Despite Running 100% Negative ads, McCain plans to take kiddie gloves off

[Lunar]

Liz Sidoti, AP:

WASHINGTON -- One month before Election Day, Barack Obama sits atop battleground polls in a shrinking playing field, the economic crisis is breaking his way and the Democrat has made progress toward winning the White House.

The onus is on Republican John McCain to turn the race around under exceptionally challenging circumstances _ and his options are limited.

McCain's advisers say the Arizona senator will ramp up his attacks in the coming days with a tougher, more focused message describing "who Obama is," including questioning his character, "liberal" record and "too risky" proposals in advertising and appearances.

Obama's advisers, in turn, say he will argue that McCain is unable to articulate an economic vision that's different from President Bush's. In a new push, the Illinois senator is calling McCain's health care plan "radical."

Now that the vice presidential debate between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin is over, the contest returns to being entirely about Obama and McCain and likely will stay that way until Nov. 4. The rivals meet Tuesday in their second of three debates as the campaign enters its next unpredictable chapter.

Interviews with party insiders across the country Friday showed this: Democrats are optimistic of victory if nervous over whether Obama can hold his advantage while Republicans are worried that the race may be moving out of reach though hopeful that McCain will beat the odds as he did in the GOP primary.

Both sides note that plenty can change in one month _ and they're right.

"Very confident, yet not overly so," said Ohio Democratic Party chief Chris Redfern, who said the financial turmoil is dreadful for the country but "politically it's advantageous" for Obama.

South Carolina GOP Chairman Katon Dawson said that given McCain's standing, "I'd be concerned at this time, but I would never count this guy out. He's got the political hide of an alligator."

The Electoral College battle playing out over roughly a dozen states puts McCain's challenge to reach the necessary 270 votes in stark terms.

McCain can't prevail without holding onto most of the states that Bush won, and he's now virtually tied or trailing in public polls in at least 10 of them _ Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia _ as he tries to fend off Obama's well-funded advertising onslaught and grass-roots efforts.

The GOP nominee also is only playing in five states that Democrat John Kerry won in 2004 _ Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and, now, Maine _ and he's running behind. McCain abandoned efforts Thursday in one other, costly 17-vote Michigan, as Obama approaches a double-digit lead in the high-unemployment state and it became clear McCain couldn't shake Bush's drag.

Some Republicans close to McCain's campaign fret in private that Obama may be pulling away for good; others aren't so pessimistic. But there's unanimity in this; McCain has dwindling chances to regain momentum in the face of stiff headwinds, and the upcoming debates are critical.

"He needs to be able to speak to his strengths and remind people of why they like him," said Tom Rath, a New Hampshire delegate to the Republican National Convention. Florida GOP Chairman Jim Greer said McCain must clearly "distinguish between the two approaches to governing." And Ted Welch, a veteran Republican fundraiser in Tennessee, said: "He has to give voters enough reasons to vote for him. He hasn't yet."

That doesn't appear to be the campaign's priority in the final weeks. GOP operatives say the goal is to undercut Obama, likely by raising questions about his associations with convict Antoin "Tony" Rezko, a former Obama top fundraiser, and Bill Ayers, a founder of a 1960s radical group.

"We're looking at a very aggressive last 30 days of turning the page on this financial crisis and getting back to discussing Mr. Obama's aggressively liberal record and how he will be too risky for Americans," senior adviser Greg Strimple told reporters Thursday.

McCain himself suggested a strategy shift during a Colorado event that day when a voter asked, "When are you going to take the gloves off?" He answered, "How about Tuesday night?"

The campaign's latest advertisement asks, "Who is Barack Obama?" and asserts, "He's not truthful on taxes."

Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton counters that McCain will try to distract voters from the economic crisis by launching character attacks.

Clearly, McCain's campaign believes that focusing on McCain's biography and record isn't enough and making Obama supremely unacceptable in voters' eyes may be the Republican's best _ if not only _ shot at winning the presidency.

The risk: Voters could be turned off if McCain goes too far.

From his national headquarters to his campaign plane, McCain's staff has been discouraged by the difficult environment over the past two weeks in which the race dynamics were largely out of their control _ discouraged but no less determined to win.

Advisers contend that McCain is rebounding following Palin's strong debate performance Thursday that quieted GOP critics who questioned her qualifications after several TV interview missteps. Independent analysts say she improved her image and staunched the ticket's bleeding.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I don't remember negative ads being a big deal when Obama was running 90% negative back when McCain was ahead.

