Oregon - OFFICIAL rumors and results thread

[Verily]

CNN just put the Wallowa numbers up and said 50% in, so I guess that wasn't a Sunderland-speed count there.

[Verily]

Obama leads in Union County 54-44, Clinton in Crook 52-46.

[Alcon]

New counties:

- Morrow (Heppner) is Clinton +23 - Major declining Dem area, so not a huge surprise
- Crook (Prineville) is a narrow-ish Clinton +6

I thought he'd do better in Union since there's a university there, but it's a small one I suppose.  I'm just glad they didn't take two days to report like in 2004

[NOVA Green]

Obama wins Wallowa County 56-40, which apparently has counted all of its ballots (pretty damn impressive if true).

Wallowa is Hells Canyon National Recreation area, heavy tourist / service sector / Green based local economy....

[Verily]

Obama wins Wallowa County 56-40, which apparently has counted all of its ballots (pretty damn impressive if true).

Wallowa is Hells Canyon National Recreation area, heavy tourist / service sector / Green based local economy....

I meant the vote counting speed was impressive, but apparently it wasn't.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Union County (NE OR) is in for Obama 54-46 with 42% in.

[Alcon]

Grant County, which actually was Kerry's biggest underperformance relative to the Dem % in the state by far, is Obama +28, which kind of blows my mind.  I'd have expected Clintonfest.

[Joe Biden 2020]

The count is 58-42 with 51% in.  Will the margin widen, shrink, or remain the same for the last half?

[Verily]

Shrink with the remaining counties (but not appreciably at this point as the remaining counties are very small) then widen as the late votes come in. Obama still has a shot at breaking 60%.

[WalterMitty]

just looking at the exit poll. 

sure are a lot of heathens in oregon.  33% never attend church.  wow.

it is kind of funny.  in many southern states, obama did best with those who attend church more than once a week.  obviously, those were blacks, who tend to be very godly. 

[Alcon]

The count is 58-42 with 51% in.  Will the margin widen, shrink, or remain the same for the last half?

It's actually 57-42 with 70% in (here).  Verily is right.  The slightly more pro-Clinton slant of the remaining counties should be virtually negated by the late ballots tilting Obama.

If they do, that is.  I don't see any indication that they did all that heavily so far, but the last two days' ballots probably aren't counted most places.

[Joe Biden 2020]

There are only 6 counties in the center portion of the state that hasn't reported anything, yet (according to CNN's map).

[Alcon]

Harney (another empty county) is 81% in as Clinton +2

[Lief 🗽]

Shrink with the remaining counties then widen as the late votes come in.

Why would the late vote favor Obama? Doesn't Clinton usually win late deciders?

Also, it's pretty interesting that Obama did better among union members than he among non-union members. I guess union endorsements do work.

[NOVA Green]

Grant County, which actually was Kerry's biggest underperformance relative to the Dem % in the state by far, is Obama +28, which kind of blows my mind.  I'd have expected Clintonfest.

Hard to read too much into some of these smaller rural counties...  many of the few Democrats in Grant Co. are probably public sector workers or tied into the tourist sector. Obama will probably do better than many Dems in the General, but I would still be surprised to see him top 45% against McCain.

[Verily]

Shrink with the remaining counties then widen as the late votes come in.

Why would the late vote favor Obama? Doesn't Clinton usually win late deciders?

Also, it's pretty interesting that Obama did better among union members than he among non-union members. I guess union endorsements do work.

Because it's not "late deciders" in the sense that exit polls ask. It's late voters. Which are always younger than the average voter. Oregon and Washington are pretty well-documented in having the late vote skew young.

[Meeker]

Shrink with the remaining counties then widen as the late votes come in.

Why would the late vote favor Obama? Doesn't Clinton usually win late deciders?

Also, it's pretty interesting that Obama did better among union members than he among non-union members. I guess union endorsements do work.

Late voters in vote-by-mail = Lazy voters

Lazy voters = Young voters

Young voters = Obama voters

[Joe Biden 2020]

Shrink with the remaining counties then widen as the late votes come in.

Why would the late vote favor Obama? Doesn't Clinton usually win late deciders?

Also, it's pretty interesting that Obama did better among union members than he among non-union members. I guess union endorsements do work.

These late votes or just the last ones to be counted.  Not mentioning any of how they decided.

[Aizen]

just looking at the exit poll. 

sure are a lot of heathens in oregon.  33% never attend church.  wow.

Yep, a lot of smart people in Oregon

[Joe Biden 2020]

Shrink with the remaining counties then widen as the late votes come in.

Why would the late vote favor Obama? Doesn't Clinton usually win late deciders?

Also, it's pretty interesting that Obama did better among union members than he among non-union members. I guess union endorsements do work.

Late voters in vote-by-mail = Lazy voters

Lazy voters = Young voters

Young voters = Obama voters

I like that math!!

[Sam Spade]

I'm just enjoying reading the analysis in this thread, because, quite frankly, I don't know a lot about Oregon.  So there.

[Verily]

Gilliam County 18 points for Obama (!?) Which brings The Oregonian's numbers back to 58-42.

Ah, and they got more votes in from Lane County, which shifted a point towards Obama. Still not nearly all in.

[Alcon]

Gilliam in as Obama +18, which is an incredibly weird result considering I couldn't distinguish it from Morrow nextdoor if I tried.

It's also apparently 246% counted, which is damn thorough

[Meeker]

It's also apparently 246% counted, which is damn thorough

Teehee

[Verily]

LOL, I didn't even see the 246% counted. I think after The Oregonian saying Wallowa was 100% in against CNN saying 50%, we can safely ignore those.