Mississippi 2015 Megathread

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I don't think anyone's going to vote for 42A. I haven't seen any ads, billboards, mailers, etc., saying to do so -- it's all "VOTE NO ON BOTH!!!" I think most No voters will probably just leave the 42/42A question blank.

If Yes can get the majority on the first question (and I have no idea how to predict that, other than I think most Mississippians think more education funding is a good idea), I think 42 will beat 42A.

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I think that article is a little overblown. I think more than 9% of Mississippians can read explicit instructions to vote for one out of "Yes" and "No" and one out of 42 and 42A.

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I do think it's likely that most "No" voters will leave the second question blank, as no one is campaigning on "No but also 42A!!!"

Because of that, I don't think 42A will get many votes at all, definitely not enough to outvote 42. The only questions are can "Yes" get 50% of the vote, and will most people who vote "Yes" also remember to mark the second question.

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Predictions:

Bryant 63-36
Reeves 61-38
Hosemann 63-36
Hood 54-46
Pickering 58-42

D/R +0 in the Senate after Dems knock off 1 of Tollison and Clarke (all other incumbents survive)
D/R +0 in the House (not really sure which, but seems like a reasonable baseline)

42:  Yes wins 55-45, and "42" barely meets the 40% threshold

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A few things to watch for:

• 42 will live or die on the backs of white Republicans in Desoto, Rankin, Madison, Harrison, etc., counties: well-to-do people who send their kids to public schools. The same people who voted down Personhood 4 years ago. If you see 42 failing in those counties, it's probably over.
• In order to have any chance, Mike Hurst needs to win the counties in Northeast Mississippi that Obama couldn't get 40% in, but Hood has always won. Counties like Lee, Pontotoc, Union, Tippah, Alcorn, Tishomingo, Prentiss, Itawamba, etc. If Hood is winning those counties early, you can be assured of his reelection. If Hurst wins those counties, it's going to get interesting.

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Agree with the above, and will add that reports are that 42 is doing poorly among voters in Rankin.

Well that blows, but Romney and McCain both broke 75% there, so 42 could lose handily there but still run well ahead of the Democratic baseline.

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Anti-42 vote totals will also be running-up quite significantly in Oktibbeha, Lafayette, and Forrest Counties.  These aren't insignificant population centers, and these areas' dependence on higher-ed makes them especially weary of the budget implications of 42.

Mississippi State Extension Service has been telling their employees that passage of 42 means a 45% cut in FY 2016 budgets.  They've already announced a delay of raises contingent on 42's outcome.  45% cut?  That's probably a bit overblown, but that type of fear-mongering among the State's IHLs is exactly what needs to happen in order to defeat 42.   

I haven't heard much about Starkville, but I thought Oxford was ground zero for pro-42 politics?

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I don't understand that ballot measure at all. Its so vague and the corresponding measure just makes it ridiculous.

Currently, the legislature is required by law to fund public education in Mississippi adequately. There is a formula (MAEP) that defines "adequate." Even though it's the law, the legislature has only met the required funding level twice in 20 years. That's allowed since the Mississippi Constitution gives the legislature the final say in what education funding will be. No one can take the legislature to Court, even though our schools (among the worst in America) are continually underfunded.

Initiative 42 allows the chancery court system the jurisdiction to review education funding decisions to make sure they follow the law. If the legislature continues to underfund education, there will be lawsuits.

Initiative 42A is a trick initiative which has similar wording, but still leaves the final decision in the hands of the legislature -- no judicial review. There's no real reason to pass it because it doesn't really change anything. It's just another hurdle to prevent 42 from passing.

To pass, "Yes" must beat "No", "42" must beat "42A", and "42" must be selected on at least 40% of the total ballots statewide. This could be an issue if a lot of people don't understand and leave the second question blank.

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Another precinct reports in Simpson County

Hood leads 77-23

Gray leads 61-36


Hood only over performing Gray by 16...

RIP Hood

As long as blacks are at least 30% of the electorate, Hood should win even with that.

That means Gray has to get at least 34% of the vote...unlikely...

