate. About 8.5 million voted in the 2012 election in FL

What does this even mean though? Are these last minute forms being dumped, or are they already baked in the numbers?

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/os-voter-registration-campaign-20160914-story.html
If it's baked in already, they have already been losing ground.

[StatesPoll]

After Palm Beach County finally updated its ballot requests, Democrats have narrowed the Republican advantage in statewide VBM ballot requests to approximately 87,600

GOP: 1,130,494 (41.9%)
Dem: 1,042,897 (38.6%)
Ind/NPA: 459,465 (17.0%)
Other: 65,689 (2.4%)

RIP Statespoll's methodically plotted calculations.

wrong.

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

10/09/2016 10:04AM

FL Vote-by-Mail (Voted)
Total 28412 votes
REP 13338 (46.94%) | DEM 9659 (33.99%)

Still 12.95% ahead

Romney(October 16th 2012): Rep + 4%
TRUMP (October 9th 2012): Rep + 12.95%

News was written at October 16th, 2012
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/15/1144854/-Dems-well-positioned-in-Florida-outworking-Republicans-relative-to-2008

The Republicans lead Democrats when it comes to absentee votes cast, about 126,000 to 114,000. In percentage terms, Republicans lead Democrats 44-40 percent..  Republican +4%

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

After Palm Beach County finally updated its ballot requests, Democrats have narrowed the Republican advantage in statewide VBM ballot requests to approximately 87,600

GOP: 1,130,494 (41.9%)
Dem: 1,042,897 (38.6%)
Ind/NPA: 459,465 (17.0%)
Other: 65,689 (2.4%)

RIP Statespoll's methodically plotted calculations.

wrong.

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

10/09/2016 10:04AM

FL Vote-by-Mail (Voted)
Total 28412 votes
REP 13338 (46.94%) | DEM 9659 (33.99%)

Still 12.95% ahead

Romney(October 16th 2012): Rep + 4%
TRUMP (October 9th 2012): Rep + 12.95%

News was written at October 16th, 2012
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/15/1144854/-Dems-well-positioned-in-Florida-outworking-Republicans-relative-to-2008

The Republicans lead Democrats when it comes to absentee votes cast, about 126,000 to 114,000. In percentage terms, Republicans lead Democrats 44-40 percent..  Republican +4%

sample sizes m'dear

[Ozymandias]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  3m3 minutes ago
My roundup of early voting for the week ending 10/8:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-a-month-to-g_b_12424562.html

[Ebsy]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  3m3 minutes ago
My roundup of early voting for the week ending 10/8:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-a-month-to-g_b_12424562.html

He bizarrely thinks Des Moines is in Dallas County (it's actually in Polk).

[Gass3268]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  3m3 minutes ago
My roundup of early voting for the week ending 10/8:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-a-month-to-g_b_12424562.html

He bizarrely thinks Des Moines is in Dallas County (it's actually in Polk).

Also says that CD-1 is a good representation for Southeast Wisconsin. That being said, mistakes happen.