[Lunar]

 
Congress approved the bailout plan one day later, and advisers hope the issue now will fade; McCain had struggled to strike the right chord amid the crisis. But there was no indication that other campaign topics would overtake the issue and more economic woes are possible; the nation lost 159,000 jobs in September and Americans will soon open their third-quarter 401(k) statements.

Some Republicans close to McCain's campaign fret in private that Obama may be pulling away for good; others aren't so pessimistic. But there's unanimity in this; McCain has dwindling chances to regain momentum in the face of stiff headwinds, and the upcoming debates are critical.

"He needs to be able to speak to his strengths and remind people of why they like him," said Tom Rath, a New Hampshire delegate to the Republican National Convention. Florida GOP Chairman Jim Greer said McCain must clearly "distinguish between the two approaches to governing." And Ted Welch, a veteran Republican fundraiser in Tennessee, said: "He has to give voters enough reasons to vote for him. He hasn't yet."

That doesn't appear to be the campaign's priority in the final weeks. GOP operatives say the goal is to undercut Obama, likely by raising questions about his associations with convict Antoin "Tony" Rezko, a former Obama top fundraiser, and Bill Ayers, a founder of a 1960s radical group.

"We're looking at a very aggressive last 30 days of turning the page on this financial crisis and getting back to discussing Mr. Obama's aggressively liberal record and how he will be too risky for Americans," senior adviser Greg Strimple told reporters Thursday.

McCain himself suggested a strategy shift during a Colorado event that day when a voter asked, "When are you going to take the gloves off?" He answered, "How about Tuesday night?"

The campaign's latest advertisement asks, "Who is Barack Obama?" and asserts, "He's not truthful on taxes."

Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton counters that McCain will try to distract voters from the economic crisis by launching character attacks.

Clearly, McCain's campaign believes that focusing on McCain's biography and record isn't enough and making Obama supremely unacceptable in voters' eyes may be the Republican's best _ if not only _ shot at winning the presidency.

The risk: Voters could be turned off if McCain goes too far.

From his national headquarters to his campaign plane, McCain's staff has been discouraged by the difficult environment over the past two weeks in which the race dynamics were largely out of their control _ discouraged but no less determined to win.

Advisers contend that McCain is rebounding following Palin's strong debate performance Thursday that quieted GOP critics who questioned her qualifications after several TV interview missteps. Independent analysts say she improved her image and staunched the ticket's bleeding.

Congress approved the bailout plan one day later, and advisers hope the issue now will fade; McCain had struggled to strike the right chord amid the crisis. But there was no indication that other campaign topics would overtake the issue and more economic woes are possible; the nation lost 159,000 jobs in September and Americans will soon open their third-quarter 401(k) statements.

One bright spot: the Republican National Committee pulled in a hefty $66 million last month to help supplement McCain's advertising. Unlike Obama, he can spend only $84 million in taxpayer money. Obama, meanwhile, was lifted in polls by voters who think he's better able to handle the economy and better suited to lead the nation through the financial crisis. Surveys also showed that skeptical voters having trouble envisioning him as president started to come around. He's a 47-year-old freshman senator from Chicago who would be the country's first black president.

The Democrat has been using his financial heft and freedom from fundraising limits to swamp McCain in TV advertising, spending roughly $13 million to $11 million for McCain and the RNC combined last week.

Obama, to be sure, still has work to do to lock down his lead. His advantage easily could disappear if he stumbles _ or if an adverse outside event, a so-called "October surprise," occurs.

"He needs to give a little bit more of a window into Barack Obama as a human being ... reveal himself in a way that people who like Barack Obama say, 'I really want to embrace this guy,'" said Steve Grossman, a Massachusetts Democrat and former national party chairman.

Said Joe Erwin, the former Democratic Party chief in South Carolina: "We've just got to swim our own race at this point, and not react to what the Republicans do because we know that we're doing is working."

[Lunar]

Michael Shear, WaPo:

Sen. John McCain and his Republican allies are readying a newly aggressive assault on Sen. Barack Obama's character, believing that to win in November they must shift the conversation back to questions about the Democrat's judgment, honesty and personal associations, several top Republicans said.

With just a month to go until Election Day, McCain's team has decided that its emphasis on the senator's biography as a war hero, experienced lawmaker and straight-talking maverick is insufficient to close a growing gap with Obama. The Arizonan's campaign is also eager to move the conversation away from the economy, an issue that strongly favors Obama and has helped him to a lead in many recent polls.

