Washington state megathread

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Spokane ballot returns at 33.8% while King County is at... 24.01%. Oh dear

Spokane isn't all that bad. And Eastern Wa may be Republican but it's not that conservative, just look at the results of the death with dignity referendum last year.

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I-1033: Fail 41-59

R71: Pass 54-46 (this is my hope, but I won't be surprised if it is a total flip thanks to turnout)

KingCo. Exec: Constantine 52-48 (this may be totally lopsided and there is a slight possibility for Hutchinson to win, but it is King County...)

Seattle Mayor: McGinn 51-49 (this is definitely just me being hopeful)

Has anyone noticed an unusual number of people unopposed or is this really typical?

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This leaves the statewide numbers at 44-56 for I-1033 and 52-48 for R-71.

Washington > Maine

If this was straight up gay marriage instead of a civil union, this would have failed as well.

Maybe. But I feel like this off-year election really messed up the results since young voters didn't really care and the older voters actually voted. I wonder what the demographics of the Maine vote were because it seems like Washington would possibly approve gay marriage.

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Isn't Gregoire a little old to become a Supreme Court Justice?
I certainly could see her becoming Attorney General, especially if Napolitano (another obvious choice) is appointed to the Supreme Court.

I've always felt that age was a positive for Supreme Court, although I can see how a selfish leader would want a young justice. But isn't a healthy justice more important than a young one?

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Wow, no wonder it feels so pro gay-rights here, Issaquah is even stronger than Bellevue. Probably thanks to new development.

The 8th is definitely more supportive of it than the 6th or 9th. The Eastside is wary of taxes, but is very socially liberal. Drugs, sex, gay marriage, civil liberties, you name it; this is probably the most non-religious and least socially conservative suburban area in the country. Plus the 8th includes a large chunk of rural King and Pierce County, so the Eastside must have supported r71 by nearly 60%.

Eastern Washington really sucked.

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Washington bill in the works would recognize gay marriages performed in other states:

http://dlr.leg.wa.gov/billsummary/default.aspx?Bill=2482&year=2009

I think this is the right kind of incremental approach -- basically set it up so not having gay marriage is ridiculous, because after all we pretty much have it anyway.

I think WA will be the first state to have gay marriage here in the West permanently. This approach is better than taking it to the courts.

Does anyone else find it interesting that the two main GOP candidates for WA-3 are Hispanic?

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wow what a dramatic shift from the 2008 presidential election. The Eastside totally went back to their traditional tossup status, darn.

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These two candidates are why I hate the top-two system, there is no option for me to vote for.
Anyone else feel they may just leave this one blank?

The point is that you do get to vote for whoever you want in the primary without fear of spoiling the ballot and then you get to chose your favorite of the two most popular in the general. No Nader problems here and that sounds good to me.

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Ok, well I can see where someone would get the idea that Murray isn't the most intelligent Senator. However aren't people generally disdainful about how uber-intelligent the Senate is anyways? I mean like most of the senators are from the Ivy Leagues and that definitely doesn't represent the American public well. It's probably just Murray's image as a soccer mom that makes her seem less "intelligent," but at the same time she's less of a snob image-wise than most of the senate.

Plus Dino Rossi comes across as an airhead to me....

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Will we be able to gerrymander Washington? Or do you guys use some sort of awful commission?

Our congressional districts are drawn by a bipartisan commission.

Which is a great thing, considering that last census I'm pretty sure the Republicans were in charge, and this year was very close unfortunately.

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The State Senate race in LD-41 will go to a machine recount, but Randy Gordon is still screwed.

At least it's a special election, so the Democrats will be able to get it back in 2012 instead having to wait for 2014.

Still not looking forward to being represented by a Republican for two years... he's going to be tough to encourage higher ed. spending. bleh.

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No way is this okay in my opinion. I think Kucinich is a fascinating man, but his time is up. He is speaking in Seattle in two or three weeks and I thought it was just random, but now there seems to be a more subtle motivation. I am slightly disgusted. That's just way to opportunistic and he does not represent the Washington I live in. I hope he is primaried out.

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For Senate Bill 5688 in 2009 on Domestic Partnerships, the Senate voted 30-18-1 for the bill.

3 Republicans crossed over and voted for the bill:
Brandland - 42 (retired)
Pflug - 5
King - 14

4 Democrats crossed over and voted against the bill:
Hargrove - 24
Hatfield - 19
Sheldon - 35
Shin - 21

The first three democrats are all from the Coast/Olympic Peninsula. Shin is Korean so not entirely surprising that he voted against it, although I don't think his district voted against it.

King is the only who who really surprises me, no idea why he voted yes.

