Merkel running for 4th term

[ingemann]

I liked that the politico article mentioned both Kohl and Bismark, not sure if Merkel will rank as high as them. Is she likely to win?

We're talking about Bismarck 125 years after his death, he's still a household name, even among non-Germans he's widely known and a divisive character but still a politician modern politician are compared positive to, he's in the champions league of historic politicians. No, Merkel is no Bismarck, and that would also be a insane high standard to hold her up to. But Bismarck is just a figure all modern German Kanslers are compared to, if they're successful.

As for Kohl, I think she's a superior politician, I personal don't think people will talk much about Kohl in a few decades time, of course the question is also how big a splash Merkel is going to make in the history books, I could imagine that the reason we see her as something unique, is more a question that Germany have come out of the post-reunification crisis under her (thanks to Schröders reforms) and Germany suddenly have to deal with EU as the biggest economy and the biggest country in it. She may very well just be the first of many German Kanslers who have to deal with the changed balance of power in Europe, a Europe where the Paris-Berlin axis have broken down, and Germany suddenly have to deal with their new and unwelcomed (as much in Berlin as in Paris) dominance.

[ingemann]

Kohl was just one of several conservative, anti-Communist Western leaders in the 80s, overshadowed by Reagan and Thatcher. Merkel is the leader of her own little bloc though. She's a leader in global politics rather than a passenger. She will be a larger figure in history than Kohl for sure.

Of course that's also a result of a Germany changing from a country the size of France or UK to one significant stronger with their own sphere of influence to the east (which ironic are welcomed today, I think Merkel really need to thank both Putin and the French government, for the northern east Europeans seeing Berlin as representants for their interests).

[ingemann]

Kohl was just one of several conservative, anti-Communist Western leaders in the 80s, overshadowed by Reagan and Thatcher. Merkel is the leader of her own little bloc though. She's a leader in global politics rather than a passenger. She will be a larger figure in history than Kohl for sure.

Of course that's also a result of a Germany changing from a country the size of France or UK to one significant stronger with their own sphere of influence to the east (which ironic are welcomed today, I think Merkel really need to thank both Putin and the French government, for the northern east Europeans seeing Berlin as representants for their interests).

That may not last that much though because Germany is losing population while France gains.
If the current pattern is sustained then in a few years the latter will surpass the former not only in terms of population but also of GDP.

Not really even if we took the "worst" case scenario for Germany and "best" for France, it would hardly be in a few years, but rather in 2050, and the German GDP would take decades more to overtake if ever.

But looking at the newest numbers, while the German birth rate are lower than it death rate, the German population are growing thanks to immigration and it's growing more in absolut numbers than the French, and immigration usual result in a bump in the lower end of the population pyramid resulting in a lowering of the age of statistic average German.

[ingemann]

Merkel would never enter a coalition with the Petry-AfD.

Even if FDP were unavailable and the only other option were yet another grand coalition with the SDP?

Why should she have a problem with another grand coalition? She seem to have a lot better working relationship with SPD than she had with FDP and AFD are a lot worse, so why should she enter the coalition with a bunch of people who in best case are just right wing crazies. In worst case she destroy the taboo SPD has with working with the Linke, if Merkel decides to work with right wing crazies.