FIFA 2014 World Cup - Official Discussion Thread

[politicallefty]

From the standpoint of seeing the US advance, we want to see Germany beat Ghana today, correct? From the way I understand it, more permutations than not for a US advance need to have Germany win today (and they get pretty ugly with a Ghana win). What happens if today's game sees Germany and Ghana tie? In other words, my question here is what is the optimal result in today's Germany/Ghana match that best leads to a US advance?

[politicallefty]

If Ghana somehow beat Germany today and assuming Portugal wins tomorrow, this will really become the Group of Death. Of course, there are still goal difference advantages (unless Portugal win by three goals, you'll still technically be in second place) but everything will be left to play for on the last day and you don't want that going into the Germany match.

A draw today wouldn't be the worst result from the U.S. perspective but, again, Germany would be fired up for that final match because they'd only have four points. If Portugal end the weekend with three points, they would win the group with a victory against Ghana if Germany can't beat the U.S.

Yeah, it now does seem pretty clear that a Ghana victory today is bad news for the US. However, some seem to want a tie today as opposed to an outright German victory.

[politicallefty]

According to 538, with the Germany/Ghana draw, the US increased its chances of winning the group from 11% to 20%, but reduced its chances of advancing from 69% to 64%.

I really want to see a US win today, which guarantees advancement. I think we're quite likely to lose to Germany, so I'd rather the US secure its own position by winning today. A Portugal win seems to look nearly fatal for Team USA.

If the US advances, how good are the Group H teams? Who does the US want to play in that group and who would be the biggest trouble?

[politicallefty]

Portugal scores, now up 2-1.