GA-06 and SC-05 election day & results thread

[Roronoa D. Law]

Does anyone know if ossoff is going to have a surplus of cash at the end? And if he does what would he do with it? Run again?

No matter who wins, they will have an insane amount of cash leftover at the end. This will probably make the seat less then competitive in 2018 as all the credible opposition is deterred by the warchest. This is similar to Fl-18 in 2014, where Murphy's huge cash pile from 2012 put off credible Republican challengers.

I'm not sure what Handel does with her money in the event of defeat, but Ossoff probably sits on his cash for a future race - he is young after all.

I would hope he runs again if he looses. If Handel wins its probably because Republicans still giving Trump a chance. Atleast by 2018 he be married, live in the district, and more time for people to have an opinion about Trump. Handel is no way safe if she wins the 2012-2016 swing was huge plus Atlanta Metro adds about 90k a year and the only people who can afford to live off 400 are people from more expensive liberal cities.   

[Roronoa D. Law]

True, but my concern is that many of my friends for example (especially those who were anti-Hillary or reluctantly Hillary) will take a losing result as a sign that the DNC has permanently and irreparably failed.

Probably. Whenever I talk to people about this offline I tend to mention that it is a district that isn't even supposed to be competitive, and is only having a special election now because Trump's team thought it would be filled by another Republican due to its previous voting behavior.

The fact that Democrats have made this district a toss-up should be cause for celebration on its own imo. Further, despite the huge price tag, which is troubling, it has also shown that while money does help, esp the further downballot you go, it really can't just buy a district that is not favorable to your party. Candidates and partisan leanings still matter.

He needs to find a way to win.

It also goes with this narrative--Democrats can't get nice things.

Think about the Scott Brown election in MA for example. I wasn't even old enough to vote yet in 2010 but I still remember the sting of Coakley losing to Brown. If I recall correctly, Brown did not even squeak by. He won solidly by like 5 points ~100,000 votes. That's a 17 point swing from a state that had a D+12 PVI in 2010. Many of us are waiting for Trump to have that embarrassing moment. I think, pretty objectively, even among many Republicans I know (incl. Trump supporters), no one deserves a humbling moment more than Trump does.

Republican are better at turning out plus Democrats are not as partisan compared to Republican and more likely to do 3rd party protest vote. You hear Democrats all the time say they could see themselves voting for Kasich or Collins you never hear that from Republicans. If Jim Webb some how had won the nomination he wouldn't have did any better than HRC with GOP votes. Its the DNC problem to find out why. Jon Ossoff has run a perfect campaign so far compared to Handel.

[Roronoa D. Law]

16,500 votes in Fulton County by 12:30. They are expecting 36,000 today.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TopAtlantaNow/status/877243954001047556

36K in Fulton, which has over half the district's voters, doesn't seem like that much.  Wasn't overall Election Day turnout expected to be in the 100K neighborhood?

I could be totally wrong, but this seems like bad news for Handel. She needs a robust Election Day turnout.

Let me correct myself here...actually Fulton doesn't have quite half of the registered voters in the district.  It's Fulton 48%, Cobb 29%, DeKalb 23%.  And in the first round, the distribution of votes was Fulton 45%, Cobb 32%, DeKalb 23%.  However, in the early vote Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26%, Dekalb 21%.  So the trend then was for Fulton to have less of an Election Day turnout (relative to early vote) than the other two counties.  If that trend continues, then maybe today's turnout will be something close to 100K after all.

And that would benefit whom and how much?

It's expected that Ossoff will lead in the EV and Handel will lead in today's voting.  So in theory, a lower turnout today should benefit Ossoff.  How much?  Good question.

Where also matter if Cobb voter share is lower than last time that not good for Handel Fulton is a wild card right now.

[Roronoa D. Law]

13,787 votes in DeKalb as of 3:00, about 1,000 less than R1
https://mobile.twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/877262286053941250

But with nearly three hours left. They will most likely exceed that especially in the last couple of hours when people leave work.

dekalb county democrats, for the most part, either don't work or work at jobs like wendy's and raising cane's where they can't get off from work to vote

Sorry no the GA-400 Corridor is our version of the Collar/WOW counties. You can't buy a new home in this district less than 500k. Brookhaven and Dunwoody are not poor or working class by any means.   

[Roronoa D. Law]

Any of our resident experts on GA-06 know which areas tend to report votes earlier/later?

Also, do they tend to dump EVs separately at the very beginning or include with individual precinct results as a consolidated total?

EV should be first followed by ED. Since most machines report to the county election office it should be Cobb, Dekalb, Fulton in that order. I should warn people that Ossoff Friendly precincts may turn in first do to proximity. This probably why it took so long for him to finally drop 50% in April primary.

