Canada 2008: Official Thread

[MaxQue]

This is awful. Harper will be in my hometown tomorrow. I'm ashamed than he will dirty my town and the place where I had my grad party by his presence.

I hope than the mayor will lose for endorsing Harper, by the way.

[MaxQue]

Nanos Canada

CPC: 36 (0)
LPC: 26 (-1)
NDP: 20 (+1)
BQ: 9 (0)
GPC: 9 (0)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 39 (+1)
CPC: 22 (-2)
LPC: 20 (-1)
NDP: 11 (+1)
GPC: 8 (+1)

EKOS Canada

CPC: 34 (-1)
LPC: 26 (+1)
NDP: 20 (0)
GPC: 10 (0)
BQ: 10 (0)

EKOS Quebec

BQ: 38 (-2)
CPC: 22 (+1)
LPC: 18 (+1)
NDP: 14 (-1)
GPC: 8 (+1)

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 36 (0)
LPC: 26 (+1)
NDP: 19 (0)
GPC: 9 (0)
BQ: 8 (-1)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 35 (-2)
CPC: 25 (-1)
LPC: 21 (+1)
NDP: 13 (+1)
GPC: 5 (+1)

[MaxQue]

Nanos Canada

CPC: 37 (+1)
LPC: 26 (0)
NDP: 20 (0)
BQ: 10 (+1)
GPC: 8 (-1)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 39 (0)
CPC: 26 (+4)
LPC: 18 (-2)
NDP: 12 (+1)
GPC: 5 (-3)

EKOS Canada

CPC: 34 (0)
LPC: 27 (+1)
NDP: 19 (-1)
GPC: 10 (0)
BQ: 9 (-1)

EKOS Quebec

BQ: 37 (-1)
CPC: 21 (-1)
LPC: 19 (+1)
NDP: 16 (+2)
GPC: 7 (-1)

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 36 (0)
LPC: 26 (0)
NDP: 18 (-1)
GPC: 11 (+2)
BQ: 9 (+1)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 37 (+2)
CPC: 27 (+2)
LPC: 18 (-3)
NDP: 12 (-1)
GPC: 5 (0)

Nanos Atlantic Canada

CPC: 33
NDP: 31
LPC: 30
GPC: 7

Very tight.

[MaxQue]

Wow @ Atlantic #'s. The NDP must be killing in Nova Scotia.

And St John's

[MaxQue]

Nanos Canada

CPC: 37 (+1)
LPC: 26 (0)
NDP: 19 (-1)
BQ: 10 (0)
GPC: 8 (-1)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 42 (+1)
CPC: 24 (-2)
LPC: 17 (+2)
NDP: 12 (-1)
GPC: 5 (-1)

EKOS Canada

CPC: 34 (0)
LPC: 25 (0)
NDP: 19 (-1)
GPC: 11 (0)
BQ: 10 (0)

EKOS Quebec

BQ: 40 (0)
CPC: 21 (+1)
LPC: 19 (0)
NDP: 13 (-1)
GPC: 8 (0)

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 36 (0)
LPC: 23 (-3)
NDP: 18 (0)
GPC: 12 (+1)
BQ: 9 (0)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 37 (0)
CPC: 27 (0)
LPC: 17 (-1)
NDP: 11 (-1)
GPC: 6 (+1)

[MaxQue]

I don't know what is the more lol, Democratic Space, who is usually better than that, or Joel Bernard. By the way the campaign of Mark Canada, the liberal candidate in my riding, Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou, has take a blow. He has a criminal record because he stroke two teens who stealed him an easel.

Nanos Canada

CPC: 35 (-2)
LPC: 30 (+4)
NDP: 18 (-1)
BQ: 10 (0)
GPC: 9 (+1)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 39 (-3)
LPC: 24 (+7)
CPC: 20 (-4)
NDP: 11 (-1)
GPC: 7 (+2)

EKOS Canada

CPC: 36 (+2)
LPC: 24 (-1)
NDP: 19 (0)
GPC: 11 (0)
BQ: 10 (0)

EKOS Quebec

BQ: 40 (0)
CPC: 20 (-1)
LPC: 20 (+1)
NDP: 12 (-1)
GPC: 7 (-1)

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 37 (+1)
LPC: 22 (-1)
NDP: 18 (0)
GPC: 12 (0)
BQ: 9 (0)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 38 (+1)
CPC: 27 (0)
LPC: 17 (0)
NDP: 11 (0)
GPC: 5 (-1)

I have big doubts on Nanos.

