The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Ronnie]

ABC / WaPo also conducted a poll on the Syrian bombing:

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http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1187a1StrikeonSyria.pdf

[Ronnie]

Gallup

Approve: 40% (nc)
Disapprove: 54% (+1)

[Ronnie]

It's hard to see that deficit among millennials as anything but lethal for Republican presidential candidates, if not in the next presidential election, then in the ones after that.  They better do something to bring more young people on their side, and fast, or else they're in deep trouble.  Something tells me they've already read the tea leaves, and are just hoping to stack the Supreme Court with as many conservatives as possible in the meantime to make the impending left-wing rule less painful.

[Ronnie]

ABC:

42% Approve
53% Disapprove

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Why? Because Dems are out of touch.

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Of course it is just one poll, but...

I think that's the danger of reading too much into these approval rating polls.  A sizable number of Americans may not like Trump, or even think he's doing a bad job as president, and still vote for him in 2020 if they think they have no alternative in the opposition.  That's why it is critical the Dems run on something other than opposing Trump.

That said, I think one of the reasons for the lack of buyer's remorse is the prospect of President Clinton for Trump voters.  If Dems had put up someone people actually like, then those numbers might be a bigger cause for worry.

It might also be that people just don't like to admit they were wrong.

[Ronnie]

Trump says the ABC and NBC polls are "fake news" because they were "totally wrong in the General E" (never mind the fact that ABC/WaPo was only a point off in their final poll, because who cares about the truth?).

[Ronnie]

I think it's best to take that poll with a grain of salt.  It's still too early to determine who the "likely" voters in the 2018 midterms will be.

[Ronnie]

Also worth noting is that Trump's topline approval numbers according to the Fox poll are 45% approve to 48% disapprove.  While not exactly good, that's dramatically better for him than most other polls out there.

[Ronnie]

CNN/ORC (Conducted April 22-25):

Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 54%

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/26/politics/donald-trump-100-days-poll/index.html

[Ronnie]

Gallup (April 26th)

40% Approve (+1)
55% Disapprove (-1)

Very steady.

President Trump is going to need some miracles to get re-elected. I don't see him changing the political culture.  People who thought him a sick joke in 2016 simply consider him a monstrosity. The civilized opposition to him is now as loud as the Tea Party was against Obama at the corresponding time even if it is wittier. 

Dude come on if you don't see how easily Trump can turn out "real American" aganist Warren or how the Bernie crowd will protest vote Booker you are not paying attention

Also, don't forget that quite a few people will vote for him despite disapproving of his job performance, because they don't feel they have an alternative in the Democrats.

[Ronnie]

Why is he suddenly becoming more popular?

The media has set expectations so low for him that if he doesn't do something absolutely horrendous for a week, he gets a significant bump. 

[Ronnie]

Gallup

Approve: 43% (nc)
Disapprove: 51% (-1%)

[Ronnie]

I find it hard to believe he's just barely underwater in a state that voted for Hillary.  Probably best to take that poll with a grain of salt.

EDIT: Hmm, now that I'm taking a closer look at the crosstabs, does it really make sense that he's only down by 2 points overall when he's doing about as badly with Democrats as he is doing well with Republicans, and is down 13 points with unaffiliateds?  I'm thinking their sampling distribution might just be off.

[Ronnie]

It's Zogby! (4/28 - 4/29):

Approve: 43.3%
Disapprove: 50.1%

I found the poll through Breitbart, which touted Trump's level of support among Hispanics (lol).

[Ronnie]

People's Pundit Daily polls:

Ohio "Buckeye State Battleground Poll": 53% approve, 43% disapprove

Florida "Sunshine State Battleground Poll": 52% approve, 45% disapprove

Methodology?

A new pollster who comes up with outlier results and shows editorial bias is suspect.  Both Florida and Ohio are shown with Republican pluralities in partisan ID, something completely new.

No way is either state 10% more Republican than the Gallup polls for nationwide results.  

Actually, according to the 2016 CNN exit polls in Ohio and Florida, Republicans outnumbered Democrats in both states.

I still find it suspect that so many people approve of him in those states, even if the crosstabs and per-county estimates they put out seem oddly plausible.  Still, it's probably best to just throw those polls into the average.

[Ronnie]

IBD/TIPP (4/28-5/4)

Approve: 39% (+5 since last poll)
Disapprove: 54% (-2 since last poll)

[Ronnie]

Gallup

Approve: 42% (+2)
Disapprove: 53% (-1)

[Ronnie]

Gallup, May 8-10

All Adults
38% (-2)
55% (+2)

Don't worry, in three days, the public will forget everything that happened, like it always does.

[Ronnie]

NBC/WSJ (Conducted May 11th - May 13th)

Approve: 39%
Disapprove: 54%

Favorable: 38%
Unfavorable: 52%

Also, 41% of people say they have "quite a bit of" or a "great deal of" confidence in President Trump, while 57% say they don't have much confidence or have no real confidence at all in the president.

Not approval-related, but another relevant thing in this poll is that 78% of people want an independent special investigation into Russia.  Wow!