UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[Tintrlvr]

A regular civil war among the Lincolnshire Independents here!

[Tintrlvr]

Highest by election turnout since 1984 Enfield Southgate.

Crewe & Nantwich in 2008 was higher.

[Tintrlvr]

Very strong result for the Conservatives, though of course this is a safe seat that they were at no risk of losing while polling well. A sign that the vulnerability on display in Richmond Park is relatively limited in scope to seats that were historically LD-Con marginals, not that anyone expected the LDs were ever going to challenge here.

Surprised by how much of a dud Victoria Ayling turned out to be for UKIP. She was supposed to be a star candidate. A sign that the UKIP tide is ebbing, I think.

Solid result for the LDs, back to third place ahead of Labour and making some gains (unlike everyone else) even in a no-hope type of seat. Still well below their 2010 result (whereas they are probably back to 2010 across a lot of areas further south), but that's no shock as a lot of their 2010 vote in a place like this were generic protest voters who are now voting UKIP, or maybe for Marianne Overton.

Joke result for Labour, fourth place is terrible. They were putting up solid results in the 30-35% range here 20 years ago and might have even won the seat had there been a by-election in, say, 1995. Could have been worse given that Overton nipped at their heels. It seems clear that they are squandering an opportunity with Corbyn, who turns off both middle class liberal voters and working class voters of a less liberal strain, but the alternatives are mostly different rather than better.

[Tintrlvr]

Dunno if its really a coup that the Tories gain a seat that only needs a 3% swing - sure its not really a good sign for the government to be gaining seats during their term but its not like the Tories are suddenly competitive in somewhere like central Manchester or something...

Copeland/Whitehaven has been Labour held for a very long time but would have been lost at the 1983, 1987 and probably 1992 elections on present boundaries (it was expanded significantly for the 2010 election). Very polarised constituency; the Labour vote is anchored in the former West Cumberland coalfield and is solid, but the bulk of the rest of the seat (inc./esp. where senior Sellafield employees live) is staunchly Tory. Sellafield dominates the local economy.

Sure; but you can guarantee that the press will talk about "The Conservatives are now winning seats that they haven't won since 1931" if they gain the seat.

The Tories already have a majority. If Labour are losing additional seats in by-elections, that's a disaster.

For what it's worth, a governing party hasn't gained a seat in a by-election since Mitcham & Morden in 1982, not at all a good precedent for Labour if it happens but also a sign that it may be more difficult than some expect for the Tories to make a gain here.

[Tintrlvr]

Labor could become the new whigs with slavery, had 2 voter factions of considerable clout & couldn't take a decision with Libs n Green taking 1 part n Tories n UKIP taking the other.

This fence sitting is only gonna hurt them. Corbyn has to do a better job articulating it. The focus should be on young voters.

You're better off hoping for pigs to fly than for Corbyn to do a better job.

[Tintrlvr]

Apparently the Tories are now 1/8 to win Copeland.

Seems crazy. They might win, sure, but to be favored so strongly?

I was going to bet on Labour holding Copeland last week when the odds were really good, but they've been cut now.

I'd put money on Labour holds in both- with UKIP even coming 3rd in Stoke. Both campaigns have had a lot thrown at them, and Copeland has been turned in a referendum on the NHS. The biggest danger is the Lib-Dems surging in either seat, and costing Labour the seats.

On brexit it's worth noting that if every Remain voter in Stoke voted Lib Dem they'd win the seat

Did the Lib Dems put any effort at all into Stoke? Seems unlikely that they would; it would have been an uphill climb for them in a by-election in 2003.

[Tintrlvr]

What's the reason for Labour's abysmal performance in these by-elections and their national polling? Is it simply the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn? Or are there more significant factors?

Corbyn is an extremely incompetent leader. From a policy perspective, he's also somewhat out of step with mainstream Britain, but that alone wouldn't necessarily be enough to cause Labour to lose seats like Copeland. The real problem is that Labour under his leadership has been an organizational disaster, flailing from one crisis to the next and blaming all of their problems on "Blairites," never mind that Tony Blair left office a full decade ago. Corbyn's supporters are worse than the man himself and focused on internal party score-settling against perceived enemies (mainly those evil center-leftist traitors) and purity rituals over any serious effort to win over voters, and Corbyn has demonstrated no interest whatsoever in trying to bring them to heel. It certainly doesn't help that Labour is the only party that hasn't been able to come up with a semi-cogent position (or any position at all, really) on Brexit, which continues to be the issue du jour, even though in theory Brexit should be at least as tough for the Tories to navigate as Labour (but May is reasonably competent and the party not busy with internal feuding).

