Will the 2012 Election be a repeat of...

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

1980.

An incompetent, out of depth Democrat incapable of  turning around a disastrous economy is defeated by a competent former Republican Governor.

Except the difference between then and now is as follows.
1.No charismatic and well liked challenger (George Bush 41 like you said)
2. No major foreign policy disasters (Iran hostage crisis)
3. No huge spike in gas prices
4.No personally unpopular incumbent
5. Economic crisis happened under Carter's watch. Obama's crisis happened 2 years before he took the oath.
6.There was no base of Democratic support in the 70's and early 80's. Just like the GOP had no base in the 30s and 40s. Now the Democrats have the Blue Wall. The North East, Pacific West, and part of the Rust Belt (Minnesota and Illinois). That's 201 electoral votes that are staying with us.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Now the Democrats have the Blue Wall. The North East, Pacific West, and part of the Rust Belt (Minnesota and Illinois). That's 201 electoral votes that are staying with us.

Republicans have some safe states too. Here's my estimation (as you can see, the Red Wall and the Blue Wall are of approximately equal size):

Note also that there's no such thing as absolutely safe: yes, Obama won Indiana in 2008, but neither Minnesota nor New Mexico is out of reach for the Republicans in the event of a landslide of equal proportions. Republicans are actually ahead 191-190, but if you take a single congressional district in Nebraska, send it to Tossup, and then take one in Maine and send it to safe Democrat those numbers are flipped; it doesn't matter. The point is the two 'Walls' are of equal size. American politics is designed to have two equally large parties at all times. Who comprises which party shifts over time. Except for occasional tremors (the last of which was the electoral Great Depression period, roughly starting with the election of 1932 and ending with 1938), the two parties have always been equal, and always will be.

To answer the thread's question, none of the above. 2012 is not a replay of anything and seems to be its own election more than anything else. It would be more interesting if the candidates were playing speed chess instead of chess.

Minnesota is not part of the Blue Wall. And Georgia, South Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, and Arizona are sure as heck not a part of the Red Wall. The map looks more like this if you look at demographics as well as polling from 2008 and 2012.

The GOP has 16 states and Democrats have 14 states. But the Democrats have 53 more electoral votes because the GOP's base of support are old, rural, and uneducated voters, and who has the most of those? The Great Plains and Deep South. While the Democrats' base are more urban, young, and more educated. Therefore, the North East and Pacific West. The Rust Belt is a mix of both. As you can see, the East Coast is gonna be a Sea of Blue within the next 20 years.
Blue Wall 183 Red Wall 130 Tossup 244

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

And a 1984-style re-election for Obama with the current demographic trends and polarization would look a lot like this.

Obama 471
Romney 67
I added about 5-6 percent of the vote to Obama from the 2008 election results. That flips Missouri, Montana, Georgia, South Carolina, and the Dakotas. Hispanics could help Obama carry Arizona and Texas. That is a gain of 93 electoral votes. I don't think anyone will be able to crack 500 for a while.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

South Carolina is most definitely part of the Red Wall.  McCain won South Carolina by 9 points.  Everything points to Obama not doing as well in 2012 as he did in 2008, the only question is how much worse than 2008 will he do. And last but not least, even if By some miracle, Obama were to gain a 10 point national swing, he'd still lose.  We have a highly polarized electorate here. The only way Obama has a chance of winning South Carolina is if Johnson and/or Goode take large chunks of the vote away from Romney,

Georgia also ought to be counted as part of the Red Wall.  While it would go for Obama if he were able to conjure up a 400+EV landslide this year, that ain't happening.

In South Carolina, Obama got 45 percent of the vote, to McCain's 54. And the last South Carolina poll had Obama up 3 over Romney, 45-42. In a 9 point swing Obama would get 54 percent of the vote, so no, its not part of the Red Wall. And Georgia, Obama got 47 percent to McCain's 52. He only lost by 3 points. Demographic shifts means Georgia will probably be a swing state in about 2020. Remember, 4 years ago, the thought of Obama taking Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina would have gotten someone smacked down on this forum. Face it, the GOP's base is dying out, and young people are overwhelmingly Democratic. The GOP needs to branch out.