What are some tied (269 to 269) map scenarios? And the candidates?
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  What are some tied (269 to 269) map scenarios? And the candidates?
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Author Topic: What are some tied (269 to 269) map scenarios? And the candidates?  (Read 1458 times)
retromike22
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« on: December 07, 2014, 04:05:37 PM »
« edited: December 07, 2014, 04:07:12 PM by retromike22 »



Walker/Portman vs. O'Malley/Gillibrand
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: December 07, 2014, 04:40:22 PM »

That one is by far the most likely possibility.  Although Hillary would be less likely to carry CO and lose WI than other Democrats.  This one is a little out there, but it is probably the next best possibility:



Hillary/Virginian vs. Ryan/Toomey
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IceSpear
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« Reply #2 on: December 07, 2014, 04:56:42 PM »

A tie with Hillary seems extremely unlikely due to her relative strength/weakness in particular states. For example, in the first map, she probably loses Colorado. In the second, it's doubtful she loses Pennsylvania.
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LeBron
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« Reply #3 on: December 07, 2014, 10:44:00 PM »



Gillibrand/Brown vs. Bush/Sandoval.

Granted, I don't think either one of these will be a party's ticket in 2016, but this is considered the most likely scenario for a 269 tie in the electoral college. None of these scenarios would involve Hillary running though. For map 1, there's absolutely no way Hillary loses WI and wins CO. Map 2 - very, very unlikely Hillary loses PA, WI and manages to win FL. And for my map, NV and VA are trending Democrat and it would be close to impossible for Hillary to lose those.

The electoral tie is kind of overrated anyways. In 2012 there were several media outlets who were discussing how Obama/Romney could end in a tie because of how close the election would be; only for Obama to blow Romney out of the water in EVs.
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solarstorm
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« Reply #4 on: December 09, 2014, 05:02:16 AM »



Warren/Schweitzer vs. Kasich/Rubio
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #5 on: December 09, 2014, 04:20:07 PM »

Christie/Kasich vs. Clinton/Kaine



Tried to get creative.
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henster
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« Reply #6 on: December 09, 2014, 07:14:32 PM »

Clinton/Kaine vs. Walker/Kasich 269-269



IA, WI, VA, CO, FL are all within a 1 point victory on either side. Redux of 2004 in IA, Walker ekes out a victory in his home states by a couple thousand votes basically '04 in reverse. Fairfax saves Hillary in VA ala Warner '14 victory and Denver/Boulder saves Hillary in CO as well. Hillary wins the PV by a million or so votes (CA, NY, IL)
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zorkpolitics
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« Reply #7 on: December 13, 2014, 02:47:44 PM »

Of course, any tie in the Electoral College, is almost certainly a victory for the GOP Presidential candidate.

In case of a tie (or lack of a winner due to a third party candidate), the House votes by states, and the winning candidate needs 25 votes. 

Currently, 33 states have a majority GOP House delegation while only 14 states have a majority Democratic delegation (3 states are split evenly and DC has no vote).  Although it won't be the current House voting, but rather the newly elected Congress, if the election is close enough to be a tie, its highly likely the GOP retains a majority of state delegations.

Does anyone think any congressman would break from their party and vote for the other party's candidate, in particular will any GOP congressmen from states a Democrat might win (MI, PA, WI, NV, VA) vote for a Democratic candidate?
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