The absentee/early vote thread

[Doimper]

FL already has over 2 million ballots requested, which split 43% R and 37% D (see post from TN volunteer slightly above).

In Mid-October 2014, there were also more than 2 million ballots requested in FL, and the split was 42% R, 39% D ...

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-picking-up-s_b_5973716.html

So a month ahead of schedule to hit same # of requested absentees? Interesting.

Midterm vs Presidential year is not a great comparison.  Is there any data from 2012?

I'm hearing that the Dems had a 3 point lead in 2012.

[Doimper]

https://twitter.com/gercohen/status/789447592564359169

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[Doimper]

Whoa, Democrats surging in VBM in NEBRASKA:

2016:

VBM Requests: D 30,910 46% R 23,408 35% I 11,881 18% Total 66,768

2012:

vs. 2012 Requests: D 26,019 118.8% R 23,560 99.4% I 10,070 118.0% Total 59,980 111.3%

Hello, NE-02

[Doimper]

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Holy sh**t

[Doimper]

What's up with decreased black turnout in NC?

[Doimper]

What's up with decreased black turnout in NC?

Polling places where African Americans are have been cut down by Republicans.

Oh, I should've guessed. What a disgrace.

[Doimper]

  Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions:  10,015,480 votes making up 21.7% of the 2012 early vote.

Is there any info about how many were cast at this point in 2012?

[Doimper]

538 throws cold water on looking too closely at early vote

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/

It seems to me if you take out the Dixiecrat states, you do get a pretty strong positive correlation between the early vote and final vote share.

[Doimper]

Once again, taking NV off the table removes all win paths that do not include either PA or WI

If Trump has a chance to win any of Hillary's firewall state, it's actually NH imo (very independent-thinking, elastic state).

TN Volunteer is hurtling towards this thread at 300 mph

[Doimper]

Off-topic here but guys please if you're going to quote StatesPoll for some reason, strip his stupid gifs out of the quoted text for gods sake. It's bad enough that he's acting like he's on 4chan, but quoting his images just makes it worse.

The crazy font size hurts my eyes, and is one of the major reasons that I rarely quote StatesPoll anymore....

I don't mind quoting back for individuals that post charts and graphs, since it isn't as hard on my eyes, and plus I assume people do as I do and skip down to the body of the text/response, and also with fast-moving threads like this one, some individuals don't go back to reread the previous three pages of posts sometimes, so actually like checking out a new chart/graph, etc.....

Why would anyone quote StatesPoll?? He should just be ignored.

I have never felt more grim about the direction of this nation than I did the day I found out StatesPoll has 80k followers on Twitter