[MaxQue]

To complete Earl's post, results of the same poll for Avalon and St. John's South-Mount Pearl:

St. John's South-Mount Pearl:

Siobhan Coady (Lib): 29.1%
Ryan Cleary (NDP): 19.5%
Merv Wiseman (Cons): 11.6%
Others: 1.3%
Undecided: 38.5%

Avalon:

Fabian Manning (Cons): 25.1%
Scott Andrews (Lib): 21.6%
Randy Dawe (NDP): 12.6%
Undecided: 39.9%

[MaxQue]

To continue with riding polls: (Segma Unimarketing)

Gaspésie--Îles-de-la-Madeleine:
Raynald Blais (BQ): 44
Darryl Gray (CPC): 23
Denis Gauvreau (LPC): 21
Gaston Langlais (NDP): 7
Julien Lebalnc (GPC): 5

Louis-Hébert:
Luc Harvey (CPC): 30
Pascal-Pierre Paillé (BQ): 28
Jean Beaupré (LPC): 13
Denis Blanchette (NDP): 9
Michelle Fontaine (GPC): 6
Stefan Jetchick (CHP): 1

Quebec (the riding):
Christiane Gagnon (BQ): 37
Myriam Taschereau (CPC): 21
Damien Rousseau (LPC): 9
Catherine Roy-Goyette (NDP): 9
Yonnel Bonaventure (GPC): 7

Montmorency—Charlevoix—Haute-Côte-Nord:
Michel Guimond (BQ): 45
Guy-Léonard Tremblay (CPC): 23
Robert Gauthier (LPC): 7
Jonathan Tremblay (NDP): 4
Jacques Legros (GPC): 2

Jeanne-Le-Ber :
Thierry Saint-Cyr (BQ): 28
Christian Feuillette (LPC): 23
Daniel Breton (NDP): 15
Daniel Beaudin (CPC): 11
Véronik Sansoucy (GPC): 6

Papineau :
Justin Trudeau (LPC) : 32
Vivian Barbeau (BQ) : 27
Costa Zarifopoulos (NDP) : 10
Mustaque Sarker (CPC) : 6
Ingrid Hein (GPC) : 6

Rivière-des-Mille-Îles :
Luc Desnoyers (BQ) : 32
Claude Carignan (CPC) : 24
Denis Joannette (LPC) : 12
Normand Beaudet (NDP) : 7
Marie-Martine Bédard (GPC) : 4

Vaudreuil-Soulanges :
Meili Faille (BQ) : 39
Michael Fortier (the senator) (CPC) : 17
Brigitte Legault (LPC) : 12
Maxime Héroux-Legault (NDP) : 7
Jean-Yves Massenet (GPC) : 4

[MaxQue]

Tracking Polls. It seems than Ekos and Harris-Decima don't have polls today.

Nanos Canada

CPC: 35 (0)
LPC: 28 (-2)
NDP: 19 (+1)
BQ: 10 (0)
GPC: 8 (-1)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 40 (+1)
LPC: 26 (+2)
CPC: 17 (-3)
NDP: 9 (-2)
GPC: 8 (+1)

Conservatives seems to be in free fall in Quebec.

[MaxQue]

46.28%. He lost in 1988 with 35.3% against the PC with 44.13%

[MaxQue]

Yesterday Harris-Decima poll, who is late because another should be published later today.

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 35 (-2)
LPC: 22 (0)
NDP: 20 (+2)
GPC: 13 (+1)
BQ: 9 (0)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 37 (-1)
CPC: 22 (-5)
LPC: 17 (0)
NDP: 13 (+2)
GPC: 8 (+3)

[MaxQue]

Nanos Canada

CPC: 34 (-2)
LPC: 30 (+2)
NDP: 19 (0)
BQ: 10 (0)
GPC: 7 (-1)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 41 (+1)
LPC: 28 (+2)
CPC: 16 (-1)
NDP: 10 (+2)
GPC: 6 (-2)

Harris-Decima of the day according to Canoe

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 34 (-1)
LPC: 24 (+2)
NDP: 20 (0)
GPC: 13 (0)
BQ: 8 (-1)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 33 (-4)
LPC: 22 (+5)
CPC: 21 (-1)
NDP: 12 (-1)
GPC: 9 (+1)

[MaxQue]

Nanos Canada

CPC: 34 (0)
LPC: 29 (-1)
NDP: 20 (+1)
BQ: 11 (+1)
GPC: 6 (-1)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 44 (+3)
LPC: 23 (-5)
CPC: 18 (+2)
NDP: 10 (0)
GPC: 5 (-1)