"We're going to get a little tougher," a senior Republican operative said, indicating that a fresh batch of television ads is coming. "We've got to question this guy's associations. Very soon. There's no question that we have to change the subject here," said the operative, who was not authorized to discuss strategy and spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Being so aggressive has risks for McCain if it angers swing voters, who often say they are looking for candidates who offer a positive message about what they will do. That could be especially true this year, when frustration with Washington politics is acute and a desire for specifics on how to fix the economy and fight the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan is strong.

Robert Gibbs, a top Obama adviser, dismissed the new McCain strategy. "This isn't 1988," he said. "I don't think the country is going to be distracted by the trivial." He added that Obama will continue to focus on the economy, saying that Americans will remain concerned about the country's economic troubles even as the Wall Street crisis eases somewhat.
 
Moments after the House of Representatives approved a bailout package for Wall Street on Friday afternoon, the McCain campaign released a television ad that challenges Obama's honesty and asks, "Who is Barack Obama?" The ad alleges that "Senator Obama voted 94 times for higher taxes. Ninety-four times. He's not truthful on taxes." The charge that Obama voted 94 times for higher taxes has been called misleading by independent fact-checkers, who have noted that the majority of those votes were on nonbinding budget resolutions.

A senior campaign official called the ad "just the beginning" of commercials that will "strike the new tone" in the campaign's final days. The official said the "aggressive tone" will center on the question of "whether this guy is ready to be president."

McCain's only positive commercial, called "Original Mavericks," has largely been taken off the air, according to Evan Tracey of the Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks political ads.

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's performance at Thursday night's debate embodied the new approach, as she used every opportunity to question Obama's honesty and fitness to serve as president. At one point she said, "Barack Obama voted against funding troops [in Iraq] after promising that he would not do so."

Palin kept up the attack yesterday, saying in an interview on Fox News that Obama is "reckless" and that some of what he has said, "in my world, disqualifies someone from consideration as the next commander in chief."

McCain hinted Thursday that a change is imminent, perhaps as soon as next week's debate. Asked at a Colorado town hall, "When are you going to take the gloves off?" the candidate grinned and replied, "How about Tuesday night?"

Yesterday in Pueblo, Colo., McCain made clear that he intends to press Obama on a variety of familiar GOP themes during the debate, as he accused the Democrat once again of getting ready to raise taxes and increase government spending.

"I guarantee you, you're going to learn a lot about who's the liberal and who's the conservative and who wants to raise your taxes and who wants to lower them," McCain said.

A senior aide said the campaign will wait until after Tuesday's debate to decide how and when to release new commercials, adding that McCain and his surrogates will continue to cast Obama as a big spender, a high taxer and someone who talks about working across the aisle but doesn't deliver.

Two other top Republicans said the new ads are likely to hammer the senator from Illinois on his connections to convicted Chicago developer Antoin "Tony" Rezko and former radical William Ayres, whom the McCain campaign regularly calls a domestic terrorist because of his acts of violence against the U.S. government in the 1960s.

The Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. appears to be off limits after McCain condemned the North Carolina Republican Party in April for an ad that linked Obama to his former pastor, saying, "Unfortunately, all I can do is, in as visible a way as possible, disassociate myself from that kind of campaigning."

McCain advisers said the new approach is in part a reaction to Obama, whose rhetoric on the stump and in commercials has also become far harsher and more aggressive.

[Lunar]

They noted that Obama has run television commercials for months linking McCain to lobbyists and hinting at a lack of personal ethics -- an allegation that particularly rankles McCain, aides said.

Campaigning in Abington, Pa., yesterday, Obama continued to focus on the economy, even as he lashed out at McCain.

"He's now going around saying, 'I'm going to crack down on Wall Street' . . . but the truth is he's been saying 'I'm all for deregulation' for 26 years," Obama said. "He hasn't been getting tough on CEOs. He hasn't been getting tough on Wall Street. . . . Suddenly a crisis comes and the polls change, and suddenly he's out there talking like Jesse Jackson."

Obama highlighted a new report showing a reduction of more than 159,000 jobs last month, and he linked the bad economic news to McCain and Palin.

"Governor Palin said to Joe Biden that our plan to get our economy out of the ditch was somehow a job-killing plan; that's what she said," Obama told a crowd of thousands. "I wonder if she turned on the news this morning. . . . When Senator McCain and his running mate talk about job killing, that's something they know a thing or two about, because the policies they've supported and are supporting are killing jobs in America every single day."

McCain issued a statement yesterday saying the bailout bill "is not perfect, and it is an outrage that it's even necessary. But we must stop the damage to our economy done by corrupt and incompetent practices on Wall Street and in Washington."

