Israel and Palestine: The One-State Solution

[Vosem]

Ultimately, I think a one-state solution is the answer; Gaza will be cut loose to be an independent city-state whereas most or all of the West Bank will simply become part of the Israeli state (probably all, since the border with Jordan is actually one of the Jewish areas while the majority-Palestinian ones are all inland), with the Palestinians being at least offered citizenship. Such a state can quite plausibly remain democratic and majority-Jewish (though nowhere near as monolithically as current Israel, of course). Offering a national homeland for both Jews (who would form a majority) and the native peoples of the area would be more consistent in any case with the vision of Ze'ev Jabotinsky.

You realize that such a state would, nearly necessarily, have governing coalitions including "Arab" (non-Zionist) parties. And these parties would, at the very least, demand recognition of their community's equality in the joint state. Also, in such a state non-Haredi Jews will be in minority pretty soon, if not from the beginning. Both absolutely fine by me, of course, but would most Zionist Israelis be equally happy about it?

Doubt it, especially since from a socioeconomic point of view Arabs will probably have significantly worse turnout than Israelis. Most likely, the Israeli left and right will be tied together in a permanent coalition -- perhaps even a single party -- that would hopefully adopt the best characteristics of both. Arabs who join parties within this coalition (the way, historically, up until the 1990s they pretty solidly supported Avoda) would be part of the government, along the lines of whites in the ANC. After a few decades of receiving the benefits from living in a First World state, they will hopefully stop supporting non-Zionist parties (or, more likely, the non-Zionist parties will simply be paying lip service to the idea of being non-Zionist). Happy ending for all.

Once a single state is done, it's done. No Jewish state will be reformed.

The "Zionist" left will not bring it back.

Younger leftists actually secretly support a single state already but they know it's not politically feasible to admit it.

Even the older, more establishment centre-leftists don't really care that much about being "a Jewish State" whatever that means. They mostly support it right now because of force of habit and because they're trying to triangulate and appear more nationalist than the right, who now one staters who it could be argued don't take demographics seriously.

This is not the case -- it is the Zionist left in Israel (Meretz, Avoda, and such) that are the strongest, most forceful backers of the two-state solution. They very much do support a Jewish state, and a more exclusive Jewish state than the Zionist right -- they don't see any role for the poor Palestinians in such a state.

[ag]

Ultimately, I think a one-state solution is the answer; Gaza will be cut loose to be an independent city-state whereas most or all of the West Bank will simply become part of the Israeli state (probably all, since the border with Jordan is actually one of the Jewish areas while the majority-Palestinian ones are all inland), with the Palestinians being at least offered citizenship. Such a state can quite plausibly remain democratic and majority-Jewish (though nowhere near as monolithically as current Israel, of course). Offering a national homeland for both Jews (who would form a majority) and the native peoples of the area would be more consistent in any case with the vision of Ze'ev Jabotinsky.

You realize that such a state would, nearly necessarily, have governing coalitions including "Arab" (non-Zionist) parties. And these parties would, at the very least, demand recognition of their community's equality in the joint state. Also, in such a state non-Haredi Jews will be in minority pretty soon, if not from the beginning. Both absolutely fine by me, of course, but would most Zionist Israelis be equally happy about it?

Doubt it, especially since from a socioeconomic point of view Arabs will probably have significantly worse turnout than Israelis. Most likely, the Israeli left and right will be tied together in a permanent coalition -- perhaps even a single party -- that would hopefully adopt the best characteristics of both. Arabs who join parties within this coalition (the way, historically, up until the 1990s they pretty solidly supported Avoda) would be part of the government, along the lines of whites in the ANC. After a few decades of receiving the benefits from living in a First World state, they will hopefully stop supporting non-Zionist parties (or, more likely, the non-Zionist parties will simply be paying lip service to the idea of being non-Zionist). Happy ending for all.

They would have around 40 seats even on substantially lower turnout and with some Arab vote going to Zionist parties (I did the calculation recently, too lazy to search for it immediately). That leaves 80 seats to the Zionists and the Haredi together. Enough to form a government, but not enough to have alternation ever: you can drop, may be, a Zionist faction or two before it gets unstable. The Shas+UTJ+other Haredi vote will be worth at least 10 seats (remember: this time some of it failed to get in because of the threshold - they will be forced to amalgamate in the larger electorate), and will grow pretty rapidly with time - hard to see them getting under 15 seats before long, possibly more.  So, this pretty much guarantees that every government will have to have the Haredi, possibly all of them together. Of course, that, in turn, would imply that a chunk of the hard-left vote (say, 5 seats) would actually ideologically prefer to ally with the Arabs (among whom the hard-left block would be bigger).

So, unless inviting Arab parties would become acceptable, you would have a permanent, unchangeable pretty much communal government, heavily dependent on bribing the Haredi. This, of course, would imply permanent lack of resources for the Arab sector, which would be viewed as anti-government in any case. Discrimination would only be strengthened. And, of course, the Arabs, on average, would be even poorer and less integrated to begin with than the current Israeli citizens, making them ideal members of the new underclass. The ethnic/religious divide will be reinforced with the class and discrimination divide.  Under your scenario (no Arab parties need to worry about being in the government), communal tensions will be permanently intensified, not weakened. And, of course, the Arabs would get few, if any, advantages of "living in a first world country": but they will have a much clearer view of how those, who enjoy these advantages, live.

[Torie]

Israel + West Bank (but no Gaza) would still be a Jewish majority, I believe.  But that would still probably be untenable.  A "one state solution" would presumably lead to civil war.

Yeah, the Orthodox birth rate and the Arab birth rate would balance each other out, I think. However, the growing dependence on the Orthodox would dramatically change Israel in itself.

is that really the case currently? Doesn't the West Bank have one of the highest fertility rates in the world, with Gaza the highest?

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Israel + West Bank (but no Gaza) would still be a Jewish majority, I believe.  But that would still probably be untenable.  A "one state solution" would presumably lead to civil war.

Yeah, the Orthodox birth rate and the Arab birth rate would balance each other out, I think. However, the growing dependence on the Orthodox would dramatically change Israel in itself.

is that really the case currently? Doesn't the West Bank have one of the highest fertility rates in the world, with Gaza the highest?

Well, Gaza isn't going to be part of the One-State solution, save it being imposed on a defeated Israel after a war. So that's not a factor.

The West Bank has a pretty high birth rate, but the average Ultra-Orthodox family in Israel has at least eight children and they're immigrating to the country in fairly large numbers, so I imagine it'll keep pace.

[MaxQue]

Israel + West Bank (but no Gaza) would still be a Jewish majority, I believe.  But that would still probably be untenable.  A "one state solution" would presumably lead to civil war.

Yeah, the Orthodox birth rate and the Arab birth rate would balance each other out, I think. However, the growing dependence on the Orthodox would dramatically change Israel in itself.

is that really the case currently? Doesn't the West Bank have one of the highest fertility rates in the world, with Gaza the highest?

Well, Gaza isn't going to be part of the One-State solution, save it being imposed on a defeated Israel after a war. So that's not a factor.

The West Bank has a pretty high birth rate, but the average Ultra-Orthodox family in Israel has at least eight children and they're immigrating to the country in fairly large numbers, so I imagine it'll keep pace.

I fear for Israeli women if Muslims and Ultra-Orthodox become a majority.