EKOS Canada

CPC: 35 (-1)
LPC: 25 (+1)
NDP: 19 (0)
GPC: 10 (-1)
BQ: 10 (0)

EKOS Quebec

BQ: 43 (+3)
CPC: 21 (+1)
LPC: 19 (-1)
NDP: 13 (+1)
GPC: 5 (-2)

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 32 (-2)
LPC: 25 (+1)
NDP: 21 (+1)
GPC: 12 (-1)
BQ: 8 (0)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 33 (0)
LPC: 27 (+5)
CPC: 18 (-3)
NDP: 12 (0)
GPC: 8 (-1)

[MaxQue]

Good summary, Hashemite. Nanos' Greens numbers in Quebec are probably wacky. I don't think than they are this low.

Nanos Canada

CPC: 34 (0)
LPC: 31 (+2)
NDP: 18 (-2)
BQ: 11 (0)
GPC: 6 (0)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 46 (+2)
LPC: 22 (-1)
CPC: 20 (+2)
NDP: 11 (+1)
GPC: 2 (-3)

EKOS Canada

CPC: 33 (-2)
LPC: 26 (+1)
NDP: 19 (0)
GPC: 12 (+2)
BQ: 10 (0)

EKOS Quebec

BQ: 42 (-1)
LPC: 21 (-2
CPC: 17 (-4)
NDP: 15 (+2)
GPC: 5 (0)

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 31 (-1)
LPC: 26 (+1)
NDP: 21 (0)
GPC: 13 (+1)
BQ: 8 (0)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 33 (0)
LPC: 28 (+1)
CPC: 19 (+1)
NDP: 12 (0)
GPC: 8 (0)

[MaxQue]

Ekos seems to disagreeing with other pollsters.

Nanos Canada

CPC: 33 (-1)
LPC: 29 (-2)
NDP: 20 (+2)
BQ: 11 (0)
GPC: 7 (+1)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 45 (-1)
LPC: 21 (-1)
CPC: 20 (0)
NDP: 13 (+2)
GPC: 2 (0)

EKOS Canada

CPC: 34 (+1)
LPC: 25 (-1)
NDP: 20 (+1)
GPC: 11 (-1)
BQ: 10 (0)

EKOS Quebec

BQ: 40 (-2)
LPC: 21 (0)
CPC: 17 (0)
NDP: 15 (0)
GPC: 7 (+2)

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 31 (0)
LPC: 27 (+1)
NDP: 20 (-1)
GPC: 12 (-1)
BQ: 8 (0)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 36 (+3)
LPC: 28 (0)
CPC: 21 (+2)
NDP: 10 (-2)
GPC: 5 (-3)

[MaxQue]

Nanos Canada

CPC: 33 (0)
LPC: 29 (0)
NDP: 20 (0)
BQ: 10 (-1)
GPC: 7 (0)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 42 (-3)
LPC: 19 (-2)
CPC: 19 (-1)
NDP: 17 (+4)
GPC: 3 (+1)

EKOS Canada

CPC: 35 (+1)
LPC: 24 (-1)
NDP: 20 (0)
GPC: 11 (0)
BQ: 10 (0)

EKOS Quebec

BQ: 41 (+1)
LPC: 21 (0)
CPC: 17 (0)
NDP: 15 (0)
GPC: 6 (-1)

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 32 (+1)
LPC: 27 (0)
NDP: 19 (-1)
GPC: 12 (-1)
BQ: 8 (0)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 36 (0)
LPC: 29 (+1)
CPC: 22 (+1)
NDP: 8 (-2)
GPC: 4 (-1)

[MaxQue]

Nanos Canada

CPC: 33 (0)
LPC: 27 (-2)
NDP: 22 (+2)
BQ: 10 (0)
GPC: 8 (+1)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 42 (0)
LPC: 19 (0)
NDP: 19 (+2)
CPC: 16 (-3)
GPC: 4 (+1)

EKOS Canada

CPC: 36 (+1)
LPC: 24 (0)
NDP: 19 (-1)
GPC: 11 (0)
BQ: 10 (0)

EKOS Quebec

BQ: 41 (0)
LPC: 20 (-1)
CPC: 18 (+1)
NDP: 14 (-1)
GPC: 8 (+2)

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 34 (+2)
LPC: 26 (-1)
NDP: 18 (-1)
GPC: 12 (0)
BQ: 9 (+1)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 40 (+4)
CPC: 24 (+2)
LPC: 22 (-7)
NDP: 7 (-1)
GPC: 5 (+1)

