Vox Populi - October 1982 General Election

[Lumine]

October 1982 - Powell campaigns for a second term as PM

Prelude: After a successful (if controversial) four years in government, Powell goes to the polls for another term as the Labour Party splits and Michael Steed faces his first test as Liberal Leader. Who will win the election?

Labour Party: Split after an internal civil war, the main Labour Party is led by former (Acting) Prime Minister Denis Healey on a moderate center-left patform that hopes to update Callaghanism and Shoreism alike. Healey and his Deputy David Owen are therefore fighting on a platform of entry into the Common Market, a progressive economic policy, moderate social views and a more hawkish stance on foreign affairs. Attacking Powell and Heffer as "extremists", Healey is also advocating that it is Labour and not the SLP that remains the true heir to the Labour legacy.

Conservative Party: Hoping to be reelected as Prime Minister, Powell is campaigning on the successful economic recovery and his proposed reforms, arguing that the opposition parties are too divided to govern. Keeping known planks such as his anti-Europe, tough on crime and immigration, Unionist and isolationist platform, Powell has also promised to continue his limited privatization proposals (while ruling out welfare cuts), introducing a right-to-buy scheme to address housing, defending Northern Ireland from any hostility from Ireland, and expanding foreign ties and commerce with countries outside the Europe-US sphere.

Liberal Party: The Liberal Party under Michael Steed has taken another turn to the left for his election, consolidating themselves as a center-left to left "liberal progressive alternative". Steed and the Liberals run on full integration with Europe, radical and widespread political reform (from devolution to lords reform, PR for elections, fixed terms and so on), a dovish foreign policy (including unilateral nuclear disarmament), social-liberalism, the modernization of Britain and a moderate, if progressive economic policy.

Plaid Cymru / Scottish National Party: After changing leaders the trends of both nationalist parties have continued to drift, leading both to end most of their previous collaboration. Under their new leader Willie MacRae the SNP has defined itself as a socialist party, standing not only for Scottish independence but against nuclear weapons and in staunch opposition to Enoch Powell. Plaid Cymru has ended up defining itself as a "social-democratic party" under Dafydd Wigley, resuming its policy of collaboration with other parties while standing up for Welsh values and Welsh culture.

Socialist Labour Party: Tired of the domination of the Labour right the hard-left has revolted under its spiritual leaders Eric Heffer and Joan Maynard, who along a couple dozen MP's have left to create their own hardline Socialist Labour Party. Running in about half the country (as the party was founded in 1980), the SLP takes the Heffer 79' platform to the streets, with a manifesto calling for staunch opposition to Europe, large-scale nationalization, abolition of the House of Lords, unilateral nuclear disarmament, extreme social-liberalization, support for the trade unions and a national minimum wage.

Two days.

Note: Socialist Labour will lose a part of its vote share due to not running in every seat, but it won't be penalized in the seats it receives. Since Powell is the incumbent, there will be a swing of 1% from the Tories to the Liberals (since they are the Opposition now).

[Maxwell]

Labor.

[Intell]

Socialist Labour.

[Kingpoleon]

Steed! Steed! Steed!

[NeverAgain]

Steed! Steed! Steed!

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Tories

[MAINEiac4434]

Labour.

[Arturo Belano]

Heffer and the SLP

[Maxwell]

oh god damn can we NOT haave another Enoch Powell ministry?

[Lumine]

Quite a fascinating collapse for the Liberals there (and a dismal result for Plaid and the SNP). Still a day left, but it seems I'll have to use the idea I had to justify a Liberal collapse far earlier than expected.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

oh god damn can we NOTplease haave another Enoch Powell ministry?

[Senator Spiral]

Enoch's the man.

I imagine, even if someone like Healey wins, that it would be already be difficult for any major pro-Europe reform to push through the public given the nationalist sentiment of the last decade of government in particular.

[Lumine]

About an hour left here.

[Maxwell]

Quite a fascinating collapse for the Liberals there (and a dismal result for Plaid and the SNP). Still a day left, but it seems I'll have to use the idea I had to justify a Liberal collapse far earlier than expected.

Libs jumping over to a new Euro friendly Labor as Labor splits in two?

