German state and local elections, September 2006

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ah, finally I got a excuse to start another topic about German politics.   Next month we will hold three state-wide elections here...


September 10: Local elections in Lower Saxony

September 17: State/local elections in Berlin

September 17: State elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania


Because its the capital, Berlin will clearly be the most interesting and most important of the three contests. Berlin has a city/state-wide legislature, called Abgeordnetenhaus (which simply means "House of Representatives" ). In addition, Berlin is divided into 12 boroughs, each with its own elected legislature, the Bezirksverordnetenversammlung (borough assembly). The elections to the House and the borough assemblies are tradtionally held on the same day.

Coincidentally, Berlin and Mecklenburg are also the two German states which are currently governed by a SPD/Left Party coalition. Probably not so coincidentally, Berlin and Mecklenburg are also the two states where the local WASG chapters are vehemently opposed to the proposed merger between their party and the Left Party.PDS. As a result, the WASG is running with its own tickets in both states. The WASG chapters of Berlin and Mecklenburg are considered rogues by the federal WASG.




Lower Saxony


Results of the last election (09/09/2001)

CDU: 42.6%
SPD: 38.6%
Greens: 6.7%
FDP: 6.2%
PDS: 0.6%

Turnout: 56.2%
Map: http://www.election.de/img/maps/kw_ns01.gif




Berlin


Results of the last house election (10/21/2001)

SPD: 29.7% / 44 seats
CDU: 23.8% / 35 seats
PDS: 22.6% / 33 seats
FDP: 9.9% / 15 seats
Greens: 9.1% / 14 seats

Turnout: 68.2%
Map: http://www.election.de/img/maps/ahw01wk.gif


Results of the last borough election (10/21/2001)

SPD: 30.9%
CDU: 26.9%
PDS: 19.6%
Greens: 10.2%
FDP: 7.5%

Turnout: 66.9%
Map: http://www.election.de/img/maps/ahw01bvv.gif


Latest polls

Forsa (07/26/2006)
SPD: 30%
CDU: 21%
Left.PDS: 17%
Greens: 16%
FDP: 10%

Infratest dimap (08/03/2006)
SPD: 35%
CDU: 23%
Left.PDS: 15%
Greens: 13%
FDP: 8%

Emnid (08/06/2006)
SPD: 32%
CDU: 22%
Left.PDS: 15%
Greens: 14%
FDP: 9%
WASG: 5%

Despite the bad numbers for the CDU, its also possible that the SPD/Left Party coalition is going to lose its majority. In the case that this happens, speculations about the compostion of the future government include a SPD/Left Party/Green coalition, a Grand coalition, or even a CDU/FDP/Green (currently the three parties making up the opposition) coalition.




Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania


Results of the last election (09/22/2002)

SPD: 40.6% / 33 seats
CDU: 31.4% / 25 seats
PDS: 16.4% / 13 seats
FDP: 4.7% / 0 seats
Greens: 2.6% / 0 seats

Turnout: 70.6%
Map: http://www.election.de/img/maps/mv02e.gif


Latest polls

Emnid (07/24/2006)
CDU: 33%
SPD: 31%
Left.PDS: 21%
FDP: 7%
Greens: 4%

Infratest dimap (08/03/2006)
CDU: 33%
SPD: 29%
Left.PDS: 22%
FDP: 6%
Greens: 4%
NPD: 4%

Opinion polls may show the CDU in the lead, but SPD + Left Party are still holding a slim majority.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The WASG chapters of Berlin and Mecklenburg are considered rogues by the federal WASG.

Something like the CDU and the CSU in Bavaria What is the treshold for being in the house in Berlin ? 4% or 5% ? If it´s 5%, then the WASG has to battle. MVP is also interesting to watch. What´s the treshold there ? I hope the Nazis (NPD) stay out of the state parliament, currently polling at 4%.

Threshold is 5% for federal and state elections everywhere in Germany.

Local elections are a different case. In Lower Saxony they don't have any threshold, for example.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ah, and finally I got a excuse to behave like a chauvinist....


Here's perhaps something for BRTD's "hot communist rebel" collection.



