NH-Marist: Hassan +4

[Morning in Atlas]

Ayotte's problem is that the western part of NH is starting to vote like its neighbor Vermont.

Eh. Hassan won 55/45, Welch won 64/31. Not really sure this is the case. Her problem might be that NH is a slightly leans-D state in a neutral year.

He said the western part of NH, not the state as a whole - and IndyRep is actually right on the dot here. Hassan won around 62/36 in Cheshire, Sullivan, Grafton, and Coos Counties - fairly similar to Welsh's margin. Hell, even in 2010 when Ayotte swept all counties, she barely broke 50% in Cheshire, and couldn't break it in Grafton. Weirdly enough Coos was Shaheen's best county last year by about two percent (especially considering they're more GOP-friendly downballot), but I'm guessing the carpetbagging issue rang harder in the North Country than it did in the southeastern part of the state where most of the Mass transplants are.

Any idea why NH (especially the western part) is trending blue? Demographics can't explain it.

Western NH has always been fairly similar to Vermont politically - especially before 2000. It's not exactly religious Sullivan isn't trending as quickly as the rest of the counties, and they aren't trending as quickly as Vermont. However, the trend is still clearly there, and combining that with Hillsborough's slow Democratic bounce-back spells for New Hampshire becoming a light-blue state. You will probably be able to see Collins-types get elected and sweep here, but unless Ayotte is a better campaigner than I thought she is, she'll probably be out by 2028.

[windjammer]

Ayotte's problem is that the western part of NH is starting to vote like its neighbor Vermont.

Eh. Hassan won 55/45, Welch won 64/31. Not really sure this is the case. Her problem might be that NH is a slightly leans-D state in a neutral year.

She will be out after 2022, she supports term limits!

He said the western part of NH, not the state as a whole - and IndyRep is actually right on the dot here. Hassan won around 62/36 in Cheshire, Sullivan, Grafton, and Coos Counties - fairly similar to Welsh's margin. Hell, even in 2010 when Ayotte swept all counties, she barely broke 50% in Cheshire, and couldn't break it in Grafton. Weirdly enough Coos was Shaheen's best county last year by about two percent (especially considering they're more GOP-friendly downballot), but I'm guessing the carpetbagging issue rang harder in the North Country than it did in the southeastern part of the state where most of the Mass transplants are.

Any idea why NH (especially the western part) is trending blue? Demographics can't explain it.

Western NH has always been fairly similar to Vermont politically - especially before 2000. It's not exactly religious Sullivan isn't trending as quickly as the rest of the counties, and they aren't trending as quickly as Vermont. However, the trend is still clearly there, and combining that with Hillsborough's slow Democratic bounce-back spells for New Hampshire becoming a light-blue state. You will probably be able to see Collins-types get elected and sweep here, but unless Ayotte is a better campaigner than I thought she is, she'll probably be out by 2028.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Hassan doesn't seem to me as someone interested in the Congress.

[Morning in Atlas]

Hassan doesn't seem to me as someone interested in the Congress.

She's not. She loves NH (and her hometown) too much to go to Washington - especially considering she has a disabled son to take care of.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems dont have to have NH, should Strickland choses to run. Dems will have the needed 4 seat pickup opportunity to take control. But, in case he doesnt run, this state is needed.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Democrats should get Martha Coakley to run against Ayotte.

[The Other Castro]

Dems dont have to have NH, should Strickland choses to run. Dems will have the needed 4 seat pickup opportunity to take control. But, in case he doesnt run, this state is needed.

Having a technical 50 seat majority is worthless when 60 votes are going to be needed anyway, and regardless, Democrats would just lose it two years later. They need every seat they can get in 2016 and then some.