Locals 2008 (with the moderator's permission of course)

[Harry Hayfield]

shows the composition of Ceredigion Council as of the elections in 2004. Ceredigion is one of the few Welsh councils (so far) not to have a single by-election since it's election in 2004 (which suggests that the golden goodbye worked in 2004). The composition is:

Ind 16 Plaid 16 Lib Dem 9 Lab 1

and there is a multi party anti Plaid coalition in place controlling the council.

[Verily]

Who is likely to make gains, the anti-Plaid or Plaid groups? Do the Conservatives stand a chance of winning a seat? Can Labour hold on to their last outpost?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Do the Conservatives stand a chance of winning a seat?

No; they don't even run candidates in Ceredigion.

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The Labour counciller in Lampeter has a very large personal vote.

[Јas]

Is there any particular cause or anything which links the Independents? If not, why so many?

[minionofmidas]

I want an Aberystwyth-in-detail inset map! And a Cardigan one as well I suppose.

[Harry Hayfield]

Who is likely to make gains, the anti-Plaid or Plaid groups? Do the Conservatives stand a chance of winning a seat? Can Labour hold on to their last outpost?

I should point out that of the councillors elected, they break down like this:

Plaid Cymru fielded 36 candidates and won 16 councillors (3 elected unopposed)
Independents fielded 24 candidates and won 16 councillors (1 elected unopposed)
Liberal Democrats fielded 20 candidates and won 9 councillors (1 elected unopposed)
Labour fielded 1 candidate and won 1 councillor
Conservatives fielded 1 candidate and won 0 councillors
Llais Ceredigion fielded 6 candidates and won 0 councillors

[Harry Hayfield]

Is there any particular cause or anything which links the Independents? If not, why so many?

I have no idea, but should point out the following:

Powys: 53 Independents (Ind win)
Pembrokeshire: 40 Independents (Ind win)
Carmarthenshire: 32 Independents (NOC)
Ynys Môn: 28 Independents (Ind win)
Denbighshire: 23 Independents (NOC)
Wrexham: 20 Independents (NOC)
Flintshire: 18 Independents (Lab)
Gwynedd: 17 Independents (PC)
Merthyr Tydfil: 16 Independents (Lab)
Ceredigion: 16 Independents (NOC)
Swansea: 12 Independents (NOC)
Bridgend: 10 Independents (NOC)

All other councils less than 10 Independents. Just like in Scotland, Wales is the home of the Independent.

[Harry Hayfield]

I want an Aberystwyth-in-detail inset map! And a Cardigan one as well I suppose.

Could be a struggle, but I'll try my best.

[Hash]

What's Llais Ceredigion

[Harry Hayfield]

What's Llais Ceredigion

Llais Ceredigion (which translates as Ceredigion's Voice) were an single issue party who contested the locals but whose main aim was to ensure a YES vote in a mayoral referendum in May 2004. The result of the vote was YES 27% NO 73% (and ensured that Llais were doomed to failure). In the seats that Llais contested they polled 21% of the vote (and it is generally assumed they took that support from Plaid Cymru).

[Hash]

What was the referendum, out of curiosity?

[Harry Hayfield]

What was the referendum, out of curiosity?

Do you support the proposal for a directly elected mayor for Ceredigion County Council? (in other words like the ditrectly elected mayors in London, Watford, Hackney).

YES 5,308 votes
NO 14,013 votes
Turnout: 36.32%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there any particular cause or anything which links the Independents? If not, why so many?

Not as far as I know (beyond the usual enthusiasm for pork barreling). Rural Wales is just like that.