Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[MaxQue]

From the looks, the less (theorically) NDP-friendly riding in Vancouver Island is Nanaimo-Alberni.

Well, I could check that by calculating notionials next week...

[Hatman 🍁]

Naniamo--Alberni looks like it's getting more NDP friendly. It loses some NDP areas, but gains some from Courtenay. Still probably a Tory hold.

[MaxQue]

Naniamo--Alberni looks like it's getting more NDP friendly. It loses some NDP areas, but gains some from Courtenay. Still probably a Tory hold.

I know, but Vancouver Island North gains NDP areas too.
Well, if someone search an area where redistricting is bad for NDP, check the plans for the current riding of BC Southern Interior.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yikes. I think we would still win the new riding, but it will be a fight for sure.

[canadian1]

DL--I don't see the big problem with the Vancouver boundaries--could you specify?

I agree with Foucaulf that the city of Delta is too fragmented to form a cohesive riding, but I'm not convinced I see a strong alternative. Keeping the existing division between north and south creates excess people that have to be jammed into ridings in Richmond and Surrey, throwing everything else off-kilter and probably causing other ridings to cross municipal boundaries. That still might be preferable--I'll defer to BCers on that score.

I'm not a fan of the way this map divides up the Kootenay region (which I happen to know relatively well). The West Kootenay is being carved up in an arbitrary manner that isn't likely to be popular with residents. It's also true that the addition of Penticton will badly weaken the NDP in that riding--perhaps fatally. On the other hand, the transfer of Nelson may give that party a chance at taking Kootenay-Columbia, which is largely NDP turf provincially already.

I thought the Island was handled very well. Anybody see anything weird there?

The Fraser Valley has become chaotic, with Port Coquitlam and Maple Ridge being jammed together, a new constituency crossing the river, and the Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon riding moving north into the Cariboo. That's a difficult area to redistrict, though.

As for Burnaby-Seymour, it's really a necessity. A few months ago, the Babble website featured one user's attempt to redistrict the province without crossing the Burrard Inlet. The results weren't pretty; he ended up with a riding joining little bits of Powell River and central Vancouver Island, along with a number of other anomalies that were certainly more significant than the relatively minor inconvenience of joining Burnaby and North Vancouver.

Nanaimo-Alberni should be renamed Parksville-Alberni, as it no longer includes all that much of Nanaimo itself. WVSCSTSC is way too long a name and must be scrapped. "Vancouver Quadra" has always been a puzzling name; does anyone know what it refers to? (Quadra Island is miles away).

Besides that, I don't see much to criticize.

[DL]

Quadra is named after Juan Quadra the Spanish explorer

[Hatman 🍁]

Nanaimo-Alberni should also include Courtenay in the name. Howabout Parksville-Alberni-Courtenay?

BTW, I remember seeing that rabble thread. I am disappointed that Burnaby-Seymour riding could not be avoided.

Also, looks like Jean Crowder has been pushed out of her riding. Maybe she'll run in the new South Cowichan riding.

[MaxQue]

Also, looks like Jean Crowder has been pushed out of her riding. Maybe she'll run in the new South Cowichan riding.

And Randall Garrison would run in Esquimalt-Colwood?

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, looks like Jean Crowder has been pushed out of her riding. Maybe she'll run in the new South Cowichan riding.

And Randall Garrison would run in Esquimalt-Colwood?

Yes. He lives in Esquimalt. Also, John Duncan may have been forced out of his district, as he lives in Courtenay. But, he has lived all over the riding (Vancouver Island North), so I don't think he will run any where else.

[Holmes]

What bugs me about riding names in Canada is how long some of them can get, often naming three or four communities in the riding as its name. I mean, I get why, but if a riding takes over five seconds to actually just say...

Quebec is a pretty bad offender.

[Hatman 🍁]

What bugs me about riding names in Canada is how long some of them can get, often naming three or four communities in the riding as its name. I mean, I get why, but if a riding takes over five seconds to actually just say...

Quebec is a pretty bad offender.

Three should be the maximum. It's necessary in some places, unfortunately.

Anyways, part one of analyzing BC (Vancouver Island): http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/06/bc-federal-riding-boundary-proposal.html

[MaxQue]

What bugs me about riding names in Canada is how long some of them can get, often naming three or four communities in the riding as its name. I mean, I get why, but if a riding takes over five seconds to actually just say...

Quebec is a pretty bad offender.

