No. I think Trump is prime to underperform tonight, and I suspect it'll be a single digit race.
The last few contests have been favorable to Trump since the beginning and demographics are one of the best determiners of how undecideds will break. The demographics of the Northeast are favorable to Trump, here they are not. Indiana is a fundamentally Cruz-type-candidate-friendly state, and Trump has underperformed states with similar profiles (see Iowa and Kentucky, Illinois was pretty much on the money). That tells me Trump has a ceiling here of around 45%. It's a tall order to beat someone with those numbers, but strategic voters leaving Kasich might bring Cruz reasonably close.
