British Columbia provincial election 2013

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Liberals trailing in all regions is surprising. No areas of real strength.

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2009 BC Election Results



Updated to use Earl's Colour Scheme. There are blank maps in the Gallery - two editions, the one I've used here, and one which has all of Greater Vancouver's ridings on the main map (in low detail). Someone uploaded the HST Referendum map, which could probably be useful for discussion in this thread, but I can't remember who - it might have been Teddy or Earl?

Edit: I should note, completed in haste. Errors will be gratefully corrected.

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Very close three-way in Saanich North.

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Methinks the Liberals will become utter, utter douchebags in their fourth term. They think they're literally invincible given everything they've been through.

How much is potentially people worried the NDP was going to have an overwhelming majority, and voted for the Liberals, assuming they were voting for a strong opposition? Much like the 2007 NSW election here.

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Here is a novel idea.  If will actually improve the image of the NDP if someone from NDP stepped aside and with NDP support Clark for MLA.  This way NDP can show that they are a constructive opposition and Clark will have to represent a population of more or less pro-NDP views.  Other than tjhe salary there is less of a point of being a MLA in opposition than in the majority. 

Like Vancouver - Point Grey?

I've read only one or two comparisons in the papers to Harry Truman's upset but it is an apt one - not just the polls being wrong, but an aggressive, balls-out campaign beating a timid one.
Both cases saw the frontrunners so concerned about saying something that would alienate swing voters that they bored everyone silly and gave their supporters no reason to come out for them. "We'll be different . . . kind of . . . sort of . . . maybe . . " doesn't get you very far.
The Keating campaign, which also saw him not only win but increase his majority in spite of bad polls, makes a good comparison too, as does John Major's upset a year earlier. Something the NDP can take heart in - from all three cases - is what happened next time: voters had been ready for a change but went back to the incumbents at the last minute - however, the demand for something different became so strong that the opposition won smashing victories all three times (and stayed in power for quite a while afterwards). The Liberals got themselves an extra term, but I have a sneaking suspicion that in four years they're going to be a very small opposition for a very long time.

It is definitely possible to win one time too many... Compare also NSW in 2007, Queensland in 2009, it's possible the last SA election will fall into the same category (having lost the popular vote, but retained government), but obviously that depends on the results of the next election.

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Different dynamic in Australia (voting on a Saturday, compulsory voting, etc) but absentee ballots tend to favour Labor and the Greens here, too. Postal ballots tend to favour the Liberals, though. I've pondered in the past about absentee votes. Here I put it down to people working on polling day casting a fair proportion of them, as you noted. Being a Saturday when we vote, they are probably more likely to be employed in retail or fast food, so more likely to be younger than the average voter, which may explain it. Not sure about the reason in Canada, but perhaps something similar?