GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Maxwell]

Also a lot of GOP posters are assuming all GOP votes will go to Handel (which, might not be true - people could stay home or cast their ballot for Ossoff [far less likely])

[Maxwell]

I thought Ossoff had already been destroyed by the GOP machine That's why I guessed 45% of the vote but anticipated like 41 or 42%.

Let's check how the polls did (I'm assuming Ossoff ends up at 48%)

Emerson had Ossoff at 43% (+5)
Landmark had Ossoff at 45% (+3)
Fox 5 had Ossoff at 42% (+6)
Zpolitics had Ossoff at 41% (+7)

strong over-performance (or him being under-polled). Performance is less consistent for Republican candidates - Handel under-performed in some polls (Fox 5) and over-performed in others (ZPolitics) while being largely correct in a few others. Gray was largely over-polled, Hill under, and Moody's numbers look just about right.

[Maxwell]

Ossoff also hasn't spent a dime attacking any of the Republicans, while the Republicans have already spent quite a bit attacking Ossoff.

[Maxwell]

Strangely enough it's Landmark, usually kind of a trash pollster, that got this race closest.

[Maxwell]

It doesn't bode well for Ossoff that the Fulton folks are incapable of counting. The poorly educated and poor counters may decide this election.

First of all I love the poorly educated.

[Maxwell]

In Judson Hill's State Senate district special election, Democrats are well above 50%, but they're split among three candidates, with Christine Tribisch (the highest Dem) at 36%. She'll likely be running against Kay Kirkpatrick. I don't know anything about either of these candidates.

[Maxwell]

to be fair to Gray, the actual Trump-affiliated 45 Committee ran ads against him. But Gray was the person who kissed the most butt.

[Maxwell]

I have a small request for my fellow Dems  - PLEASE STOP BLOWING UP THE EARLY VOTE. It makes for a disappointing election night every time.

[Maxwell]

Bob Gray's twitter endorsement of Karen Handel included the words "we wish her godspeed". That doesn't sound confidence inspiring.

[Maxwell]

I was told that Trump doing poorly here was an anomaly and normal Republicans would DOMINATE, though.

again, more moving of the goal posts.

[Maxwell]

Averaging the last four polls, Ossoff would over-perform his polling by 5% points if we assume he ends up at 47.7%. Handel, to her credit, also over-performed, but by about 2%.

the big joke tonight is none other than Bob Gray. Sounds like the 45 Committee killed his dream.

[Maxwell]

lol

[Maxwell]

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[Maxwell]

A loss is a loss. More proof that the Democrats need to move to the center. This isn't Kenosha. A DLC Democrat like Zell Miller might've had a chance here.

can we wait like five seconds before crying christ on a stick dude

[Maxwell]

I mean, obviously Evan Bayh would have gotten 60% in this race.

that's not true, Bayh lost by double digits in 20... oh you were being sarcastic

[Maxwell]

Gabriel Debenedetti @gdebenedetti
•'16 margin in KS4: R+31. '17: +7 (-24 swing)
•'16 margin in GA-06: R+24. '17: ~even (-24ish)
•'16 in MT-AL: R+15
•'16 in SC-5: R+20

You guys dropped $10 million on this race and matched Clinton's performance

Money where most of it hasn't even been dropped yet, while Republicans have already blown $6 million on anti-Ossoff ads. All while Ossoff hasn't dropped a dime in Anti-Handel ads and, again, he still has a whole lot of his $8.3 Million.

[Maxwell]

"Making Metro Atlantaa the Silicon Valley of the South"

ewww he's lost my vote.

[Maxwell]

Uniting behind the nominee is one thing. But Republicans do not have to shed many voters to lose this thing.

[Maxwell]

Uniting behind the nominee is one thing. But Republicans do not have to shed many voters to lose this thing.

Assume that the runoff electorate will be the same as the jungle primary electorate at your own peril.  Often times, turnout is lower.  But sometimes, like in Mississippi in 2014, turnout is higher.  But it is rarely the exact same.

I also agree with this and it's one of my worries - that GOP turnout will go up because of the fright of potentially losing this district. Nevertheless, it looks like the Ossoff team is going to continue to put energy into this race.

[Maxwell]

From what I can tell Ossoff is pretty much a centrist - though maybe leans a little left on social issues. Not definitively a progressive, but probably not smart strategically for Senator Sanders to say that (though this isn't exactly a Team Bernie district).

[Maxwell]

oh shoot Ossoff might win this yet!

[Maxwell]

I don't think there's any evidence of the GOP consistently outperforming polls.

Ossoff overperformed in the first round (so did Handel, but doing better than expected as a Republican against other Republicans is different from doing better than expected against a Democrat).

I agree - overperforming/underperforming in the polls tends to be pretty random. There really is not a large enough sample size to dictate which party does it more and if that's a trend or not.