People actually complain when they feel not included in the name. The case of my riding is wonderful.
Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik before 2004, Nunavik-Eeyou after, renamed to Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou later, as most population is in Abitibi and in Baie James (Eeyou means "our land" in some Native language, it doesn't belong there, I think). The previous name was better, I think.

[trebor204]

What bugs me about riding names in Canada is how long some of them can get, often naming three or four communities in the riding as its name. I mean, I get why, but if a riding takes over five seconds to actually just say...

Quebec is a pretty bad offender.

Worst case is West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country


During The House of Commons votes the clerk says the last name of the MP (ie Mr Smith). If the last name is shared between more than one MP, the name of the riding is include (Mr Smith, Yukon) However, there are 2 Wetson's in parliament. One in Saint John, and one in West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast -Sea to Sky Country. So when the clerk reads his vote, he would say Mr Weston, West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast - Sea to Sky Country, and the next clerk repeats it.

[Hatman 🍁]

the best is "Mr. Brown, Barrie". I always sounds like a fruity name. I remember when Louise Thibeault was an MP, the clerk had a mouthful saying her riding name "Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques"

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are the proposed Vancouver ridings superimposed on a map I created showing the left and right wing areas in the city (using results from the last 2 municipal elections, the last federal and the last provincial election):



Red = left
Blue = right
Purple = mix

[Poirot]

Hello. I'm a new member. Inspired by the discussion on page 6 of this thread about Vaudreuil-Soulanges in Québec, I have tried to make something for the western part of the Montérégie région.

Some suggested to join part of Vaudreuil-Soulanges and west island of Montreal. That would be a quick way to solve Vaudreuil's overpopulation. It would cross over two administrative regions (Montérégie and Montréal). So instead i tried the other way someone suggested, and retrieving most of the Soulanges part of Vaudreuil-Soulanges and putting it with Salaberry and see the consequences on neighbouring ridings in Montérégie.

VAUDREUIL
The nothern half part of Vaudreuil-Soulanges would become Vaudreuil and would be 106,424 people:
Ile Perrot (4 towns 37,399), Ile Cadieux, Vaudreuil sur le Lac, Vaudreuil-Dorion, Saint-Lazare, Hudson, Rigaud, Pointe-Fortune, Très-Saint-Rédempteur, Sainte-Marthe.


SALABERRY
The rest of Vaudreuil-Soulanges is 32,929 people (Rivière-Beaudette, Saint-Zotique, Les Coteaux, Coteau-du-lac, Les Cèdres, Pointe des Cascades, Saint-Clet, Saint-Polycarpe, Saint-Télésphore, Sainte-Justine de Newton). There is a bridge linking Valleyfield to Coteau du lac and a toll bridge will open to complete highway 30 that lands near Les Cèdres from Beauharnois I believe. So this area joins the Salaberry riding.

Valleyfield would be the center of the Salaberry riding, it would keep all of the MRC Haut Saint-Laurent  (Huntingdon area) and its 21,197 people.
Salaberry would lose the territory of MRC Jardins de Napierville (Saint-Rémi, Napierville).
But the MRC of Beauharnois-Salaberry is 61,950 so with MRC Haut-Saint-Laurent and part of Soulanges it would make a total of 116,076. Perhaps a bit too big since the quotient is 101,320.

Ideally numbers wise, Beauharnois (about 12,000) would be transfered over to the Châteauguay riding. Melocheville has merged with Beauharnois so now Beauharnois is on the two sides of the Beauharnois canal so crosses over onto the island. The canal could have been a geographic limit without that.
The other option would be to transfer to Châteauguay Sainte-Martine (easy road link) and Saint-Urbain-Premier (total of 6,114 people). The commission doesn't seem to like breaking up an MRC but there it goes. If I go with the second option the total for Salaberry riding: 109,962.
After doing the next riding Châteauguay, I think I would need to add some population for the Quebec portion of the Akwesasne indian reservation here, meaning I would need to transfer more people over to Chateauguay or bring less people from Soulanges and that would make Vaudreuil bigger.


CHATEAUGUAY
Châteauguay riding would be composed of the western part of MRC Rousillon so Châteauguay, Mercier, Léry, Saint-Isidore for 62,376 people. The MRC Jardins de Napierville to the south (26,234). The northern part of that MRC, Saint-Rémi has more easy connections to Châteauguay. The southern part, Napierville, is a bit far but they were with Valleyfield before so its an improvement I think. The territory of MRC Jardins de Napierville and MRC Rousillon are together and make one school board in the education system.