Speaking in Pueblo just as the House was finishing deliberations on the package, McCain blamed fellow lawmakers for the failure to adequately regulate the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

"It was the Democrats and some Republicans in the Congress who pushed back and did not allow those reforms to take place, and that's a major reason we are in the trouble we are in today," he said. "Those members of Congress ought to be held accountable on November 4th as well."

Before the bailout crisis, aides said, McCain was succeeding in focusing attention on Obama's record and character. Now, they say, he must return to those subjects.

"We are looking for a very aggressive last 30 days," said Greg Strimple, one of McCain's top advisers. "We are looking forward to turning a page on this financial crisis and getting back to discussing Mr. Obama's aggressively liberal record and how he will be too risky for Americans."

[Torie]

Advertising of any form isn't going to help McCain. He needs to demonstrate that he can manage competently a difficult economy. I don't expect that to happen.  That is why I am so pessimistic. I think he's about done.

[Lunar]

I don't remember negative ads being a big deal when Obama was running 90% negative back when McCain was ahead.

Advertising of any form isn't going to help McCain. He needs to demonstrate that he can manage competently a difficult economy. I don't expect that to happen.  That is why I am so pessimistic. I think he's about done.

Two people that haven't had enough time to read the articles.

[Torie]

I read the article, Lunar. Attacking Obama in ads or on the stump isn't going to work at this point. I explained why. That won't relieve the angst.

[Lunar]

I read the article, Lunar. Attacking Obama in ads or on the stump isn't going to work at this point. I explained why. That won't relieve the angst.

Ah, I was making fun of you for posting 40 seconds after I just posted a 4-page article  

Anyway, basic political strategy says go negative, hard if you're down 5 points and the election is a month away.  It's interesting that he'll bring up Ayers and Rezko but not Wright, fearing backlash on the latter.

[Torie]

I read the article, Lunar. Attacking Obama in ads or on the stump isn't going to work at this point. I explained why. That won't relieve the angst.

Ah, I was making fun of you for posting 40 seconds after I just posted a 4-page article  

Anyway, basic political strategy says go negative, hard if you're down 5 points and the election is a month away.  It's interesting that he'll bring up Ayers and Rezko but not Wright, fearing backlash on the latter.

I read very fast - honest!

[JSojourner]

I have no problem with negative ads.  Presuming those ads focus on the opposing candidate's voting record, policy positions, professional ethics or business associations.

The ads may still be outright lies, half truths or just unsubstantiated.  Or, they might be completely based in fact. 

What I cannot abide are the kind of smears that were leveled against Max Cleland in 2002 or John Kerry in 2004.  Or the horrendous "beating the dead horse" where a 20 year old DUI is concerned. 

I am still pretty sure neither McCain, nor Obama, will go terribly dirty.  They will BOTH be negative.  There has never been a political campain that wasn't.  As to surrogates and 527's I am still expecting a slew of smears.

[humder]

 The problem for McCain is that Obama has far more money. So if McCain releases five negative ads, then Obama releases ten. But if I were to advise McCain, I would still encourage this strategy.

[ChrisFromNJ]

It's hard to say if these character ads will have any effect. Ideally they should have aired in August when McCain was even in the polls and there were still 3 months until the election. The ads would have gotten plenty of free air time and Obama's image would have morphed into someone who was risky, or unacceptable to the general public.

But we are now in October, the press is already aware of Ayers and Wright and it is no surprise, and the voter's opinions of Obama are beginning to harden.

It really boggles my mind why these ads, if they eventually come, weren't aired early in the campaign.

McCain has the very real possibility of looking desperate here if he airs these ads. It could have a negative effect in the polls among independents.

[King]

Wait, McCain plans to attack Obama even more?  What is he going to do?

The only way this is possible is if he literally attacks Obama.  Pulls a gun out at the next debate, blows his brains out, and says "there, he's dead.  You can't elect him over me anymore."

[JSojourner]

Wait, McCain plans to attack Obama even more?  What is he going to do?

"Hey Barack...call me!"

[Lunar]

RNC put out a "What We Learned" memo: "The New York Times Sheds Additional Light On The Relationship Between Obama And Terrorist Bill Ayers."

I thought that was a partisan rag without journalistic credentials?

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, McCain's ads will start to call his opponent "Barack !Hussein! Obama" now?

[classical liberal]

Wait, McCain plans to attack Obama even more?  What is he going to do?

"Hey Barack...call me!"

ROTFLOL

[JSojourner]

Wait, McCain plans to attack Obama even more?  What is he going to do?

"Hey Barack...call me!"

ROTFLOL

You get the reference, no?