Trump 55%
Clinton 35%
Other 10%
Can't think of a single reason Trump would do better than Romney.
This is assuming a close/competitive race nationwide, which is a bold prediction right now. Clinton is also a much worse fit for AK than Obama. A Trump vs. Sanders race in the state would have been very interesting, though.
Clinton being a worse fit than Obama doesn't mean Trump will do better than Romney, especially with Johnson+Stein. The problem with your prediction is you think 100% of Romney voters and a few Obama voters will vote for Trump. Highly implausible imo.
