2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[LimoLiberal]

It’s so obvious the Democratic generic ballot lead is collapsing, at this rate Republicans could have a 1-2 point generic ballot lead by November. The biggest problem for Democrats is that when the Dow Jones is hitting records every day (it’s going to be 30,000 by the midterms), and the GDP is growing at 3% every quarter people don’t feel compelled to throw the Incumbent party out of Congress.

Oh really? Tell that to Senator-elect Jarchow.

Seriously Lear, we are sick of this. Enough with your bullsh**t.

[McGovernForPrez]

Yeah I think the economy is a huge part of why Republicans are seeing a generic ballot boon.  A lot of on the fence voters are being calmed down sheerly by the state the economy is in right now. That doesn't mean things are over for Dems though. The economy is a fickle mistress and could turn on Republicans at any moment.

[Virginiá]

Yeah I think the economy is a huge part of why Republicans are seeing a generic ballot boon.  A lot of on the fence voters are being calmed down sheerly by the state the economy is in right now. That doesn't mean things are over for Dems though. The economy is a fickle mistress and could turn on Republicans at any moment.

There is also, as Brittain33 pointed out earlier, the caveat that a big part of the change in generic ballot is going from Democrat->undecided rather than Democrat->Republican (although they have gotten a bump as well).

[Landslide Lyndon]

It’s so obvious the Democratic generic ballot lead is collapsing, at this rate Republicans could have a 1-2 point generic ballot lead by November. The biggest problem for Democrats is that when the Dow Jones is hitting records every day (it’s going to be 30,000 by the midterms), and the GDP is growing at 3% every quarter people don’t feel compelled to throw the Incumbent party out of Congress.

Oh really? Tell that to Senator-elect Jarchow.

Seriously Lear, we are sick of this. Enough with your bullsh**t.

The Ignore button is your friend.

If only some people stopped quoting him and forcing us to read his inanities.

[Jeppe]

It’s so obvious the Democratic generic ballot lead is collapsing, at this rate Republicans could have a 1-2 point generic ballot lead by November. The biggest problem for Democrats is that when the Dow Jones is hitting records every day (it’s going to be 30,000 by the midterms), and the GDP is growing at 3% every quarter people don’t feel compelled to throw the Incumbent party out of Congress.

Oh really? Tell that to Senator-elect Jarchow.

Seriously Lear, we are sick of this. Enough with your bullsh**t.

The Ignore button is your friend.

If only some people stopped quoting him and forcing us to read his inanities.

[Horus]

It's clear the GOP is going to make gains in November. The question is, how many seats? I'm guessing around 10 right now, but could be close to 15.

[Cactus Jack]

It's clear the GOP is going to make gains in November. The question is, how many seats? I'm guessing around 10 right now, but could be close to 15.

Onto Ignore you go.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's clear the GOP is going to make gains in November. The question is, how many seats? I'm guessing around 10 right now, but could be close to 15.

No, it's not clear.  What is your rationale for this opinion?

[Gass3268]

Sabato Crystal Ball Changes:

[Oryxslayer]

Sabato Crystal Ball Changes:

Most of this is catchup to cook...interesting that they have not pushed CA-39 to Lean D yeat.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist/NPR, 1350 adults, Jan 8-10 (change from last month)

D 46 (-4)
R 40 (+3)

[Brittain33]

Marist/NPR, 1350 adults, Jan 8-10 (change from last month)

D 46 (-4)
R 40 (+3)

Ow.

[Gass3268]

Sabato Crystal Ball Changes:

Most of this is catchup to cook...interesting that they have not pushed CA-39 to Lean D yeat.

My guess is a lot of those California seats won't change until after the primaries.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Marist/NPR, 1350 adults, Jan 8-10 (change from last month)

D 46 (-4)
R 40 (+3)

The thing is that 1) some bouncing around is to be expected (I still think the generic ballot will probably be between +8 and +12 by mid-October), 2) the playing field in the House has already expanded to the point that I don’t think we need an 8-9 point win in the House popular vote to flip the chamber and the seat-by-seat math for the Republicans keeping it is getting tougher and tougher, 3) we may well be nearing a government shutdown which the Republicans will almost certainly be blamed for, and 4) Democrats have been consistently getting crazy swings in specials whether it be GA-6, SC-5, Senator Doug Jones, the WI state Senate seat, state legislature specials in OK, TN, and NH, local races in the Philly suburbs, or pretty much everything in VA.  

[LimoLiberal]

Marist/NPR, 1350 adults, Jan 8-10 (change from last month)

D 46 (-4)
R 40 (+3)

Not enough to win the house. Bad trend for Democrats.

[Horus]

Marist/NPR, 1350 adults, Jan 8-10 (change from last month)

D 46 (-4)
R 40 (+3)

Ow.

But apparently I'm a troll who should be put on ignore. This election has 2002 written all over it.

[LimoLiberal]

Marist/NPR, 1350 adults, Jan 8-10 (change from last month)

D 46 (-4)
R 40 (+3)

Not enough to win the house. Bad trend for Democrats.

You act as if polls don't go up or down for candidates/parties in election cycles, Andrew.

Bruh, I'm not Andrew from RRH or whatever. Cut it out with that sh*t.

[_]

LimoLiberal back at it again with that shilling for Rs.

Anyway the Generic Ballot shouldn't really matter until September or so.

[LimoLiberal]

Marist/NPR, 1350 adults, Jan 8-10 (change from last month)

D 46 (-4)
R 40 (+3)

Ow.

But apparently I'm a troll who should be put on ignore. This election has 2002 written all over it.

Well yes, you are either a troll or the most cynical person in the world (didn't you also say Moore would win by double digits and Gillespie would win?). D+6 on the GCB is still worlds better than the R+5 2002 was.

lol it's not going to be 2002. that's a different poster. Democrats will win the national house vote, by some margin.

[Devout Centrist]

Lord forbid this happens in 2020. We'll have mass suicides.

[Usili]

Aww man. :/

https://twitter.com/EWagsterPettus/status/954032336789823494

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Aww man. :/

https://twitter.com/EWagsterPettus/status/954032336789823494

You must be logged in to read this quote.

"scheduled U.S. Senate race"

which is the right move. Run for whichever seat McDaniel runs.

Yeah I thought we wanted him to run for Thad's seat in the (likely) event he has to resign and McDaniel's runs for the GOP nom.

[LimoLiberal]

Qpac: D+11
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2514
Was D+17 like five days ago

Also, 40-59 people are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the nation. Best since 2005. Could be a major boon to Republicans and Trump.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Qpac: D+11
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2514
Was D+17 like five days ago

Also, 40-59 people are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the nation. Best since 2005. Could be a major boon to Republicans and Trump.

The GOP is not going to win 2018. Get that in your head.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Even FiveThirtyEight's analysts are shrugging off the polls.