[Lumine]

Quite a fascinating collapse for the Liberals there (and a dismal result for Plaid and the SNP). Still a day left, but it seems I'll have to use the idea I had to justify a Liberal collapse far earlier than expected.

Libs jumping over to a new Euro friendly Labor as Labor splits in two?

That was the original idea, but we're talking about a collapse of over 20 points. I'll probably have to use the scandal route.

[Lumine]

October 1982 General Election:

October 1982 - As the Liberals collapse and Labour revives, Powell hangs on

Conservative Party: 34.2% (331 MP's)
Labour Party: 32.6% (242 MP's)
Socialist Labour Party: 15.4% (51 MP's)
Liberal Party: 12.5% (12 MP's)
Scottish National Party: 1.9% (5 MP's)
Plaid Cymru : 1.1% (4 MP's)
Others: 2.3% (5 MP's)

Despite broad speculation from 1981 to 1982 that Healey's Labour was doomed by the defection of the hard-left into the SLP and wide expectation that Michael Steed's Liberals would face a tough but winnable struggle against Enoch Powell, the election became a much different affair than what was expected, similar in a way to the 1967 snap election. But rather than the government, the main story of the campaign was the abrupt and crushing end to the dreams and aspirations of the Liberal Party, one of the harsher falls from grace witnessed in British Politics by that time. A few weeks before the election the then Home Secretary Leon Brittan had come onto the possession of highly sensitive information regarding unprecedented scandals affecting key politicians in Westminster, information he agonized over whether to withhold or present despite its explosive nature.

Brittan's decision was to withhold, and the resulting disappointment of (still unidentified today) sources inside the Home Office led to leaks to the press. The embarrassment over the first leak alone led a furious Powell to sack Brittan, but it was not the Conservatives or Labour that were to face the decisive flak over the issue. The leaks charged key Liberal frontbencher Clement Freud with sexual abuse allegations, placing immediate pressure over Michael Steed as the first days of the campaign became all about the Liberal Party. Steed did his best to contain the damage and deflect criticism over Brittan's resignation, until a second leak identified another Liberal frontbencher, Cyril Smith, as another possible offender. Steed fought valiantly and courageously after sacking Smith and Freud, but until Election Day not a single thing Steed could do would save his party from impending doom.

Westminster and the political parties badly shaken by the scandal, all attention now turned to Labour and the SLP, suddenly turned into the only plausible challengers to Powell and the Tories. Eric Heffer, Joan Maynard and the Socialist Labour Party fought what was believed to be an excellent campaign despite the extreme platform they stood on, successfully mobilizing young voters and old Labour loyalists while capturing what used to be the Liberal protest vote. Alas, being confined to just half the country ruled them out as the main alternative of the left, their clear success in building a strong base for the future aside. This left Healey and his "continuity" Labour, and the opportunity was exploited. Much more acceptable to the voters who had deserted Labour due to Callaghan and Shore, Healey used his wit and charisma to full extent, running a slick and modern campaign while strongly attacking Heffer, Steed and Powell.

Powell's Conservatives were in contrast believed to have run a relatively poor campaign, with a muddled message despite the existing accomplishments of the Government. The whole situation regarding Leon Brittan did little to improve the Conservatives's poll ratings, and many voters who had once left Labour returned home in larger numbers than those who backed the Tories. But in the end, Election Night proved the excessive optimism in Labour wrong. Healey had come within striking distance in the popular vote, but the presence of the SLP blew up the road to a majority as Heffer captured more than 50 seats across the night. The Liberal Party, already badly served by first past the post faced an unmitigated punishment as they were pushed back to the low tens, losing more than 130 seats in a humiliating night which even costed Steed his seat.

Aided by a strong Unionist result across Northern Ireland (as Powell and the Unionists grabbed 12 out of 17 seats) the Tories reached another five-seat majority, this time in an expanded parliament that had grown from 635 to 650. Enoch Powell returned to Downing Street.

[IceAgeComing]

would be a majority of ten, actually

[Lumine]

would be a majority of ten, actually

My bad! It's actually ten, I've been looking at majorities in the wrong way (I counted them as after one party has surpassed the 50% + 1, not as their number as opposed to the total of the opposition)