That's Lucy Redler, the leader of the WASG in Berlin.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I wonder if the SPD will be able to regain control of Lower Saxony. Is Sigmar Gabriel running again? Something tells me the SPD are grooming him for the office of Parteivorsitzender...

That's a local election in Lower Saxony. Someone like Sigmar Gabriel isn't running for a town council seat.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New poll for Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (Emnid, 08/12):

CDU 31%
SPD 29%
Left.PDS 22%
FDP 7%
Greens 4%
WASG 3%
NPD 3%

[Middle-aged Europe]

New poll for Berlin (Forsa, 08/19):

SPD 32%
CDU 21%
Left.PDS 16%
Greens 14%
FDP 10%
Other parties 7%

[Middle-aged Europe]

New poll for Berlin (Forsa, 08/19):

SPD 32%
CDU 21%
Left.PDS 16%
Greens 14%
FDP 10%
Other parties 7%

Looks like Red-Red-Green coalition to me. Is that the current power structure in Berlin already?

As far as i know, there´s a SPD-Left Party-Coalition in Berlin right now.

That's correct.

And other options aside from a SPD/Left.PDS/Green coalition (more or less in the order of its likelihood) would a be Grand coalition, a SPD/Green/FDP coalition, or a CDU/Green/FDP coalition.



A little political history of Berlin: From 1991 to 2001, Berlin was governed by a Grand coalition under Eberhard Diepgen (CDU). Then, the city government became involved in a major financial scandal, which left Berlin literally bankrupt. Although the SPD was probably not totally innocent either, it was mainly the fault of a a number of leading figures within the CDU.

As a result of the scandal, the coalition broke and through a motion of non-confidence in the Abgeordnetenhaus, a SPD/Green minority government led by Klaus Wowereit (SPD) was installed. Early elections were also called. Although the SPD clearly won the election, the SPD/Greens coalition failed to win a majority.

Then, talks about the formation of a coalition between SPD, Greens, and FDP began. However, after several weeks/months of negotiations, the talks failed and the city-state ended up a with a SPD/PDS coalition instead. Some people from the CDU and FDP claimed that this had been Wowereit's plan in the first place and that the talks between SPD, Greens, and FDP had only served as an alibi for him to form a coalition with the PDS in the end, but no one will ever be able to prove this. Plus, the SPD/Greens and the FDP weren't exactly best friends either and started those negotiations because they had not much choice.

Because of their involvement in the financial scandal, the motion of no-confidence and the subsequent defeat at the polls (1999 election: 40.8%; 2001 election: 23.8%), the CDU was never quite whole again. Since 2001, the party is mostly characterized by the bitter internal fights between different factions and the lack of any clear or strong leader. In fact, the CDU failed to find a convincing candidate to lead their campaign in the upcoming 2006 coalition. Instead they were forced to recruit someone from outside of Berlin: Friedbert Pflüger, currently a secretary of state in the German ministry of defence and Bundestag member representing a constituency in the state of Lower Saxony. In other words: The CDU in Berlin is f****d.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New poll for Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (Forsa, 08/23):

CDU 30%
SPD 28%
Left.PDS 24%
FDP 7%
Greens 4%
NPD 4%
Other parties 3%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Berlin poll (Infratest-dimap, 08/24):

SPD 32%
CDU 21%
Left.PDS 16%
Greens 16%
FDP 8%
Other parties 7%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Two new polls for Mecklenburg are out...


Infratest-dimap, 08/25
SPD 31%
CDU 30%
Left.PDS 23%
FDP 6%
NPD 4%
Greens 3%

Emnid, 08/25
CDU 31%
SPD 28%
Left.PDS 23%
FDP 7%
NPD 4%
Greens 3%
WASG 2%

The SPD takes the lead in a poll the first time since Feburary. Apparently, the FDP has good chances of returning to the state parliament after 12 years of absence. The NPD's chances of winning seats aren't that bad either.   However, the situation of the Greens and the WASG is more or less hopeless.