[Tintrlvr]

Labour will probably perform best in at the next election in places where there is very little 2015 UKIP vote to speak of (the Tories main pool of new voters). For example Labour would probably stand a chance at holding Hampstead and Kilburn (Tory target seat 11) even in a nationwide meltdown for example. Anywhere with large Green votes should deliver reasonable performances too, though unfortunately for them the Green vote is very low in most Con-Lab marginals.

Hampstead and Kilburn may not be the best example. While I agree that it is deeply unlikely to be lost to the Tories, and I am not a particular Lib Dem fantasist, it is in that very peculiar group of seats that will have a lot of both Labour to Lib Dem and Tory to Lib Dem switchers over Brexit, and it does have a history of Lib Dem strength. I could see Labour losing it in that direction before they lose it to the Tories.

[Tintrlvr]

Also worth noting we'll have another by-election after Gerald Kaufman passed away- I can't remember the name of the seat but it's a 16,000 Labour majority, but was only 6,000 back in 2010 due to the high lib dem vote.

If Labour lose this seat then we should just give up

Ha. Manchester Gorton would have been a prime Lib Dem by-election target in 2004! Will be rock-solid Labour, Greens or maybe LDs in a distant second. I think this was one of the Greens' best seats in the country in 2015 (9.8%) and one of the five seats where they came second (though by far the most distant second of the five), so could see them trying to make some effort and getting to 20-25% if they're lucky.

For what it's worth, the seat was about 62% Remain. Maybe the strongest Remain constituency in the North?

[Tintrlvr]

Mayo was the Green candidate in Wythenshawe and Sale East in 2015, getting 3.8%. She's from Trafford. Sounds like the Greens aren't planning to try here.

The Lib Dem candidate was also their candidate in 1997 and 2001, coming in a distant second each time.

[Tintrlvr]

Probably an easy SF hold.

Any chance it might flip.  If people like the Tories it would make sense to go DUP, although considering this is mostly Catholic doubt that is the case.  However if they want to get rid of the Tories sooner wouldn't voting Social Democratic & Labour make more sense as by Sinn Fein members abstaining they essentially give the Tories an extra three seat cushion than they would otherwise have.

SF voters clearly don't care if SF MPs reduce the threshold needed for Westminster majorities enough for it to overcome their vote preferences. Many SF voters would probably secretly prefer Tory governments and a hard Brexit because it makes Irish unification more likely, and, other than Brexit, the government in Westminster has little impact on NI laws and governance. The SDLP has zero organizational presence in this part of NI. I think the best chance of a non-SF winner is if some prominent local Catholic politician decides to run as an independent, which is certainly possible, although no one comes to mind.

[Tintrlvr]

This is Safe LAB, right?

Massive majority - 45pts - last year and majority never lower than 15pts since the early 90s, so, yeah. Multiethnic working class residential constituency, mixture of council estates (big ones) and once quite smart but now pretty downscale terraces. Blackheath is quite middle class, but is just one ward. Traditional stronghold as well: most of the seat had continuous Labour representation - in the earlier part of the period the MP was Herbert Morrison - 1945-83.

... though it did vote Tory in 1983 and 1987, on slightly different boundaries.  Like a lot of London seats it swung further to the Tories in 1987 after the initial gain in 1983.  I think, though, that it's one of those cases where the 1983 and 1987 results seem like they're from a different world.  (See also Nottingham.)

Incidentally, in 1983 the SDP candidate was one Polly Toynbee.

Obviously absolutely 0% chance of the Tories winning now. Would give maybe a combined 2% chance to the LDs and the Greens, 98% chance to Labour, but even that might be generous to the LDs and Greens. If the by-election were happening in the mid-aughts, it would have been a prime LD by-election target, which is the only reason to have some pause about 100% certainty.

[Tintrlvr]

I believe Neath Port Talbot was one of the last places where they still had local council representation. Like how the continuity Liberals have or had lingering representation in a few spots (Wyre Forest and Liverpool, I believe, and maybe one or two other hotspots).

Is the Renew candidate like a de facto TIG candidate?

[Tintrlvr]

Labour hold Newport West, small swing to the Tories but nothing significant. UKIP third.

