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Polls during the 1996 election cycle had Clinton above 50% during many stretches of time, but they ended up having a rather terrible cycle that year: the final NPV polling average as of Election Day, as calculated (retroactively) using 538’s polling model would have been D+12.8, which turned out to be 4.3 points above the actual NPV margin of D+8.5. Likewise, the final GCB polling average would have been D+5.4, which was 5.1 points above the actual House NPV of D+0.3 (and this House polling error probably turned what was expected to be a Democratic flip of the House into a Republican hold of that chamber).

Biden is gonna win Rs need to stop Nick picking him based on R polls

This is WILD stuff guys and gals. This guy used to be a highly respected Hollywood actor. Apparently him going off the deep end is not a recent development though. He claimed to have invented a new form of math a while back, I've discovered.

BISEXUAL TONES OF PERIODIC ELEMENTS
From 4:10 to 4:45 in the video :

He also claims to have invented a new form of flight based on something using it's own center of gravity to continue falling without actually falling. Or something. Yet it has propellers as well. Implied that space is not a vacuum and that water cannot be turned into a gas.

FULL 3 HOUR VIDEO:
https://youtu.be/g197xdRZsW0

Blue avatars clutching their pearls about Crockett's rhetoric remind me of a bully who goes crying to the teacher after one of his victims decides to retaliate and punches him in the nose.

[1) The polls seem to consistently be pointing to a Biden EC loss.]

Polls absolutely are not the end all be all, but what would concern me if I was the Biden campaign is three things.

1) The polls seem to consistently be pointing to a Biden EC loss. In fact since the dawn of this year there have only been 3 polls that would give Biden an electoral college win on the same split as 2020. Two of them were QPAC and the other was Reuters/Ipsos which could be useless since it was only 41-37 with high undecideds. If it was only Rasmussen or Trafalgar or R internals pointing to a Trump win, then I could understand throwing them out. However, it seems like everything is pointing to close to a tie in the PV (closer to Trump+1) which is an easy win for Trump in the electoral college.

2) The polls underestimated Trump twice before. That doesn't mean they will do so this time but its worth noting. Sure they were accurate in 2018 and off in 2022, but I value the two Presidential elections with Trump rather than midterms. Even in 2022, the generic ballot which was the only national poll was fairly accurate.

3) Down ballot Dems are doing fine. This is probably the most concerning part for the Biden campaign. In 2016 and 2020 the polls were overestimating Dems across the board from the Presidency to the Senate seat to the House races and beyond. However, down ballot Democrats are doing fairly decent and arguably better than you would expect considering Biden's struggles. They have a generic ballot lead and pretty solid margins in the Senate races like AZ/NV/PA/etc. If the polls were heavily off I think we would be seeing Casey trailing, and Klobuchar with a weak lead but we are not. Casey is up 5, Rosen is up 5, Baldwin is up 7, Gallego is up 6, Brown is up 5, and Tester is up nearly 6. Meanwhile Trump is leading in all of those states, and some by big margins. If you think polls are off the same way as 2022, why are Dems doing so well in those races? The problem Biden is facing is uniquely Biden, and doesn't show up anywhere else.

Except Trump’s EC advantage has largely disappeared according to polls. Polls show Trump having modest leads in GA/AZ/NV but only marginal ones in PA/MI/WI that could easily fall in Biden’s direction if he were to narrowly win the PV, and if they do he wins 270-268.

The thing is though GA and AZ polls tend to be the most accurate whereas Wisconsin is the worst. The popular vote is somewhere in the middle. Wisconsin literally trended R in 2020 and was only Biden+0.6 in 2020. If Trump is indeed up in the popular vote by 1 Wisconsin isn't even close right now.

Wrong again Trafalgar had Gov Lake Biden is gonna win AZ if Gallego won

We won the judge race in 23, by 12 pts and Baldwin is winning by 12

I love how Rs put up such inaccuracies like  they own WI and Evers won look at the compiled map it's wrong it has WI going R and Baldwin is up 12

Why are Trump cultists celebrating that Merchan's behavior guarantees a Trump conviction will be overturned by an appeals court?
Was it really that unprecedented and out of line what he did with Costello?