No, that's almost certain. Gray didn't run any worse of a campaign than Johnny Dupree did 4 years ago. (Dupree lost 61-39)

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County map sources?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_county/MS_Governor_1103.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

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42 is losing in DeSoto County, but only by 12.

For comparison, Hood is losing by 33 there. Bryant is winning by 59.

For 42 to win, it's got to run way ahead of the Democrat vote there.

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What is I-42?

Currently, the legislature is required by law to fund public education in Mississippi adequately. There is a formula (MAEP) that defines "adequate." Even though it's the law, the legislature has only met the required funding level twice in 20 years. That's allowed since the Mississippi Constitution gives the legislature the final say in what education funding will be. No one can take the legislature to Court, even though our schools (among the worst in America) are continually underfunded.

Initiative 42 allows the chancery court system the jurisdiction to review education funding decisions to make sure they follow the law. If the legislature continues to underfund education, there will be lawsuits.

Initiative 42A is a trick initiative which has similar wording, but still leaves the final decision in the hands of the legislature -- no judicial review. There's no real reason to pass it because it doesn't really change anything. It's just another hurdle to prevent 42 from passing.

To pass, "Yes" must beat "No", "42" must beat "42A", and "42" must be selected on at least 40% of the total ballots statewide. This could be an issue if a lot of people don't understand and leave the second question blank.

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Kinda stunned at the the results for 42 in NE Mississippi.

It's actually running a little ahead of Obama 2012 up there. #Istillbelieve

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Calling it now, "No" will win the first question. 

No votes from Rankin, Harrison, or the white parts of Madison at all yet. But if they follow a similar pattern to DeSoto and "Yes" runs 23 points ahead of Robert Gray, then I like 42's chances.

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Harrison comes in! 52-48 yes!

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How many seats are Republicans gaining in each house?

If Dawkins holds on (up 200 votes with 3 precincts to go), they won't pick up any in the Senate, aside from the 1 we've known about for months due to redistricting.

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lol at Bryant winning 65% in Leflore.

Weird result. 42 also lost there (wtf)

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Dawkins wins by 600 votes. The Dems won't lose any senate seats.

Probably won't gain any either, unless Joseph Thomas can make up 400 votes on Buck Clarke with 9 precincts to go.

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"Yes" should net 20,000 or more votes in Hinds county. Maybe more like 25,000. Yes doesn't have to win Rankin/Madison/Jackson, it just needs to be close. Mid-40s or better.

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Bob Dearing takes the lead on Sojourner with 5 precincts to go !!?!

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Both of those Dearing/Sojourner precincts are in Pike County, expect to GOP to win that.

Yeah, but how large are the precincts?

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Madison votes no on 42 by 20 points (super wtf).

Assuming Rankin is similar, it's not looking good for 42 at all. Hinds will make it close, but it's going to take more.

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What does 42 do? I forgot.

Currently, the legislature is required by law to fund public education in Mississippi adequately. There is a formula (MAEP) that defines "adequate." Even though it's the law, the legislature has only met the required funding level twice in 20 years. That's allowed since the Mississippi Constitution gives the legislature the final say in what education funding will be. No one can take the legislature to Court, even though our schools (among the worst in America) are continually underfunded.

Initiative 42 allows the chancery court system the jurisdiction to review education funding decisions to make sure they follow the law. If the legislature continues to underfund education, there will be lawsuits.

Initiative 42A is a trick initiative which has similar wording, but still leaves the final decision in the hands of the legislature -- no judicial review. There's no real reason to pass it because it doesn't really change anything. It's just another hurdle to prevent 42 from passing.

To pass, "Yes" must beat "No", "42" must beat "42A", and "42" must be selected on at least 40% of the total ballots statewide. This could be an issue if a lot of people don't understand and leave the second question blank.

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So 42 only needs 40% to pass? How about 42A?

We don't even look at the 42-42A vote unless "Yes" gets 50%. If that happens, we look at whoever got the most between 42 and 42A, but if neither gets 40%, then they both still fail.

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In the House, Baria survives by 45 votes.