Because the Dems don't have enough opportunities in 2008...

[Sam Spade]

While Senator Warner is unlikely to run again, so to is former Governor Warner unlikely to seek the U.S. Senate.  Most indications seem to be that he'll seek the Governorship again in 2009, which is a better fit for him anyway.

In that case, it's Tom Davis on the GOP side versus...who on the Dem side?

Tim Kaine. I've been saying that for a while. Kaine wants to be in the Senate (or, at least, have a more permanent job than governor).

Kaine's approval rating is second only to Palin's, so he'd be as much of a shoo-in as Warner.

I didn't know 58% was the second-highest approval rating in the nation.

[Sam Spade]

If anyone's got any sense, Smash's comment should be saved for posterity.

[Sam Spade]

Oh. I see. You mean like

Davis is a moderate Congressman from NOVA.  No one would be able to challenge Mark Warner.  He left office with approvals in the 70's.  Davis would probably be the toughest challenge, but we are basically taking about the difference of Mark Warner winning by 20 or 30.  tom Davis also comes from a house district which is trending strongly Democratic and if he ran the house seat is likely gone for the GOP.

this?

Yep, that sounds about right.

[Sam Spade]

The sincere problem with a lot of this speculation continues to be the assumption that 2008 will be a lot like 2006, an assumption just as problematic as the assumption in June 2005 that 2006 would be a lot like 2004.

Since I've been cleaning up the forum of late and reading through threads from this era, the comparison is highly enlightening.

[Sam Spade]

While Senator Warner is unlikely to run again, so to is former Governor Warner unlikely to seek the U.S. Senate.  Most indications seem to be that he'll seek the Governorship again in 2009, which is a better fit for him anyway.

In that case, it's Tom Davis on the GOP side versus...who on the Dem side?

Tim Kaine. I've been saying that for a while. Kaine wants to be in the Senate (or, at least, have a more permanent job than governor).

Kaine's approval rating is second only to Palin's, so he'd be as much of a shoo-in as Warner.

I didn't know 58% was the second-highest approval rating in the nation.

Well, he was last I saw it, at 77%. Now that I think about it, that was right about the VT shootings, which might explain it.

Well, regardless of whether it's b/c of that or not, the number appears to likely be an outlier in the scheme of things.  His approval number chart from SUSA is as follows:

June 58-32
May 67-26
April 51-36
March 55-34
February 53-38
January 56-35