British Local Elections, May 2024

[DL]

Projected National Vote Shares are Labour 34%, Tories 25%, Lib Dems 17%, Others 24%.

I wish they'd just do away with this bollocks.

Is this just England or do they try to project all of the UK even though no votes are being cast in Wales or Scotland?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

When do the first results from the London mayoral race come in ?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Labour fail to take one of their "easier" PCC gains on paper - Humberside - but then win Norfolk and Northamptonshire. Please make it make sense

Norfolk does seem to be in an unusually strong anti-tory mood at the moment.

As for humberside ... Maybe it's the Lib Dem strength in Hull right now?

[Duke of York]

Labour have held cambridge, even taking a ward despite fears of low emission zones and student gaza issues.

Cannock Chase becomes a Labour majority.

what seat did they gain? BBC is not showing any gains for Labour. Liberal Democrats lost one to Greens.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

When do the first results from the London mayoral race come in ?

Tomorrow, when they start counting.

[Oryxslayer]

Labour have held cambridge, even taking a ward despite fears of low emission zones and student gaza issues.

Cannock Chase becomes a Labour majority.

what seat did they gain? BBC is not showing any gains for Labour. Liberal Democrats gained one.

It's a Green gain first, but also The Labour pickup was not a net gain. BBC only shows the overall, but there are often multiple directions of travel.



Crawley is a landslide, breaking several years of a polarized tug of war.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

When do the first results from the London mayoral race come in ?

Tomorrow, when they start counting.

Wait then why is the rumour mill going on about Sadiq Khan loosing ?

[Torrain]

Ben Bradley lost *his own Mansfield constituency* in the East Midlands mayoral race.

Cautionary tale about double-jobbing, and stating you’d hold onto your Commons seat even if elected mayor? Or natural sign of Tory fortunes in the North coming crashing down to earth?

Either way - hardly a good sign for his chances later in the year…

[Baki]

Projected National Vote Shares are Labour 34%, Tories 25%, Lib Dems 17%, Others 24%.

I wish they'd just do away with this bollocks.

Is this just England or do they try to project all of the UK even though no votes are being cast in Wales or Scotland?

If I heard correctly, Sky said that "the votes for the nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales are assumed unchanged from the 2019 GE."

Which makes no sense, especially in Scotland.

[Blair]

oh ffs every year we have this national vote share rubbish

[Duke of York]

Labour have held cambridge, even taking a ward despite fears of low emission zones and student gaza issues.

Cannock Chase becomes a Labour majority.

what seat did they gain? BBC is not showing any gains for Labour. Liberal Democrats gained one.

It's a Green gain first, but also The Labour pickup was not a net gain. BBC only shows the overall, but there are often multiple directions of travel.



Crawley is a landslide, breaking several years of a polarized tug of war.

what do you mean its not a net gain?

[Torrain]

It’s worse than last year - they’re trying to *project constituencies* from the PNS

I mean, look at this nonsense:

[Flyersfan232]

early election then?

[WD]

If you’re looking at that Blackpool result and think Tories can get 242 seats…LOL

[Oryxslayer]

Labour have held cambridge, even taking a ward despite fears of low emission zones and student gaza issues.

Cannock Chase becomes a Labour majority.

what seat did they gain? BBC is not showing any gains for Labour. Liberal Democrats gained one.

It's a Green gain first, but also The Labour pickup was not a net gain. BBC only shows the overall, but there are often multiple directions of travel.



Crawley is a landslide, breaking several years of a polarized tug of war.

what do you mean its not a net gain?

If you pick up a seat, but also lose a seat, then you are net zero. Thats math.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1786421822902173717
Please… make it stop.

[DL]

Isn't it also true that for demographic reasons the vote share in local elections often underestimates the national swing of Conservative to Labour? The turnout in locals tends to be far, far lower than in national elections and that means that the electorate will skew much older - and as we know just about the only demographic group where the Tories are still competitive are people over 65 (especially men over 75). The overwhelmingly Labour voting people who are under 35 are MUCH less likely to vote in local elections.

[Flyersfan232]

https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1786421822902173717
Please… make it stop.

reform is contesting more seats in the general election

[Flyersfan232]

so what could things look in the future in the red wall when the tories arent as unpopular anymore?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Are the media trying to bait rishi into calling an election with this BS lmao

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

When do the first results from the London mayoral race come in ?

Tomorrow, when they start counting.

Wait then why is the rumour mill going on about Sadiq Khan loosing ?

I imagine its some unofficial attempts to do "exit polling" from party people, but god knows.

[CumbrianLefty]

This time round, there are lots of other elections taking place - often in areas with few or no councils up - but these are not counted at all for the purposes of this PNV.

And they are just applying a UNS on the basis of this figure, as well?

[Bono]

So today I learned that Andy Street is in a relationship with Michael Fabricant, notorious wig wearing MP for Lichfield.

Anyway, even though the tories deserve to lose everything, I voted for Street in spite of that as he's really done a good job. Also, if Labour win by too much they'll rest on their laurels and start cozying to the extreme left again.

Where the fk have you been 😁

I pop back round once in a while when there's a UK election.

[Duke of York]

Labour fails to regain Oxford.

loses five seats. Four to independents and one to Greens., Wonder why this happened in Oxford and not Cambridge.

[MillennialModerate]

If that NEV is anywhere near accurate than the British people deserve to be miserable.

I mean.. they want change but don’t want it from Labour? It’s not rocket science - if you don’t vote Labour you will get the Tories. Plain and simple