Mr. 47%

[Whacker77]

As someone who vehemently opposed Romney in the primaries, it's taken me some time to warm to him.  I suppose I've reconciled myself to him now and I suspect that's the case with many other conservatives as well.  Reconciled support is never the greatest thing for a candidate, but they've got to do the best they can with what they have.

Having said that, I've noticed a recurring number in the multitude of polls that have been released over the last four months.  Whether it's the horserace or job approval, Obama seems to be the 47% man.  To be sure, a poll every now and then puts Obama above the 47% mark, but they're rare on the national scene and never confirmed.

I bring this number up because history has taught us two general things about presidential races involving incumbents.  First, an incumbent's vote total rarely exceeds his job approval rating.  Second, incumbents are definitely in the danger zone when they poll below 50% this close to an election.

If history serves as a guide once again on these two issues, Obama is probably in more serious trouble than the polls generally indicate.  Now before people say I'm drawing too many conclusions, just review the RCP charts and you'll see how often 47% appears in the horserace and job approval.  It's hard to miss.

I also realize GWB polled around 47% for a time in 2004, but that was his nadir that year and he steadily rebounded as election day moved closer.  In fact, his approval in the exit polls on election day was 53% according to Sean Trende at RCP.  Without a doubt, the economy was in far better shape an improving.

Regardless, it's hard not to notice how consistently Obama polls at or below the 47% mark.  That number doesn't guarantee a defeat because he's just a few points from 50%.  But Obama is also just a few points away from 44% as well.  And if the economy continues to slow into the Fall, it will be tougher and tougher for him to nudge above the 47% line.

[Whacker77]

Job approval is very critical for incumbent presidents.  Carter ran ahead of his job approval in 1980, but his vote percentage all but matched his job approval on election day.  Almost certainly, if Obama's job approval was over 50%, supporters would be using it as proof the election was all but over.

I also agree 47% for Obama is better than 45% for Romney, but Obama is 100% known to the public.  His 47% number is not the same as Romney's 45% number is.  Obama's number has been forged over three and a half years as president and essentially corresponds with his job approval.  Romney's number has room to grow (or fall) since he's not as well known to the uninformed dopes who make up the vast majority of the voting public.

I'm not saying Obama is doomed because of this job approval number, but I think it's more important than most think.  If history holds form and his vote share doesn't exceed his job approval on election day, he could face trouble.  That's especially true if the economy continues to slow.  It's hard to see Obama becoming more popular if we're teetering on the edge of recession.

[Whacker77]

If polling is any indiction, Mitt's 45% is likely to fall.

The more people learn about him, the less they like.

So Romney's likely to do worse in 2012 than the 47% McCain got in 2008?  I find that very hard to believe.

[Whacker77]

The national polls are irrelevant. Romney will run up the score in solid red states, but he has virtually no path to 270.

Obama - 253
Romney - 191

I don't see Romney denies Obama 17 EVs from that lot, given what current polling looks like. Barring major economic downtown, Obama should win re-election.

That's just crazy to say.  I'm not predicting Romney will win, but to say he has no path is wrong.  The internal data of most recent polls has been very bad for Obama.  Top line numbers are almost always the last to change.  The economic fatigue is just now starting to filter into the headline numbers and we're seeing Romney creep up on Obama.

I suppose you could have written the same thing about Reagan in 1980.  His path to victory didn't look so good in July, yet he won 43 states.  Things can change and the polls will follow, not lead.

[Whacker77]

If history serves as a guide once again on these two issues, Obama is probably in more serious trouble than the polls generally indicate.  Now before people say I'm drawing too many conclusions, just review the RCP charts and you'll see how often 47% appears in the horserace and job approval.  It's hard to miss.

I don't disagree that he's at around 47%. But where I think you're drawing too many conclusions is the premise that history serves as a guide. We do not have anywhere near a statistically useful sample of elections (with polling data) in which the incumbent was below 50%, much less those in which he was below 50% but very near it.

Fair enough.

[Whacker77]

If polling is any indiction, Mitt's 45% is likely to fall.

The more people learn about him, the less they like.

So Romney's likely to do worse in 2012 than the 47% McCain got in 2008?  I find that very hard to believe.

No record of military heroism (or martyrdom). McCain didn't have business dealings to defend.

So you think it's possible Obama beats Romney 55-45 or 56-44?  Sorry, but that's just fantasy.  Not that Obama will win, but that he can win a significant victory with the current economic conditions.  Nominal Republicans are not going to abandon Romney to vote for Obama.

Anyone who thinks McCain was a popular nominee for the Republican party is smoking some really good stuff.  He was anything but.  Romney may not be popular either, but the desire to beat Obama is over the top and the economy stinks.

[Whacker77]

The suggestion was that if anyone had room to fall further in the polls, it was Romney from his current 45% perch.  If that were to be the case, it would signal Obama winning by 10 points or so.  That's not going to happen.

As for 1936, the situations are similar, but not so much.  FDR won a decisive victory because there was a widespread belief things were improving.  After all, unemployment had gone from 25% to 15%.  In terms of 1984, once again there was a widespread belief things were improving.  It was morning in America.

Obama can't run on a view that things are improving so comparing 2012 to 1936 is a stretch.  Unemployment has gone from 8% to 10% back to 8%.  It's probably even rising again.  And I would also say Obama's failure to convince most Americans to believe in his programs suggests his political skills aren't as good as Reagan's.