How likely is a double digit win for Hillary?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Granted it's 2014 and anything can happen, but Hillary seems well poised to win the major swing states (OH, FL) by decent margins, perhaps even bigger ones than Obama. I could also see her matching or even surpassing Obama's margins in NY & CA, and I don't think there's much of a chance the GOP candidate will carry TX by the same 15+ points as Romney, same goes for other well populated GOP states like AZ & MO. Could Hillary win by something like 54-44?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I'm banking on Hillary either doing slightly better than Obama or moderately worse, causing her to lose the election.

Well, Hillary is gonna do either better or worse than Obama, so...

Let me rephrase that... I mean that I don't think that Hillary isn't going to do significantly better than Obama, and that she could very well lose. It seems like a lot of people think that she is headed for a landslide, and I don't think that's the case.

With Obama hitting what is basically the Democratic floor with whites (barring a complete collapse) and still getting 51%, and with Hillary's popularity in the Latino community I find it hard to imagine her doing moderately worse.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Hillary should receive at least half of the popular vote. She will receive a minimum of 290 EV's and a maximum of 347. I hope she picks either Gov. Cuomo, Sen. Kaine, or Gov. Bill Richardson as her running mate. Hillary 2016!

Cuomo would be a disaster. Richardson is a decent choice if Hillary isn't holding a grudge.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Hillary should receive at least half of the popular vote. She will receive a minimum of 290 EV's and a maximum of 347. I hope she picks either Gov. Cuomo, Sen. Kaine, or Gov. Bill Richardson as her running mate. Hillary 2016!

Cuomo would be a disaster. Richardson is a decent choice if Hillary isn't holding a grudge.

Richardson would be a pretty bad choice. He's still got a lot of skeletons in his closet from New Mexico.

Yeah, I suppose it's probably better for Hillary to pick someone super clean, given the doubts about her own character among the electorate. I do think she should pick a Latino, since they are more than likely going to be her key to victory.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

If she chooses a latino running mate, her upside will be particularily high. And the answer is a resounding yes, very likely I think. Very likely as in 20-25% of the time. (Just a wild guess right now though.)

I sure hope she picks Julian Castro. That'd be a Palin-esque pick.

Remember when Sarah Palin went to Harvard Law School?  Because I sure don't.

Dubya has degrees from Harvard AND Yale. He is the genius president of our time.

Maybe that's a little hyperbolic, but he's certainly not as stupid as the media likes to insinuate.

Oh, I agree. I'm not insinuating that Castro is dumb or anything either. But, untested guys like him will get eviscerated under the pressure. Whether it's by overshadowing the lead on the ticket (Palin) or just completely cracking.

Sarah Palin's problem was that she was an idiot.  It wouldn't matter how experienced she was.  And, she didn't just overshadow McCain, she overshadowed him by making a fool of herself.  That's a key point to make.  

I've actually talked to Julian Castro briefly a couple of years ago.  He's quite impressive.  It's ridiculous to compare him to Sarah Palin.  The reason he has no chance of being VP is that he's not a Governor, Senator or high profile Federal official.  Maybe that shouldn't be a threshold qualification, but it is.

Honestly, I think this VP talk is stupid.  I don't want a VP selected for their race, gender or political appeal.  It ought to be the best person for the job.  If you pick that person, everything will take care of itself.

I wonder how Hispanics feel about all the condescending "a brown token with few qualifications will win the brown votes" talk among white liberals. I'd be pissed if I were seen only for the color of my skin, rather than my accomplishments.

Maybe they don't find it condescending, I dunno, but it could backfire.

Probably the same way blacks felt about white conservatives saying "Michael Steele will win the black votes" in 2006.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

lmao

You #ReadyforHillary guys are not so much jumping the shark as hurtling miles overhead at supersonic speeds.

Yes, because Hillary winning by double digits is such an outlandish and ridiculous scenario, that even suggesting it could be a possibility shows signs of delusion.

Indeed, anyone who thinks polls taken on 2016 in 2014 should be taken seriously does show signs of delusion

So when is your arbitrary cut off date for when polls magically begin to matter? January 1, 2016?

Polls certainly do matter at this point. Of course they aren't necessarily the same as the end result, but about half of the time they are a good indicator. For example, from directly after Kasich's election to November 6,2012, Obama held the same narrow lead over Romney and other GOP candidates in OH in most polls. People dismissed them in November 2010, but they were a good indicator of what was to come.

 Hillary's solid leads in FL & OH aren't to be dismissed simply because we're 2 years out.