[Roronoa D. Law]

lol cnn says it would be a stunning surprise if ossoff wins.

They have been painting it as a stunning upset for Ossoff if he wins for their entire coverage

they're idiots.

Let just remember the "Daily Kos" made this election a thing.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Massive swing to the Democrats in SC 05. That's pretty amazing.

...yet this race received little to zero attention.

If they did it will be GA-06 redux

[Roronoa D. Law]

Democrats have a branding problem at this point. Pelosi need to retire and take one for the team.

[Roronoa D. Law]

About this whole 'chuck Pelosi to the curb' thing, you people do realise any other house leader would be just as demonised and hated by Republicans as Pelosi is?

Hard for republican run an ad with Tim Ryan when nobody knows who he is yet. What they going label him as Youngstown liberal or working class pimp

[Roronoa D. Law]

Handel winning will also allow Republican to take more of a political risk. But remember in GA-06 is a southern suburban district. If Republican are close to loosing suburbs in the south well that explains itself.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Pass what legislation...the Dems havent been able to pass anything since 2010

Yeah after they lost control of the House. Don't be a 5 year old.

And they lost the house because of Nancy Pelosi

Pelosi needs to step aside and train a new guy her so called parliamentary genius then

lol, how was it Pelosi fault?

Because shes red meat for the GOP base. Nothing gets the geezers out of the mobile home park and to the voting booth than sticking Pelosi's face on an attack ad

These people would give up SS and Medicare to get Pelosi out of office

lol, they lost their majority because of the ACA and Obama backlash.

Serously, stop trying to revise history.

Pelosi:

Disliked by 100% of Republicans, 75% of independents, and 50% of Democrats

Hey, let's keep her on because she knows like parliamentary stuffs

Lets force Hoyer and Clyburn to retire while you at. Why is all three leader for the Dem over 75.

[Roronoa D. Law]

You might gain some that way, but you might also lose some.  I know some GA-6 voters who were attracted by his attempt to run a civil campaign, especially after all the negativity last year.

And we see how much that counted for.

It's time for Democrats to embrace GOP-style tactics of personal destruction. Stop being a bunch of pussies and do what it takes to win. The Obama 2012 campaign was a step in the right direction.

Yes Democrats need to go full Fox news in 2018. Make stuff up about the canidate in an ad and give a low profile apology.

[Roronoa D. Law]

GA-06 could be VA-10 in a few cycles.

[Roronoa D. Law]

When is Pelosi ever going to be held accountable 2010..2012..2014..2016..2018? Why are House Dems ok with this?

Didnt you hear? The geniuses over at the DNC are hiring Rham Emanuel to coordinate the 2018 mid-terms. He's going to brush the dust off the 90s DLC playbook and bring back the Clinton days! Sure it hasn't worked in nearly 20 years but dont worry ...any day now!

I don't think putting up ultra-liberal Sandernistas will do it

Tell it Jeremy Corbyn

The Dems have been running centrist trash all my life. It dosen't work and it never will. The GOP keeps pushing further and further right and they only win more. It's time for Dems to get a ing clue and chuck Pelosi, Hoyer, Perez, Schumer, et all to the side

When Corbyn overcame the media and half of his party slandering him as a radical, and gave Labour their first glimpse at the Prime Minister's seat in years, I was excited because finally the No Labels, "America is a center-right country" hacks would finally wake up. Instead they completely ignored it.

F**k the Democratic Party forever.

America is different than Britain. Some of Corbyn's policies I agree with but I don't like far-left Marxism nor right-wing fascism.

A campaign on Far left politics and socialism can't be run in the US because of welfare chauvinism plus black people exist in this country.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I have a feeling 2018 is going to have the largest turnout for a midterm in modern history. Maybe 45%

[Roronoa D. Law]

I find it funny that Trump and Republican are celebrating about winning in Kansas, Montana, South Carolina, and Georgia.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I find it funny that Trump and Republican are celebrating about winning in Kansas, Montana, South Carolina, and Georgia.

Still celebrating winning in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, etc.

Things look very good for yall right now, I can see it and I admit it. But a piece of friendly advice, don't get too cocky, just trust me and all the other liberals feeding you our tears now, you don't want to end up like us.

I acknowledge the fact that these special elections are sending mixed signals about 2018 midterms. Though Democratic candidates are making these elections very close, they can't quite make it to the finish line.

This is why I don't see the Democrats taking the House back in 2018 unless we're in the middle of a recession. Yes, Democrats clearly have more enthusiasm and they'll net gain 10-20 seat but that'll only get them so far.

I always thought that it was harder for Rep to vote for Dem than a Dem voting for a Rep.

[Roronoa D. Law]

This is bullsh*t. Democrats should start running undercover liberals acting like Stephen Colbert's character as Republican candidates from now on. We'd probably do better at this point.