[Tintrlvr]

There is no ChUK-TIG candidate.  There were reports that they (rather at the last minute, it would seem) approached the Lib Dems and Greens with an offer that the three parties should support an independent pro-Remain candidate, but that it fell through.

Classic CUK: Sitting it out and watching others fool around.

I’m sure the real reason is that they had no takers to be their candidate, and there was no motivation for the Lib Dem to drop her party label. What a train wreck TIG has turned out to be.

[Tintrlvr]

The Peterborough result in the Euros is potentially relevant here:

Brex: 38.3% (+38.3)
Lab: 17.2% (-7.9)
LDem: 15.4% (+10.9)
Con: 10.9% (-14.7)
Grn: 10.8% (+5.1)
UKIP: 3.6% (-29.9)

Looks like it will be tough for the Tories to take it but also tough for Labour to hold it. Lib Dems in third in the Euros probably don't have the momentum to be in contention on a highly fragmented result, either. Lean Brexit Party?

[Tintrlvr]

Sackville Stopford-Sackville?

Sounds like a Canadian riding.

Or a distant Baggins relation.

[Tintrlvr]

but the PC's will no doubt make advances hard.

In Brecon & Radnor? Hahahahahahahahahahahaha. Julian Assange has a better chance of getting a job at the NSA than Plaid have of making a surge there lmao.

You read it wrong. I meant the PC's will make the Lib-Dems advances hard. They have a minor presence in the seat, and their voter base in a hypothetical Lib-Dem vs Tory main matchup poaches more from the Lib-Dem side of the equation. So we cannot just look at the 51-49 Brexit result and say that as long as the Remain vote is united, they can defeat the divided Tories and Brexit voters. The Remain vote will be just as divided here, especially since the PCs are presently a party whose floor and ceiling are extremely close to each other. So there will be three main Remain options: LD, Lab (tepidly), PC, while two main Brexit options: Brexit and Tories.

PC is not going to gain votes in Brecon & Radnorshire. They have zero presence there (PC has lost its deposit there at every election since 1974), and it's probably the least "Welsh" identifying seat in Wales other than Monmouth. PC also has no incentive to campaign just to get a derisory result anyway.

[Tintrlvr]

SNP might have fancied a go here at the height of their "wave", probably not now though.

No way, even at the SNP's height. In a by-election where the SNP was seriously contesting, voters would have rallied around the likeliest anti-independence candidate (probably the Lib Dem but maybe a Tory, Labour or independent candidate in the right situation). Shetland is as strongly anti-independence as the borders, not somewhere the SNP can win.

[Tintrlvr]

Well the 2015 GE result in O&S shows they came close at least.

Only because the voters were trying to punish the Lib Dems (yesterday's news), but point taken.

[Tintrlvr]

Does anyone know whether the Twitter rumours that the LDs are in trouble tomorrow have any basis? Obviously its Twitter so I'm taking it all with a tanker-load of salt but there's a sad lack of surprise to the whole thing that's making me a bit wary.

Or I'm just reading too deeply into stupid rumours on social media like an idiot.

I think it's just anxiety. The betting markets went a little crazy for a while, putting the odds of a Tory hold as low as 2-3%, which was always overstating things. That's pulled back somewhat, but it doesn't seem like the fundamentals have changed much. Projecting too much confidence is risky, since it causes complacency among your voters. I don't think the LDs have this in the bag, but I don't think anything has changed since a week or two ago, either, when people seemed very confident in the LDs' chances. It's worth pointing out that Paddy Ashdown declared on the day of the Newbury by-election that it was a close-fought, very uncertain race... the Lib Dems won by nearly 40 points.

[Tintrlvr]

The result looks basically like the one public poll released of the by-election, except Brexit Party -10 and Tories +10 as a "Boris bounce".

[Tintrlvr]

Does anybody know which Tories in particular are considering defecting to the Lib Dems after this result? I remember hearing 5 or 6 were.

Rumoured defections don't have a great track record, but the names which keep coming up are Guto Bebb (Aberconwy) and Phillip Lee (Bracknell).

Apparently Frank Field, the ex-Labour Independent MP for Birkenhead, is making a statement later today, but he's a Brexiteer so most unlikely to be joining the Lib Dems.

Bebb used to be in Plaid in the 90s so I would think he’d be more likely to defect to them than the LDs. But who knows