Canadian federal election - 2015

[DC Al Fine]

There has been some talk of moving towards an Australian-style preferential voting system in Canada as well - the Liberals favour it and the NDP would likely regard it as better than the status quo...if that was brought in by an NDP/Liberal coalition government, it could lock the Tories out of power for the next century!

Political alignments don't exist in a vacumn. The right would (eventually) shift enough to the left to bring things back to 50/50.

If the NDP is going to force political reform, can they at least choose a good one like MMP?

[DC Al Fine]

I feel like the NDP would be fairly opposed to Alternative Vote. It is after all not proportional in any way, although the results would be closer to proportionality as it would force the Tories out of power. But at the same time, it would prevent the NDP from ever winning as well. Get used to Liberal power for a long time, or at least some sort of barely right of centre conservative party. (might cause the creation of a new reform party!)

Indeed. It'd be interesting what parties would show up. The Tories would break up almost immediately... and I imagine there would be some hard left split from the NDP eventually.

[DC Al Fine]

Guess who (might be) back

Will he win the nomination.

[DC Al Fine]

I know that hard core conservative supporters think "coalition" is a dirty word, I see no evidence that today in 2014/15 the rest of the population has a problem with parties forming a coalition. In fact I think they rather like the idea of parties working together

Look over to here in the UK to see why Coalition's terrible for trust in politics.

Then again in Australia anytime the "right" forms government it is inevitably "the Coalition" meaning the Liberal and National parties - and no one in Australia seems at all troubled by that.

Of course, the Coalition has effectively been one party for quite some time now. Not like the Liberals and NDP who've spent 100 years campaigning against each other and have a bunch of marginal seats that they could lose to the other partner.

[DC Al Fine]

That's what we need, not one, but two Quebec-only leaders clogging up the English debate.

[DC Al Fine]

Quebec is going to be quite difficult to project. I was playing around with my proportional swing model. Based off the most recent polls, 25-30 seats will have winners with < 35% of the vote.

[DC Al Fine]

Wow I didn't know the Greens had had such a strong showing in Yukon ! Yet they seem to be nearly absent from territorial politics. How did they manage that ?

Territorial politics are extremely candidate based.

[DC Al Fine]

did nobody tell Northeastern Alberta the election was on today?

My brother in law lives in that riding. It's mostly a boom town full of young single guys working in the oil sands, with a smattering of Aboriginals mixed in. Not exactly high turnout groups.

[DC Al Fine]

Hatman, what on Earth is your friend Teddy smoking?





8 seats for F&D... 8!!!

[DC Al Fine]

Teddy is obviously on some sort of drug. Our polling doesn't show "Others" at a statistically significant percentage anywhere in Quebec, though we have yet to probe F+D by name.

Indeed. Best case scenario for F et D is winning Fortin's seat off his personal vote.

[DC Al Fine]

CRA, Atlantic-wide: 55/26/16.

Watch out Megan Leslie. She'd lose by a hefty margin based on those numbers.

[DC Al Fine]

Yeah Joy Smith was a real prude - she had a weird obsession with sex - the only time she ever spoke out it was about prostitution, pornography or the age of consent - if there was no sexual angle she had no interest. Usually people who are that uptight and obsessed with sex are secretly into some very weird stuff sexually themselves

[DC Al Fine]

Gordo? Would be an interesting pick, but I've heard that his expense accounts at the London High Commission were a little large for him to be so quickly welcomed.  He would make a good Tory Candidate among the more affluent voters of the riding, though it is important to note that while the Shaunessey voters take up a lot of space, the vast majority of voters in the riding are in apartments and multi-unit dwellings, and are much less amenable to the Tories then they were to the BC Liberals

That being said, Campbell is of amorphous politics federally.  Whether he voted for Joyce Murray or Deborah Meredith is purposely unknown. He's a technocrat above all things. Among his acts as premier was to more-or-less prohibit federal political activity among BC Liberal MLAs, staff, and officials after some of the Martinites working for the government got out of hand.

