Democrats: If you lose Florida and Ohio, do you still feel confident of victory?

[ChrisFromNJ]

I think they could lose Florida and still have a comfortable shot at winning, as long as they don't lose PA.  However, if they've lost Ohio, then they've already lost FL and PA, and the game will be pretty much over.

I just can't see them losing such huge states that are usually good indicators of a 50/50 country (IE: Florida, Ohio) and then have western states that went for George Bush NOT go for John McCain.

That's why I think they can lose Florida but still carry PA and OH.  They are all close to the center as far as voter turnout.  I think in this current match-up, Ohio is leaning more Dem, PA is on the balance, and Florida is leaning Rep.  So as long as the Dems carry OH and PA, they can afford to lose FL if they pick up something in the Great Lakes or midwest areas.  However, they can carry OH and still lose the election if the Reps can claim PA.  And of course, if the Reps get OH, it's all over.

That's just my theory as of late. If George Bush can win those states...why can't John McCain win AND THEN SOME?

Because you can't take all of the good that George W Bush provided electorally and then automatically project that onto McCain. Bush appealed to some demographics that McCain won't. And vice versa. For example, McCain will have a bigger problem courting evangelicals than Bush did. He'll have a harder time courting the hardcore conservative vote.

[ChrisFromNJ]

I see where you're going but West Virginia, Missouri, Florida?

Those are not doable - not for Obama.

Good grief, that is absurd.

Florida and Missouri are entirely doable for Obama. Will he have a tough time winning both of those states? Sure. Will those states lean towards McCain? Sure. But to say that Obama has absolutely no chance to win Missouri and Florida is absurd when within the last few weeks polling has shown that the race is pretty close.

I know what you are going to say: you are going to show me the latest Rasmussen Missouri poll where McCain leads Obama by 15.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/missouri/election_2008_missouri_presidential_election

Two problems:
1) This poll was taken right in the middle of the Reverend Wright "scandal", when Obama was getting bad press from all angles.
2) This poll only has Obama getting 67% of Democratic support. Kerry got 89%. Gore got around the same. I expect Obama to be around the same in 2008. It's pretty clear that the in-fighting between the two Democratic candidates is not doing them any favors in the polling. When the Democrats have a nominee, the polling of this state will be more valid. Obama isn't winning only 67% of the Democrat vote.

To say that Missouri is out of play for Obama right at the start is absurd. Ditto for Florida.