Btw, do you want to know what seems to be one of the major issues of the Mecklenberg campaign? "Who is going to pay Bush's barbecue???"
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is Angela Merkel's homestate and she invited Bush to visit her there back in July. Now, the state government of Mecklenburg is arguing with the federal government who is going to pay the bills for Bush's visit.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Berlin poll (Emnid, 08/27):

SPD 33%
CDU 21%
Left.PDS 16%
Greens 14%
FDP 9%
WASG 3%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Took this test a while ago. Retook it now... the results haven't change much, but I'm still not sure whether this makes sense.

1) SPD / FDP - 56.7% each
2) CDU - 48.3%
3) WASG - 46.7%
4) Left.PDS - 36.7%
5) Greens - 35%


But as Lewis indicated, you probably have to be an in-depth expert of the political and financial situation in Berlin to understand this test.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Mecklenburg poll (Infratest-dimap, 09/07):

SPD 31%
CDU 30%
Left.PDS 20%
FDP 7%
NPD 6%
Greens 4%


Looks like a very close race between SPD and CDU. The SPD will win though simply because of their stronger coalition partner. Actually, the only remaining chance of the CDU to win this thing is a very strong NPD result, which could prevent another SPD/PDS majority and lead to a Grand coalition... for the very high price of having the NPD sit in the state parliament.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Berlin poll (Infratest-dimap, 09/07):

SPD 33%
CDU 21%
Left.PDS 15%
Greens 14%
FDP 7%
WASG 3%

[Middle-aged Europe]

And here's a hell of a lot new poll data for both state elections...




Berlin (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 09/08)

SPD 32%
CDU 22%
Left.PDS 17%
Greens 13%
FDP 8%
Other parties 8%


Number of undecided voters: 46%

Who should become mayor?:
Klaus Wowereit (SPD) 64%
Friedbert Pflüger (CDU) 18%

Coalition preferences:
SPD/CDU 34%
SPD/Greens 33%
SPD/Left.PDS 24%




Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 09/08)

CDU 33%
SPD 29%
Left.PDS 18%
FDP 7%
NPD 7%
Greens 4%
Other parties 2%


Number of undecided voters: 43%

Who should become premier?:
Harald Ringstorff (SPD) 49%
Jürgen Seidel (CDU) 34%

Coalition preferences:
SPD/CDU 61%
SPD/Left.PDS 29%

[Middle-aged Europe]

And in Lower Saxony the local elections will be held this sunday.


The last state-wide poll in Lower Saxony showed the following numbers... it's actually a poll for the state parliament, but maybe also a indicator for the local elections (Infratest-dimap, 08/30):

CDU 40%
SPD 36%
Greens 9%
FDP 8%
Left.PDS 4%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Berlin (Forsa, 09/09)

SPD 31%
CDU 20%
Left.PDS 17%
Greens 14%
FDP 8%
Other parties 10%



Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (Emnid, 09/08)

CDU 31%
SPD 29%
Left.PDS 21%
FDP 7%
NPD 7%
Greens 3%
WASG 1%
Other parties 1%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Majority/coalition summary (incumbent coalition vs. opposition parties who will make it into the parliament):



Berlin

Infratest
SPD + Left.PDS = 48%
CDU + Greens + FDP = 42%

FGW
SPD + Left.PDS = 49%
CDU + Greens + FDP = 43%

Forsa
SPD + Left.PDS = 48%
CDU + Greens + FDP = 42%

Prediction: Looks like a almost certain re-election for Klaus Wowereit's SPD/PDS coalition.



Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania

Infratest
SPD + Left.PDS = 51%
CDU + FDP + NPD = 43%

Emnid
SPD + Left.PDS = 50%
CDU + FDP + NPD = 45%

FGW
SPD + Left.PDS = 47%
CDU + FDP + NPD = 47%

Prediction: Opinion polls favor the SPD/PDS coalition here too. However, FGW's projected tossup indicates that it could become a very close race in the final days of the campaign. It all depends on how strong the NPD will be. In the case that SPD+PDS will not win a majority again, a Grand coalition is to be expected.

Btw, a Grand coalition in Mecklenburg would result in a two-third majority for Angela Merkel's coalition in the Bundesrat (in the Bundestag they already have one). Not that it would matter much, since CDU and SPD can't agree on anything anyway. But they wouldn't have to ask the FDP anymore, if they're planning to amend the constitution in the future.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Those Easterns must like totalitarianism.