Could he end off pulling a reverse "David Emerson"?

Why would he bother running for the Tories in that case? The Tories only won Granville 35-30 in 2011 and the Liberals have had a pretty impressive improvement in BC.

[DC Al Fine]

Tories at 35% nationally, Bloc in the mid 20's in Quebec. Oh my!

[DC Al Fine]

Can we realistically believe the Bloc to end second in Quebec at 25% nowadays ? How is its splinter doing ? Forces et démocratie, is that it ? I'd seen a map with them winning a couple ridings, was it realistic ?

No probably not. Forces et democratie is a non-entity. That map you saw was questionable to say the least. They have an outside chance at winning their leader's seat and that's it.

[DC Al Fine]

BQ leader Mario Beaulieu will be running in La Pointe-de-l'Ile, an NDP held riding in working class/nationalist stronghold in the east end of Montreal.

Seems reasonable.

If I had to pick an ideal non-Bloc held riding, I'd probably pick Manicougan, but Beaulieu is from Montreal, so a working class seat there is a good idea.

[DC Al Fine]

BQ leader Mario Beaulieu will be running in La Pointe-de-l'Ile, an NDP held riding in working class/nationalist stronghold in the east end of Montreal.

Seems reasonable.

If I had to pick an ideal non-Bloc held riding, I'd probably pick Manicougan, but Beaulieu is from Montreal, so a working class seat there is a good idea.

No. Manicouagan wouldn't vote for someone which is not from Côte-Nord region or has no link with the area.

I meant hypothetically. Obviously the leader being from Montreal changes the decision.

You'd think that, but there is still a correlation between NDP areas and BQ areas in Quebec. I'm not sure which ridings would most likely attract the kinds of people you describe. Perhaps more rural areas?

It's not a perfect fit, but I'd guess anywhere the PQ did well that Quebec Solidaire did poorly. So yeah, mostly rural areas, but where Beaulieu's riding is probably a good fit too. He might be pursuing "right wing nationalism" but I don't think he has the economic liberalism monkey on his back like PKP would.

[DC Al Fine]

You'd think that, but there is still a correlation between NDP areas and BQ areas in Quebec. I'm not sure which ridings would most likely attract the kinds of people you describe. Perhaps more rural areas?

It's not a perfect fit, but I'd guess anywhere the PQ did well that Quebec Solidaire did poorly. So yeah, mostly rural areas, but where Beaulieu's riding is probably a good fit too. He might be pursuing "right wing nationalism" but I don't think he has the economic liberalism monkey on his back like PKP would.

I did a quick test from my projection model. Hypothetically, the best places for a Bloc leader to run (incumbency notwithstanding), is somewhere with lots of nationalists but few of the lefty types that vote Quebec Solidaire.

I ranked provincial ridings according to the following formula:
(PQ local %/PQ provincial %)(QS local %/QS provincial %)

By this measure, the best places for Beaulieu are mostly in the Gaspe.

[DC Al Fine]

Van East will stay NDP unless we see a 1993 style wave election.

1993 is a great example of how voters can drift; a majority of the NDP caucus was from a province where they are currently shut out!

[DC Al Fine]

Does anyone know if Louis Plamondon is running again?

[DC Al Fine]

1993 is a great example of how voters can drift; a majority of the NDP caucus was from a province where they are currently shut out!

The entire NDP caucus was from Western Canada, no less.

And the only place in *Canada* which has seen continual NDP representation since 1993 is whatever inherited portion of Svend Robinson's 1993 constituency remains.  (And if any of it was inherited by Libby Davies in '97 or Peter Julian in '04--I'm not sure what the geographic configurations are.)

The entire Burnaby portion of the 1993 Burnaby-Kingsway riding has remained NDP since then. Fitting that the riding is now named for Tommy Douglas. If the NDP loses the new riding of Burnaby North-Seymour but keeps Burnaby South, then it the NDP continuous area will be reduced to a narrow strip.