Riding population would be 94,724 (it would be 100,000 if Beauharnois doesn't mind being put in Châteauguay instead of Sainte-Martine/Saint-Urbain). The Kahnawake indian reserve is usually put with Châteauguay. Statcan doesn't have numbers since they don't do the census. I imagine Elections Canada still count them in a riding, i will put approximitaly 7,000 people and the riding total is over 100,000.

LA PRAIRIE- SAINT-CONSTANT
The rest of the present riding of Châteauguay-Saint-Constant (Saint-Constant, Sainte-Catherine, Delson, Saint-Mathieu) is joined with Candiac, La Prairie and Saint-Philippe from the present riding of Brossard La-Prairie. This is all the MRC Rousillon east of Kahnawake. Population of 99,811. We can refer to it as Rousillon or La Prairie-Saint-Constant.

BROSSARD-SAINT-LAMBERT
Moving east would be Brossard-Saint-Lambert. Only these two suburban cities that are part of the Longueuil agglomeration. 100,828.


So one new riding created in west Montérégie has solved the overpopulation of Vaudreuil-Soulanges and Brossard-La Prairie. Chambly-Borduas needs to be reduced in size. The present Saint-Lambert riding would become entirely inside Longueuil.

Would this proposition be acceptable to the commission or it involves too many changes?
If they decide to go with making a part of west island with Vaudreuil-Soulanges it will not help the other Montérégie oversized ridings. Brossard-La Prairie needs to lose 20,000 people which is the population of Candiac but it can't be put into neighboring Châteauguay-Saint-Constant it would be oversized. The only other option is to carve out 20,000 people of Brossard and put them in Saint-Lambert.

I don't know how the commission deals with the indian reserves of Akwesasne and Kanhawake if there is no census figures.

[Smid]

Welcome to the Forum, Poirot!

[RogueBeaver]

I'll be interested to see the Ontario and Quebec proposals.

[MaxQue]

I'll be interested to see the Ontario and Quebec proposals.

Well, they should be the 2 last ones we'll get.
Any idea why PEI is so long? It shouldn't be that complicated!

[Hatman 🍁]

I think one of you guys should take a stab at PEI. Should be easy enough

[Novelty]

Do you plan to review the rest of BC, Hatman?

[lilTommy]

I'm not that surprised with BC, In Vancouver i think thats pretty much what i was hoping to see was a new "Granville" Type riding that makes VC more NDP winable...

I've notice the Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge cuts Port Coquitlam in an odd way, there just a huge chunk thrown into it. I don't like it, anyone from BC have a comment on that? Would it not have been better to have a Coquitlam-Port Conquitlam riding, then have Port Moody and noth east Coquitlam added into the PMMR? Thoughts?

I think Esquimalt-Colwood will be more competative but Garrison will have incumbency and his past Esq. centred political carrer to his advantage; in this case the candidate will help the NDP more then the NDP will help the candidate, yes?

Also, the NDP lost a riding in Southern BC Interior (hate that name anyway)... looks like its now the southern portions of Chilliwack FC; Central Ok, Southern Ok. Any guess where Atamanenko would run? He lives in Castlegar which is in Southern Ok... and frankly i think thats the smart choice. The other two don't strike me as even NDP targets

[Hatman 🍁]

Do you plan to review the rest of BC, Hatman?

Yes, I do. I've just been enjoying the long weekend and the weather. But, I hope to do the next part this evening. That map I made on the last page is a sneak peak for my next update. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Analysis of Vancouver up!

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/07/bc-federal-riding-boundary-proposal.html

[lilTommy]

Analysis of Vancouver up!

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/07/bc-federal-riding-boundary-proposal.html

Great review, So for Hedy Fry its a damned if you do, damned if you don't eh. Good question is will she run again? She's been around since 93 and now would be the time to bow out or risk being defeated. Running in the new VC would be a risk cause its more favourable to the NDP, especially if they run a star or even strong candidate... and the right-of-centre vote might shift to the tories and she gets squeezed out. VG is also not a good fit, her best polls are now in the riding but so are the very affluent areas of VQ. It might just be a good time for her to call it quits.

I agree with your reason that VC should be smaller and VQ should be bigger... thats easily accomplished by moving say polls from Kits Point from VC to VQ... not sure on the numbers though