Electoral College problems for Republicans

[Mister Mets]

As Nichlem noted, the more important thing is popular support.

If Republicans win the popular vote by four points, they'll also have the electoral college.

There is a slight problem that the current EC may slightly favor Democrats. A uniform five point swing to Romney would have given him Ohio, Florida and Virginia, but he would have fallen just short in Colorado, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Iowa, allowing Obama to win the EC with 275 Electoral Votes while being over a point down in the popular vote. There are obviously other factors, especially considering how swing states are more elastic than the norm, so there is no uniform swing. Another Democrat might also do a little bit worse in key swing states.

Republicans have two small advantages which can matter in a close election.

Redistricting was better for conservative leaning states. McCain would have got 180 electoral votes rather than 173 with the same states and post-2010 electoral college values. George W Bush would have gotten 292 electoral votes rather than 286.

An electoral tie (which can happen if Republicans flip Florida, Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire) favors the GOP, since the House determines the results and Republicans have a majority of congressional delegations.

[Mister Mets]

What percentage of the white vote is Hillary's floor?

I'd guess it's pretty low. The thing to keep in mind is that Obama got 39% under favorable circumstances (Incumbent running for reelection during a recovering economy, credited for a strong response to Hurricane Sandy.)

Obama's 43 percent in 2008 was the Democrat's third-best showing with the group in the last twelve elections (Carter got 48 percent in 1976 while Clinton got 44 percent in 1996.)

34 percent seems like a plausible floor for HRC.

[Mister Mets]

What percentage of the white vote is Hillary's floor?

I'd guess it's pretty low. The thing to keep in mind is that Obama got 39% under favorable circumstances (Incumbent running for reelection during a recovering economy, credited for a strong response to Hurricane Sandy.)

Obama's 43 percent in 2008 was the Democrat's third-best showing with the group in the last twelve elections (Carter got 48 percent in 1976 while Clinton got 44 percent in 1996.)

34 percent seems like a plausible floor for HRC.

That sounds like revisionist history to me. Back during 2012, everyone was talking about how the sluggish economy was hurting Obama's chances.

There was debate about it. The thirteen keys guy thought it would help Obama.

Economic numbers were decent in late 2012.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82925.html

[Mister Mets]

As a citizen of 2012, I recall nobody thought the economy was good. It was not up for debate.

Hillary's floor is not 34%. She's not going to do 5 points worse than the black man and 10 points worse than her husband with white people.

Her floor is not comparable to people who have won. It's comparable to people who have lost.

In addition, Democrats have lost ground with white voters since Bill Clinton's administration.

[Mister Mets]

@pbrower: Minnesota, the last non-Democratic vote there was against McGovern

States change.

We have other threads about whether Hillary Clinton can plausibly win states Obama lost by more than eight points in a good year for Democrats. It seems reasonable to suggest that Republicans have a shot at winning a state Romney lost by eight points in a bad year for that party.

[Mister Mets]

@pbrower: Minnesota, the last non-Democratic vote there was against McGovern

States change.

We have other threads about whether Hillary Clinton can plausibly win states Obama lost by more than eight points in a good year for Democrats. It seems reasonable to suggest that Republicans have a shot at winning a state Romney lost by eight points in a bad year for that party.

States change, but Minnesota in 2016?

Romney lost by 8 when he lost by 4 nationally. McCain lost there by 11 when he lost by 7 nationally.  Bush lost by 4 when he won by 2 nationally.

There's no trend in favor of the GOP. The only thing they've done recently is knock out their Republican Governor and Senator.

A state that was four points more liberal than the rest of the nation can easily go to Republicans. We don't know what the circumstances will be in 2016, but a five point Republican win isn't outside the realm of possibility. Obama has consistently flipped several states Kerry and Gore by 4-6 points.

[Mister Mets]

New Jersey is not going red in 2016, Christie's approvals there are way down and doubtful he can beat Hillary. A lot of Republicans are overconfident about 2016, Obama in the mid 40s probably will not sink Hillary. Hillary had led Jeb and Rubio in every single Florida poll and the electorate there will only be around 64% white in 2016.

New Jersey's probably not going for Republicans.

Although Obama's approval rating has generally been a bit worse than Mid-40s. The RCP average is 41.1 percent, with three recent polls showing him at 39 percent (although one Rasmussen poll did him at 47 percent, an improvement over other polls.) That would be a slightly different scenario for the next Democratic nominee.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html