I don't know who switched after the last election, but I know that Baumgartner has replaced Marr likely losing that vote. Fain replaced Kauffman in 47, and also seems like a lost cause.
Jarrett has been replaced by Litzow, but 41 is based in Mercer Island and Bellevue, so he would be foolish to be against same-sex marriage. Likewise Oemig was replaced by Hill, but 45 is similarly socially liberal. Maralyn Chase, Steve Conway supported it as a rep.

Kastama, Kilmer, and Hobbs all supported domestic partnerships, but marriage might be different.

Anyways from my count it looks like passage is dependent on getting those Republicans like Pflug and King to continue their support and pull in Litzow, Hill, and possibly Baumgartner or Fain since other Democrats might not support it. It really depends on those Republicans and maybe Shin or another Democrat will switch his original support, but it seems unlikely despite their constituents' views.

 

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According to a Yakima news story, King is against same-sex marriage with a rather strong stance, so I guess he's not much of a swing vote.

"I think marriage is defined by the state as between a man and a woman and I think it should stay that way," said (R) Sen. Curtis King, 14th District.

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Awesome! Things are actually looking much better than I ever would have dreamed.. Though that also makes me nervous to a certain degree. Are there any democrats we should be worried about who should be yes votes?

Placed in the context of the previous domestic partnership debate, several seats changed from Democratic to Republican senators (4). 30 senators voted for domestic partnerships (27 D, 3 R). So assuming that everyone votes the same except the changed seats, the vote would be 26-24. However of the Republicans who supported it, Curtis King of Yakima already stated his opposition, Brandland has been replaced by Ericksen who is also opposed. Pflug has stated her full support, but this would place the numbers at only 24-26.

Then Litzow stated his support, bringing it up to 25-25.

But Haugen wants a referendum, so without her support we are back to 24-26.

Thus, Andy Hill, Joe Fain, or one of the Democrats who were against domestic partnerships needs to support the bill for passage w/o a referendum.
But if Haugen has her way a referendum will be necessary.

I'm also nervous about Steve Conway (D-29) because he is new and from a district that I don't think supported R-71. Besides Conway, Kastama, Eide, and Hobbs are uncertain votes.

We will have to wait and see how those 5 above Democrats decide to vote because unless another Republican comes out to support the marriage bill this may be tough.

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Shin is LDS, which does not bode well for his support although his constituents likely are supportive.

Sorry I forgot the number of districts in WA. Silly me.

Also, do we know how the LD's voted on R-71?

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My observation of Mt. Vernon based solely on driving through on I-5 a bunch: "Il Granaio" whoa well aren't you guys hip!? Oooooh, tulips on an old smokestack. Edgy.

No surprise they're liberals!

It's, like, 20% hardcore redneck, 20% crunchy granola type, 20% Mexican.  Seems like a pretty fantastic place.  I like to imagine that the local politics are hilarious.

Doesn't Mt. Vernon have that conservative racist mayor who is a huge supporter of Glen Beck (whose hometown is Mt. Vernon)?

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I don't know why Parlette and Ericksen are undecided because they both seem like opposition.

Shin represents a supportive constituency but is Mormon (but he's a Democrat).

Hill also represents a very supportive constituency but is a Republican

Fain is a less sure vote and I think his LD might have voted against R-71 (he's also a Republican).

Hatfield is a Democrat of a more working class district that also voted against R-71, but he seems rather open-minded about this despite voting against domestic partnerships. Supposedly he's become more religious over the past few years too.

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This is awesome.

I wonder what the rest of the undecideds will do. I'm pretty sure most will end up on the No side, but Hill, Hatfield, or Fain might vote yes.

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I didn't understand the timing for this, but I'd guess they are aiming for the Governor to sign this by Valentine's Day...

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While we are growing faster than most states, our growth rate is slower than the previous decade I believe, and redistribution depends on high percentages of growth, enough to transfer large populations from one state to another. 2020 may be a very boring redistribution if current trends continue (I think there have been years in the past where barely any seats changed hands).

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Those are some very depressing numbers. I'm not surprised Burner is the top Democrat but 3x the runner-up? I just can't believe we're going to lose this seat. Sigh.

Not to mention that it's completely Democrats' fault. Just so we could have a minority-majority seat that will be represented by a White guy for 10 years...

It's sad that WA will have an even delegation for the next decade because of redistricting (except in a Democratic wave year).

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There were some places that supported gay marriage more than pot, but were there places that were against pot more than they were against gay marriage?

In other words what locations voted more No for R72 than No for R502?

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King County really looks like it is almost all Democratic. Traditional Republican strongholds like Sammamish and even Maple Valley / Covington look like the majority of voters were Democrats... really goes to show how much King County has transformed.

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Does anyone have any updates on the WA-8 race? The candidates seem remarkably similar and I'm concerned that the Democrats are not running a strong campaign against Rossi, but since I no longer live there I'm curious what things are like on the ground.