Ron Paul's district (TX-14)

[nclib]

How does Paul perform in this district compared to other Republicans (Bush, Cornyn, Hutchinson, Perry)? Do most people just vote party line or does he attract some Democrats and repel some Republicans? I know there are no exit polls for this, but can anyone comment on the county results?

[Adlai Stevenson]

In 2006 Paul won by a relatively small 60%-40%, considering his previous margins; in 2004 he ran unopposed and in 2002 won 68%-32%.  However, TX-14 voted 67%-33% for Bush in 2004 and 64%-36% for him in 2004.  I don't know if the District was redrawn much last year though. 

[Padfoot]

In 2006 Paul won by a relatively small 60%-40%, considering his previous margins; in 2004 he ran unopposed and in 2002 won 68%-32%.  However, TX-14 voted 67%-33% for Bush in 2004 and 64%-36% for him in 2004.  I don't know if the District was redrawn much last year though. 

TX-14 was unaffected by the 2006 redistricting.  The following five districts were the only ones redrawn for 2006: 15, 21, 23, 25, and 28

[nclib]

However, TX-14 voted 67%-33% for Bush in 2004 and 64%-36% for him in 2004.

Was one of the 2004's supposed to mean 2000?

[Mr.Phips]

In 2006 Paul won by a relatively small 60%-40%, considering his previous margins; in 2004 he ran unopposed and in 2002 won 68%-32%.  However, TX-14 voted 67%-33% for Bush in 2004 and 64%-36% for him in 2004.  I don't know if the District was redrawn much last year though. 

TX-14 was unaffected by the 2006 redistricting.  The following five districts were the only ones redrawn for 2006: 15, 21, 23, 25, and 28

What happened to the Bush vote in all of those new districts?

[Alcon]

In 2006 Paul won by a relatively small 60%-40%, considering his previous margins; in 2004 he ran unopposed and in 2002 won 68%-32%.  However, TX-14 voted 67%-33% for Bush in 2004 and 64%-36% for him in 2004.  I don't know if the District was redrawn much last year though. 

TX-14 was unaffected by the 2006 redistricting.  The following five districts were the only ones redrawn for 2006: 15, 21, 23, 25, and 28

What happened to the Bush vote in all of those new districts?

Well, there wasn't a Bush vote in 2006.  Or maybe I miss your meaning?

[Verily]

In 2006 Paul won by a relatively small 60%-40%, considering his previous margins; in 2004 he ran unopposed and in 2002 won 68%-32%.  However, TX-14 voted 67%-33% for Bush in 2004 and 64%-36% for him in 2004.  I don't know if the District was redrawn much last year though. 

TX-14 was unaffected by the 2006 redistricting.  The following five districts were the only ones redrawn for 2006: 15, 21, 23, 25, and 28

What happened to the Bush vote in all of those new districts?

Well, there wasn't a Bush vote in 2006.  Or maybe I miss your meaning?

What was the vote in those newly drawn districts in 2004, I assume.

They were all extremely safe for their party except TX-23, which went slightly for Bush (something like 52-48).

[Mr.Phips]

In 2006 Paul won by a relatively small 60%-40%, considering his previous margins; in 2004 he ran unopposed and in 2002 won 68%-32%.  However, TX-14 voted 67%-33% for Bush in 2004 and 64%-36% for him in 2004.  I don't know if the District was redrawn much last year though. 

TX-14 was unaffected by the 2006 redistricting.  The following five districts were the only ones redrawn for 2006: 15, 21, 23, 25, and 28

What happened to the Bush vote in all of those new districts?

Well, there wasn't a Bush vote in 2006.  Or maybe I miss your meaning?

What was the vote in those newly drawn districts in 2004, I assume.

They were all extremely safe for their party except TX-23, which went slightly for Bush (something like 52-48).

There were a lot of Republican votes that were taken from TX-23.  It was originally 65% Bush and now is only 52% Bush.  They must have gone somewhere.

[Adlai Stevenson]

However, TX-14 voted 67%-33% for Bush in 2004 and 64%-36% for him in 2004.

