Republican Super Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET)

[Mr. Morden]

At 5pm, the networks will be given access to the early exit poll numbers.  So some time between about 5:10 and 5:30pm or so, we’ll start getting news reports from them about things like what percentage of the voters are Independents, what the top issues on voters’ minds are, etc.  But they’ll withhold the topline numbers (who is winning the exit poll) until all the polls have closed in a given state.

I don’t know if they’ll be doing an entrance poll for the caucus states.

Overview of all results: http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president

PRIMARIES

Polls close at 7pm ET

Georgia
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ga/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/georgia

Vermont
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/vt/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/vermont

Virginia
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/va/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/virginia

Polls close at 8pm ET

Alabama
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/al/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/alabama

Massachusetts
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ma/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/massachusetts

Oklahoma
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ok/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/oklahoma

Tennessee
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/tn/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/tennessee

Polls close at 8:30pm ET

Arkansas
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ar/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/arkansas

Polls close at 8pm ET for most of the state, but 9pm ET in some of it

Texas
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/tx/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/texas

CAUCUSES

Caucuses begin at 8pm ET

Minnesota
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/mn/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/minnesota

Caucuses run from 7pm to 12am ET

Alaska
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ak/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/alaska

[Mr. Morden]

Here is the current weather map:



Things look good in most of the US, with the exception of the giant yellow dagger stabbing through the heart of Oklahoma.  Maybe that represents Native American ancestors stabbing the modern American government (as expressed via voting on Super Tuesday) across the spacetime continuum?

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like rain is forecast for Tuesday in much of Alabama, Arkansas, and Tennessee:

[Mr. Morden]

Polls are apparently now open in parts of Vermont.  I guess they'll open in the rest of the state at 6am, with polls opening in Virginia at the same time.  Other states will open at 7am or later.

Does anyone have a good overview page, that will show the %ages for all the candidates in all the states voting today at once?  I posted the Politico overview page, but am wondering if there are other options out there.

[Mr. Morden]

Nashville, TN:



Montgomery, AL:



Houston, TX:



Alpharetta, GA:



Can we infer who’s winning based on these pictures? 

[Mr. Morden]

ABC seems to be saying that there won't be entrance polls for the Minnesota and Alaska caucuses on the Republican side:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-super-tuesday-republican-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37309493

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[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

Exit poll info:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-super-tuesday-republican-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37309493

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[Mr. Morden]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-super-tuesday-republican-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37309493

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[Mr. Morden]

More exits:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/01/super-tuesday-gop-results-latest-news.html

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[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/704800536797814784

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[Mr. Morden]

More exits:

[Mr. Morden]

Exit poll topline (if my math is right):

GA:
Trump 40%
Cruz 24%
Rubio 23%

[Mr. Morden]

Exit poll topline (if my math is right):

VT:
Trump 32%
Kasich 31%
Rubio 20.5%

[Mr. Morden]

Here's my math on the topline exit polls for all 5 candidates in all 3 states:

GA:
Trump 40%
Cruz 23.5%
Rubio 22.5%
Carson 7.5%
Kasich 5.5%

VA:
Trump 33.5%
Rubio 31%
Cruz 16%
Kasich 10%
Carson 7.5%

VT:
Trump 32%
Kasich 31%
Rubio 20.5%
Cruz 10.5%
Carson 4.5%

[Mr. Morden]

Real votes have started coming in in both GA and VA.

[Mr. Morden]

More Virginia exits, here’s the Rubio/Trump margin by demo:

men: Trump +10%
women: Rubio +5%
white: Trump +5%
non-white: Rubio +3%
non-college graduate: Trump +19%
college graduate: Rubio +10%
under $100k income: Trump +13%
over $100k income: Rubio +12%
conservative: Trump +7%
moderate: Rubio +13%
Evangelical: Trump +8%
non-Evangelical: Rubio +7%
urban area: Rubio +4%
suburban area: Rubio +3%
rural area: Trump +20%

39% would be dissatisfied if Rubio wins the nomination
53% would be dissatisfied if Trump wins the nomination
56% would be dissatisfied if Cruz wins the nomination

Who ran the most unfair campaign?
Trump 42%
Cruz 35%
Rubio 11%

[Mr. Morden]

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If accurate, then Trump clearly wins

Well, he's obviously going to win if the exit poll is right.  I already posted the topline #s, and they have Trump ahead by 2 or 3 points.

[Mr. Morden]

Like in Virginia, the exit poll of Georgia has Trump doing especially well in rural areas.

Georgia suburbs:
Trump 35%
Rubio 26%
Cruz 23%

Georgia rural areas:
Trump 51%
Cruz 19%
Rubio 16%

[Mr. Morden]

That's odd. Rubio is beating Trump amongst moderates. In most states, Trump has been dominating with moderates. Trump is also beating Rubio with conservatives. Trump typically does worse with conservatives than moderates. I think this because that the moderates in VA are different from the moderates in other states. NoVa moderates hate Trump.

In Georgia, by contrast, Trump still has a bigger gap over Rubio among conservatives than moderates, but a smaller # overall.  That's because of the strength of Cruz:

conservatives:
Trump 39%
Cruz 25%
Rubio 21%

moderates:
Trump 42%
Rubio 27%
Cruz 12%

So I think the pattern is that in states where Cruz does well, Trump's voters are more moderate, because Cruz sucks up many of the conservative voters.  But in states where Cruz does poorly, Trump leans more heavily on conservatives.

[Mr. Morden]

Updated Vermont exit poll:

Kasich 31%
Trump 29.5%

[Mr. Morden]

Exit poll topline (if my math is right):

OK
Cruz 32%
Trump 27%
Rubio 26.5

[Mr. Morden]

Exit poll topline (if my math is right):

OK
Cruz 32%
Trump 27%
Rubio 26.5

TN:
Trump 41%
Cruz 21%
Rubio 20.5%

MA:
Trump 46.5%
Rubio 18%
Kasich 16.5%

AL:
Trump 46%
Rubio 20.5%
Cruz 17%

[Mr. Morden]

No entrance poll released in MN.  I'm guessing no entrance poll in any of the caucus states, which means that it might be a very long night for Alaska.

[Mr. Morden]

If you don't get 20% of the vote you don't win any delegates right? or do you need to win 20% in a congressional district to win a delegate?

so if Rubio doesn't get 20% in texas he gets 0 delegates?

There are both "at-large" delegates and congressional district delegates.  In states like TX, GA, TN, and AL, you need 20% statewide in order to get any at large delegates.  But you can still get some congressional district delegates if you get at least 2nd place in a congressional district.

So if Rubio doesn't get 20% in Texas, he'll be shut out of the at large delegates, but still might be able to get some CD delegates if he's in the top 2 in some of those districts.