Northeastern Burnaby (east of Spelling Ave) has gone NDP continuously since 1972, probably the part of the country that has had an NDP MP the longest. What's really amazing is this area may not have even voted NDP on its own in 2011.

Much different for the Liberals who have had parts of Mount Royal since the 20's.

[DC Al Fine]

1993 is a great example of how voters can drift; a majority of the NDP caucus was from a province where they are currently shut out!

The entire NDP caucus was from Western Canada, no less.

And the only place in *Canada* which has seen continual NDP representation since 1993 is whatever inherited portion of Svend Robinson's 1993 constituency remains.  (And if any of it was inherited by Libby Davies in '97 or Peter Julian in '04--I'm not sure what the geographic configurations are.)

The entire Burnaby portion of the 1993 Burnaby-Kingsway riding has remained NDP since then. Fitting that the riding is now named for Tommy Douglas. If the NDP loses the new riding of Burnaby North-Seymour but keeps Burnaby South, then it the NDP continuous area will be reduced to a narrow strip.

Northeastern Burnaby (east of Spelling Ave) has gone NDP continuously since 1972, probably the part of the country that has had an NDP MP the longest. What's really amazing is this area may not have even voted NDP on its own in 2011.

Much different for the Liberals who have had parts of Mount Royal since the 20's.

#naturalgoverningparty

I tried it for the Tories.

Only counting PC's/Modern Tories: Parts of the Maritimes + Brandon-Souris (1997)
Counting Reform: Calgary East/Calgary West (1945)
Counting Social Credit: Lethbridge (1930)

[DC Al Fine]

Sana Hassania (Verchères-les-Patriotes), former NDP MP (she left over Gaza) and less present MP in the House wants to run as Liberal or Forces et Démocratie at the next election.

She left over gaza and would join the Liberals? odd, their stance is more pro-israel then the NDPs no?

That does seem odd. I think she should run for F & D, because I like random fringe parties making a mess of things

[DC Al Fine]

I'm not sure that Francine Raynault or Marc-Andre Morin have such "long histories" of working within the NDP. They are both quite old - but as far as i know they were both last minute place holder names on the ballot for the NDP in 2011 who got swept in with the orange crush - i could be wrong but I was under the impression that they were people who had never been all that active (if at all) in the party prior to running.

Funke writes "...long-time NDP activist Francine Raynault, who finally ran in 2011, taking her turn after supporting earlier runs by her husband in the same seat. "
not sure about Marc-Andre Morin, but I've assumed a similar "long time activist" he was an environmental one, since at the start of the 2011 the NDP were still not seen as a huge threat in Quebec from what I remember outside of a handful of targeted seats

What were the NDP targets in Quebec before the Orange Wave? Gatineau was their only close 2nd. Maybe a couple Montreal seats?

[DC Al Fine]

I'm not sure that Francine Raynault or Marc-Andre Morin have such "long histories" of working within the NDP. They are both quite old - but as far as i know they were both last minute place holder names on the ballot for the NDP in 2011 who got swept in with the orange crush - i could be wrong but I was under the impression that they were people who had never been all that active (if at all) in the party prior to running.

Funke writes "...long-time NDP activist Francine Raynault, who finally ran in 2011, taking her turn after supporting earlier runs by her husband in the same seat. "
not sure about Marc-Andre Morin, but I've assumed a similar "long time activist" he was an environmental one, since at the start of the 2011 the NDP were still not seen as a huge threat in Quebec from what I remember outside of a handful of targeted seats

What were the NDP targets in Quebec before the Orange Wave? Gatineau was their only close 2nd. Maybe a couple Montreal seats?

The only New Democrats in Quebec that I'm aware of that did well, outside of the 1988 and the 2011 elections were famous lawyer Robert Cliche in 1968 (the Liberals were so scared of him they recruited famous economist Eric Kierans to run against him),

I just looked him up. He came close in Laval in '68, but what's more impressive is that he got about 30% for the NDP in Beauce in 1965.