OH-2 Special Election Coverage and Prediction thread...

[Gabu]

I'm going to say...

Schmidt - 65
Hackett - 35

Not because this is what I actually think will happen, but if I shoot this low, I can only be pleasantly surprised.

[Gabu]

Schmidt's internal polling (conducted by Zogby) had her leading Hackett by comfortable double digits

Zogby?

Oh good, that means Hackett will win.

[Gabu]

Where's mypalfish when you need him?

[Gabu]

Here is the best site to get results... Just Click on a County

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050802/NEWS01/308020015

Currently their site says this:



Uh, I think their program may have a few bugs in it.

[Gabu]

County results so far, according to this page:

Adams (34% precincts reporting)
Hackett: 721 (57%)
Schmidt: 551 (43%)

Brown (100% precincts reporting)
Hackett: 2,279 (57%)
Schmidt: 1,693 (43%)

Clermont (only absentee ballots)
Schmidt: 1,158 (61%)
Hackett: 750 (39%)

Hamilton (20% precincts reporting)
Schmidt: 5,933 (51%)
Hackett: 5,738 (49%)

Pike (50% precincts reporting)
Hackett: 965 (61%)
Schmidt: 611 (39%)

Scioto (71% precincts reporting)
Hackett: 2,379 (66%)
Schmidt: 1,213 (34%)

Warren (39% precincts reporting)
Schmidt: 2,850 (55%)
Hackett: 2,322 (45%)

[Gabu]

Damn, this is a lot closer than I thought.  I still think Schmidt will pull it off, as early results usually favor the Democrat in almost any election.  I might still be wrong though.

Yes, I had a gut feeling that Schmidt would do a lot better than she's currently doing.  For Hackett still to be (barely) in the lead after a majority of the precincts are reporting is quite the accomplishment, even if Schmidt does win in the end.

EDIT: Well, he was in the lead when I started posting this, at least.

[Gabu]

Yeah, Schmidt's won.

I don't think anything negative can be said about Hackett's performance, though, in a congressional district in which Bush got 63% of the vote.

[Gabu]

Wow, Hackett even broke 40% in Warren County, where Portman got 78% of the vote last November.  I can't see anywhere of particular strength for Schmidt; it just happens that it wasn't quite enough to tip the election to Hackett.

[Gabu]

Do you think Hackett would ask for a recount?  It is pretty close.

Possibly.  I think a justification for it certainly could be made, if Schmidt fails to break 51%.

[Gabu]

Why does anyone care about the results of this race?

Because it's interesting, purely to see how well a Democrat can do in a race that is so heavily conservative and traditionally Republican.

[Gabu]

Schmidt has won at this point.  Kudos to her.  But if this is any sign of what is to come next year, the party is on its way to taking its place in the sun.

That's just the thing. It's not an indication of anything to come. Next year, Schmidt will win this by the normal totals in a non-by election.

Sorta... if the Democratic Party could find a lot more candidates like Hackett, they could potentially make some serious headway.

That's a very large "if", however.

[Gabu]

Why does anyone care about the results of this race?

Because it's interesting, purely to see how well a Democrat can do in a race that is so heavily conservative and traditionally Republican.

Um, a Democrat who doesn't even identify himself as a Democrat in his ads, and runs entirely on being an Iraq war "hawk."

He even ran Daschle-esque commercials linking himself to Bush.

And?

He's still a Democrat, and he's still currently down less than a thousand votes in the most conservative congressional district in Ohio.  I don't see how his tactics change that.

[Gabu]

Now that I think of it I am sure there are congressional districts no Republican could win in.

Well, yes, just take a look at pretty well any Massachusetts congressional district race.  The guy with a "D" by his name always gets upwards of 70% of the vote.

If you want a party that honestly can have a chance to win in every single election in the entire country, that party's base would have to be so ill-defined that the party could never stand for very long of a time.

[Gabu]

Here's a completely random, but interesting, fact: the counties in which Hackett did the best were the least populous counties in the district.

[Gabu]

This thread has certainly degenerated in a hurry.

[Gabu]

Pike has (last time I checked) a big nuclear power station

somehow, the idea that Ohiovians have nuclear technology frightens me.

Oh god, it's Kim Jong-Taft.