No, they just experienced 12 years under Nazism, 40 years under communism and 15 years under a democracy with very high unemployment rates of about 20%, which led many of them to the conclusion that democracy sucks and the past was better after all.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Does any of the Germans in here know if Stoiber is leaving before 2008 or after the elections ?

Uh, no idea. From my experience, those CSU people are pretty submissive guys, who bow down to their party's leadership at any opportunity.  So, if Stoiber wants to run again, they probably will let him. But I assume 2008 will be the last election he will run and then retire in the middle of the next term.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Damn, the Nazis at 7% ? Hopefully their campaign implodes and they won´t come into the state parliament.

7% is probably more the NPD's minimum than the NPD's maximum.

I was being facetious. I, of course, now that is the reason why NPD and PDS do so well in the East, just like how similar parties do well in the rest of Eastern Europe.

Being from the east myself, I have to say that I can't understand people who vote for them. Even if they're from East Germany, even if they were permanently unemployed for the last 15 years, even if they think that all other parties are horrible and even if they think that democracy sucks, they should notice that NPD consists of people who are not very intelligent.

They don't even look very intelligent. Everyone who has seen Holger Apfel (the NPD leader in Saxony) only a single time knows what I'm talking about. And their neither charismatic nor are they particularly articulate. This is often seen as the main reason why now right-wing extremist could establish itself on federal level after WWII: The lack of any charismatic or remotely intelligent leaders. The PDS has at least some pretty awesome speakers and debaters, who also know from their own experience how a university looks from the inside.

So, the only explanation is that NPD voters simply don't give a fu** about anything and are only trying to piss off the major parties by a protest vote. And in that case I would actually prefer that they beome really apathetic and stay home, instead of voting NPD.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Lower Saxony Results from the Community Elections yesterday:

CDU: 41,3% (-1,3%)
SPD: 36,6% (-2,0%)
Greens: 7,8% (+1,1%)
FDP: 6,7% (+0,5%)

Independent voter groups: 6.1% (+1.6%)
Left.PDS: 0.8% (+0.2%)
REP: 0.2% (-0.3%)
NPD: 0.2% (+0.1%)
WASG: 0.2% (+0.2%)

All other parties were below 0.1%.

Turnout: 51.8% (-4.4%)



Total number of seats won on county-level:
CDU 956 (-105)
SPD 872 (-97)
Greens 172 (+29)
FDP 163 (+21)
Independent groups 155 (+66)
Left.PDS 20 (+14)
REP 3 (+-0)
NPD 6 (+6)
WASG 3 (+3)
German Communist Party 1 (+1)
Animal Rights Party 1 (+1)


Despite the fact that the CDU was the strongest party state-wide, the SPD became the largest party in 24 of Lower Saxony's counties and independent cities, while the CDU finished first in 22 counties.

Map: http://www.election.de/img/maps/ns06k.gif

[Middle-aged Europe]

And another Berlin poll was released yesterday (Emnid, 09/10):

SPD 33%
CDU 22%
Left.PDS 15%
Greens 14%
FDP 9%
WASG 3%
Other parties 4%

SPD + Left.PDS = 48%
CDU + Greens + FDP = 45%

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to the head of the polling firm Forsa a double-digit result for the NPD in Mecklenburg might be possible.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Here we go... first projections are out.



BERLIN

ARD (6:00)
SPD: 31.0% / 50 seats
CDU: 21.5% / 35 seats
Left.PDS: 13.5% / 22 seats
Greens: 13.5% / 22 seats
FDP: 7.5% / 12 seats
Other parties: 13.0% / 0 seats
Turnout: 59.0%

ZDF (6:00)
SPD: 31.5% / 52 seats
CDU: 22.0% / 36 seats
Left.PDS: 13.5% / 22 seats
Greens: 13.5% / 22 seats
FDP: 8.0% / 13 seats
Other parties: 11.5% / 0 seats
Turnout: 59.5%

Both TV stations are projecting a very thin one-seat majority for SPD/Greens or SPD/Left.PDS respectively.