By-elections of the 44th Australian Parliament (2013-2016)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well this is just a magical night!

Praise Jebus

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

To repeat from the other thread. Canning Newspoll (yes, electorate poll... So) but headlines are the Libs are up 51-49% (a 10.8% swing) based on 2013 preferences and Abbott is only 4% ahead of Shorten as PPM in  a very conservative seat.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

A Union-commissioned (therefore double caveats) poll of Canning, done by ReachTEL has Labor ahead 50.1-49.9. However, that is respondent-allocated, based on 2013 it would be a 57-43 Lib win. What this poll is telling me that I think the Lib candidate needs to get at least 45% of the primary vote to feel secure, because I don't think the preference flow to the Libs will be very strong at all. I still think we'll see a Lib win of 52-54% - so around an 8-10% swing.   

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Two more polls suggesting a 51-49 Lib win, off a pretty strong flow of preferences to the ALP, I think too strong and they'll ease off once people are in the booth.

I still think the most likely result is a 53-47 win for the Libs.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I dunno what's going on. I was thinking Labor might pinch this earlier on, but the polls have been pretty pessimistic for Labor.

I'll say 51/49 Liberals, I guess.

Even getting this close would be a huge win for Labor, 'pessimistic' is a relative term. We can't be too greedy.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I dunno what's going on. I was thinking Labor might pinch this earlier on, but the polls have been pretty pessimistic for Labor.

I'll say 51/49 Liberals, I guess.

Even getting this close would be a huge win for Labor, 'pessimistic' is a relative term. We can't be too greedy.

My thoughts exactly. We have to remember that numerically a win for the ALP would require a very big swing. Any result that cuts the Liberal margin to 6% or less would be a very solid result.

Keep in mind, that the average swing in the face of a sitting-member's death (over resignation or retirement) is under 3%. So keep that in mind.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

We finally get a poll where the TPP is believable based on the primary.

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http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/09/12/newspoll-51-49-to-liberal-in-canning/

I don't know whether this was based on previous election or respondent allocated for the TPP. But frankly 44% primary is in the danger zone for Hastie, considering the preference flows will likely be terrible for them. But for Abbott to only be 3% ahead of Shorten as PPM in a natural Lib area in a strong Fed Lib state is the other telling factor.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Oh and apparently more polling out tonight.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

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So, considering they're losing 4-5% when polling previous vs respondent-allocated, I would not be happy or comfortable with this if I were the Libs.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Still sitting on about 10%... all-things considered, I'd be surprised if things improve between now and Saturday.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think 55.2-44.8%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

There will obviously be lots of spin on both sides, but I will say that a 7% swing is pretty large regardless of what earlier polls were saying.

Not spinning - but this isn't THAT great of an outcome.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

There will obviously be lots of spin on both sides, but I will say that a 7% swing is pretty large regardless of what earlier polls were saying.

Not spinning - but this isn't THAT great of an outcome.

Sorry, not that great for who? It's definitely a let down from how Labor was polling, but still pretty large change.

Well the last two polls once Turnbull came in had it at 57-43 and the polling before was 52-48... so it seems like Turnbull was only worth 2.5-3% not the 5% or higher than some were expecting - noting that the Labor primary of around 36% is in line with the polls, even before Abbott was binned. So, the Liberals picked up a few points from others and smaller parties, but an almost 10% swing on primaries is a strong result for Labor.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Joe Hockey is set to resign his seat of North Sydney in the near future triggering a by-election in the Liberal stronghold.

If Labor is smart they won't even bother contesting it, seeing if they can get a strong local independent to run.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Canning currently sitting on
55.3-44.7% ugh... nearly got it.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Counting underway in North Sydney... so far, Liberal performance has been a little underwhelming, primary swing away sitting at about 15%.