Was one of the 2004's supposed to mean 2000?

Yes it was sorry. 

[Verily]

In 2006 Paul won by a relatively small 60%-40%, considering his previous margins; in 2004 he ran unopposed and in 2002 won 68%-32%.  However, TX-14 voted 67%-33% for Bush in 2004 and 64%-36% for him in 2004.  I don't know if the District was redrawn much last year though. 

TX-14 was unaffected by the 2006 redistricting.  The following five districts were the only ones redrawn for 2006: 15, 21, 23, 25, and 28

What happened to the Bush vote in all of those new districts?

Well, there wasn't a Bush vote in 2006.  Or maybe I miss your meaning?

What was the vote in those newly drawn districts in 2004, I assume.

They were all extremely safe for their party except TX-23, which went slightly for Bush (something like 52-48).

There were a lot of Republican votes that were taken from TX-23.  It was originally 65% Bush and now is only 52% Bush.  They must have gone somewhere.

Into another Republican-controlled district. I don't recall which number, but it's the one based in suburban San Antonio.

[Sam Spade]

In 2006 Paul won by a relatively small 60%-40%, considering his previous margins; in 2004 he ran unopposed and in 2002 won 68%-32%.  However, TX-14 voted 67%-33% for Bush in 2004 and 64%-36% for him in 2004.  I don't know if the District was redrawn much last year though. 

TX-14 was unaffected by the 2006 redistricting.  The following five districts were the only ones redrawn for 2006: 15, 21, 23, 25, and 28

What happened to the Bush vote in all of those new districts?

Well, there wasn't a Bush vote in 2006.  Or maybe I miss your meaning?

What was the vote in those newly drawn districts in 2004, I assume.

They were all extremely safe for their party except TX-23, which went slightly for Bush (something like 52-48).

The new TX-23 went 57% for Bush, not 52% in 2004 (Bonilla + generic Republican running in TX-28 = 59%).  I did the precinct-by-precinct math for myself, so I know this is 100% correct.

The other CDs I didn't do myself, but I was told what they were by someone else.  I vaguely remember what I was told.

TX-15 - Went from being around 53% Bush to being about 35% Bush
TX-21 - Went from being around 60% Bush to being about 65% Bush
TX-25 - Went from being around 35% Bush to being about 48% Bush
TX-28 - Stayed right around 50-50.

TX-23 gave half of Laredo to TX-28 and some northern white Rep suburbs and the ultra GOP Hill County to TX-21.  TX-28 in turn gave some inner-city San Antonio suburbs to TX-23 and some (less) inner-city suburbs to TX-21.

I think TX-21 took a bit of Travis County from TX-25, in exchange for more of Hays County around San Marcos.  I also think that TX-25 got some white rural GOP areas in exchange for giving Hispanic areas to TX-15, though I forget exactly where those are.
Back to the original story:

TX-14 is tough one to measure historically, not just b/c boundaries have changed, but b/c that area has moved from Democratic to Republican strongly since Paul took the seat in 1996.

When the original TX-14 was created in the early to mid-1990s, it was projected to be swing CD.  The conservative Democrat Greg Laughlin represented the CD. 

After the 1994 elections, where Laughlin won by a 55-45 margin, he changed parties before the 1996 run, and was defeated by Ron Paul 55-45 in the Republican primary runoff election (Laughlin beat Paul 42-31 in the original primary).  Paul won a close election over Democrat attorney Charles "Lefty" Morris, 51%-48%.

In 1998, he beat former County Judge Loy Sneary 55-45 in a tough race that the Dems had originally targeted for a pick-up opportunity.  In 2000, he defeated Sneary again by a wider margin, 60-40.  In 2002, he beat Corey Windham 68-32, who I don't know anything about, frankly. 

In 2004, he ran unopposed.  In 2006, he beat rancher Shane Sklar 60-40.

Primary challenges have been almost non-existant; that has to do with the deal he and the Republicans have - they clear the field for him, he votes with them on procedural matters.