[MaxQue]

Nanos Canada

CPC: 32 (-1)
LPC: 28 (+1)
NDP: 22 (0)
BQ: 10 (0)
GPC: 8 (0)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 42 (0)
LPC: 20 (+1)
NDP: 17 (-2)
CPC: 16 (0)
GPC: 5 (+1)

EKOS Canada

CPC: 34 (-2)
LPC: 26 (+2)
NDP: 19 (0)
GPC: 11 (0)
BQ: 10 (0)

EKOS Quebec

BQ: 40 (-1)
CPC: 20 (+2)
LPC: 19 (-1)
NDP: 14 (0)
GPC: 6 (-2)

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 35 (+1)
LPC: 25 (-1)
NDP: 18 (0)
GPC: 11(-1)
BQ: 9 (0)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 41 (+1)
CPC: 23 (-1)
LPC: 21 (-1)
NDP: 8 (+1)
GPC: 5 (0)

[MaxQue]

The Boundary Commission did that?

Yes, because they were afraid to break the historical boundaries. The boundaries are like that since 1966.

[MaxQue]

Nanos Canada

CPC: 33 (+1)
LPC: 27 (-1)
NDP: 22 (0)
BQ: 10 (0)
GPC: 9 (+1)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 42 (0)
LPC: 21 (+1)
CPC: 16 (0)
NDP: 15 (-2)
GPC: 6 (+1)

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 35 (0)
LPC: 26 (+1)
NDP: 18 (0)
GPC: 10 (-1)
BQ: 9 (0)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 43 (+2)
PLC: 23 (+2)
CPC: 19 (-4)
NDP: 9 (+1)
GPC: 4 (-1)

[MaxQue]

Last polls of elections, elections tomorrow.

Nanos later today

EKOS Canada

CPC: 34 (0)
LPC: 26 (0)
NDP: 18 (-1)
GPC: 11 (0)
BQ: 10 (0)

EKOS Quebec

BQ: 41 (+1)
CPC: 24 (+4)
LPC: 17 (-2)
NDP: 12 (-2)
GPC: 5 (-1)

Harris-Decima Canada

CPC: 34 (-1)
LPC: 25 (-1)
NDP: 19 (+1)
BQ: 11 (+2)
GPC: 9 (-1)

Harris-Decima Quebec

BQ: 46 (+3)
PLC: 18 (-5)
CPC: 17 (-2)
NDP: 12 (+3)
GPC: 5 (+1)

[MaxQue]

Nanos Canada

CPC: 34 (+1)
LPC: 27 (0)
NDP: 21 (+1)
BQ: 10 (0)
GPC: 8 (-1)

Nanos Quebec

BQ: 40 (-2)
LPC: 22 (+1)
CPC: 19 (+3)
NDP: 13 (-2)
GPC: 6 (0)

[MaxQue]

Cons: 121
Libs: 90
BQ: 55
NDP: 40
Ind: 2

[MaxQue]

- Papineau's not staying with the bloc.

Trudeau is way overrated. In fact, Papineau is too close to call. I had to choose. You could ask to Earl, he had the same thing than me.

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Conservatives fell very hard in Quebec's polls. Those seats were won by less than 1000 votes. You could ask to Earl, he had the same thing than me.

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No, the electoral card is too gerrymandered. You could ask to Earl, he had the same thing than me.

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Kenora will be three-way result. Anybody could win. I had to choose. Since the polling is very high for the NDP in Ontario...

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Avalon is too close to call. A NTV poll says than Conservative will win by 5%. You could ask to Earl, he had the same thing than me.

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Probably. The result will be very tight. You could ask to Earl, he had the same thing than me.

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No. That would be good to throw McKay out but no, that will not happen. The chance is 1/5, I think.

For Nunavut. Too close to call and too based on candidates for a good analysis. The conservative is the Health minister and the green is an ex-MP. For Roberval, you could ask to Earl, he had the same thing than me. This is a too close to call riding, I had to choose.

[MaxQue]

I hope you're right. I honestly hadn't paid any attention to the North so this is all news to me.

I didn't express it well, but I do expect the Liberals to hold Guelph with the Greens not significantly affecting their victory margin. The NDP and Tories won't factor in much at all, most likley.

And Max, while I like Earl and respect his opinions, merely stating that the two of you agree on something is not really evidence or argumentation:P

I know. But I shouldn't be the only person who is questioned?