[You already know.]

He has a good chance here. Biden is expanding the map in the wrong direction.

Yup. Biden has a Somali problem in the Twin Cities and St. Cloud while TRUMP has plenty of votes to pick up Outstate.

Care to expand on what you mean by "Somali Problem"?

You already know.

Also as someone who lives in Outstate MN I'm not seeing that many votes available for Trump to pick up. The true rural areas (farms, small towns) are already heavily Republican while the outstate population centers (Rochester, Duluth, St Cloud, Mankato, Moorhead) are as Democratic as the Twin Cities suburbs and show no signs of moving Right.

Biden is massively unpopular in small town MN. Tim Walz and his solar panels haven’t done much to get energy costs down either. Inflation and ENERGY voters will swing away from Biden especially outstate.

No I honestly don't. Do you mean he will have problems keeping voters of East African decent because of the situation the mideast or do you mean Minnesotans are so racist that having a small part of the population with a different background will be a problem?

BTW living in rural Minnesota farmers LOVE solar panels and windmills, it's free money. Of course Biden and Walz don't get the credit they deserve for it but it's not why farmers are usually Republican.

Purely as speculation, perhaps what heatcharger means is that the good, Trump-loving folk of Minnesota will blame Biden so much for the non-Aryanwhite people living in their state that they will vote extra-hard for the man in orange makeup, thus making their votes count more and swinging the state to him?

[This is why Trump will win Nevada.]

I know it's anecdotal, but I was at a bachelor party all weekend in Atlantic City. The crowd in the casino didn't exactly feel like people are experiencing a reccession.

Don't lotteries become more successful during recessions? I'm not sure about casinos, but it might be signaling just the opposite or nothing at all.

Seems counterintuitive to me.

It's a commonly observed phenomenon in sociology that's taught in college.  People that are struggling economically usually turn to the lottery as a way out for them.  Unless they live nearby, Casinos are too cost prohibitive for the bottom 60% of Americans, because of travel and room expenses. The lottery is also a very low risk. In contrast to the lottery, people that visit Casinos are usually in the top 25% of wealth Earners, and the rich are less likely to play the lottery. Lastly, people can bet online, so there's no reason to go to a casino unless you have a lot of disposable income.  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3501160/

It makes perfect sense for people at a casino to have a generally positive view of the economy. The people really suffering from the economy ATM are the working-class people dealing the cards and serving the drinks. People in Las Vegas are losing their livelihood, or more accurately, their quality of life due to betting apps and websites that took business from Casinos during the shutdown, as well as paying more for every good and service. This is why Trump will win Nevada. He's winning support from the working class and small business owners, as well as more of the young voters that can't find a college-level job after graduating.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5973a5f1-95f0-4853-ad24-3a5bb54e442b
Here's the completed map
All the distinct sections of IRL TX are done in the same DRA map.

Impressive work!! So PVI-wise we get:
- TX at 7R in 2008, no change by 2020
- DS at 3D-13R in 2008, becoming 6D-3S-7R by 2020 (wow!)
- GV at 5D-1S-9R in 2008, becoming 7D-1S-7R by 2020
- AM at 3D-1S-7R in 2008, becoming 3D-3S-5R by 2020 (not as much change, interesting)
- RG at 7D-1R, becoming 6D-1S-1R by 2020
- LN stays at 6R obviously

So Republicans in DS and GV made what looked like effective gerrymanders back in 2010 but were completely swamped by the trends, and even with new gerrymanders in 2020 they can only hope to preserve the seats they kept. In AM it looks like the Republican gerrymander is still working to some extent, so I think the 2020 redistricting should see Dems gain quite a few seats. In RG it will be interesting if Dems can shore up the areas they're losing ground in, or if they'll just accept a swingy district to shore up their other incumbents.

Lol IPSOS AND MARIST HAS BIDEN +3