Hillary for AR-SEN or GOV 2002

[Alben Barkley]

Let’s say that instead of moving to New York and running there in 2000, Hillary and Bill Clinton stay as Arkansas residents and she runs for Senate there in 2002. Does she beat Tim Hutchinson as Mark Pryor did in real life? If so, presumably she easily gets re-elected in 2008 like Pryor did right? And then, assuming Obama still won the nomination and presidency and still makes her SoS, she doesn’t have to worry about getting slaughtered in 2014.

Alternatively, she could have run for her husband’s old office in the gubernatorial race in 2002. Could she have beaten Mike Huckabee? If so, she likely wins comfortably in 2006, and same deal as above if she becomes SoS. Though if Beebe still could have easily won in 2010, perhaps she could have survived then too? (Although apparently Arkansas now has governor term limits, didn’t when Bill was around, so I guess that’s not an issue anyway.)

Or does this change the timeline so much it increases the odds of her becoming the presidential nominee in 2008 and/or changing the Democratic coalition and map? Does her actually representing Arkansas actually have the chance to make it remotely competitive if she’s the nominee as late as 2016 even???

[NewYorkExpress]

Hutchinson was really unpopular, so Hillary easily wins that race.

I think she still runs for President in 2008, and part of the reason this time is that I'm not sure she could outrun any other Democratic nominee in a Senate race that year.

So:

2002:

Hillary Clinton (D) 57%
Tim Hutchinson (R) 42%

2008: (Hillary retires to run for President)

John Boozman (R) 54%
Bill Halter (D) 45%

If Hillary runs for Governor in 2002, she probably beats Jimme Lou Fisher in the primary, but she'd actually have a harder time with Huckabee.

2002 (D Primary)

Hillary Clinton 59%
Jimmie Lou Fisher 40%

2002 (General Election)

Mike Huckabee (R) 51%
Hillary Clinton (D) 49%