Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thing is, if I remember correctly, a lot of the Tory vote in scotland had nothing to do with conservatism and everything to do with the fact that the Tories were the "unionist" party (so much so that they were the last party to get a majority of the vote).

So now that the unionist question isn't as well...important (or at least the reason why people vote the way they do)...the left parties do much better...

Sort of; it was more a case of the Unionists (as the Tories were usually called in Scotland until the '60's or so) being stridently anti-Catholic. Glasgow used to be full of marginals...

[2952-0-0]

the Canadian Allaince and Progressive conservative parties merged a few years back right.  It was the progressive conservative party that won in the 80's.  Do people not like the merger or view the new joint conservative party as too conservative.

Well, the "new and united" Conservative Party blatantly turned out to be a successor to the Alliance during last year's campaign. All the leadership positions of the Conservative Party went to former Alliance people, as did the leadership spot, to Stephen Harper. Many of the old PC'ers refused to support the new party (Joe Clark, the most important PCer, supported the Liberals), and that sums up why the Tories are seen as just the Alliance under a new name.

[Hatman 🍁]

What would it take for the Conservative to win in Quebec? or is that impossible...and they are basically facing the same sort of extremely uphill battle that the UK tories have in Scotland and Wales?

(In other words, is there any sort of center right bloc there?)

Like Scotland, Conservatives used to do really well there but have since been just about wiped out.

According to Earl's awesome maps, PC got 84% of the seats in Quebec in the 1988 election. 

Thing is, if I remember correctly, a lot of the Tory vote in scotland had nothing to do with conservatism and everything to do with the fact that the Tories were the "unionist" party (so much so that they were the last party to get a majority of the vote).

So now that the unionist question isn't as well...important (or at least the reason why people vote the way they do)...the left parties do much better...

I'm wondering if Quebec is just that much more leftist or something relative to the rest of canada (especially Ontario)

Quebec is very leftist. Very VERY leftist. They just elected a gay former cocaine user as their leader of the opposition.

[bullmoose88]

What would it take for the Conservative to win in Quebec? or is that impossible...and they are basically facing the same sort of extremely uphill battle that the UK tories have in Scotland and Wales?

(In other words, is there any sort of center right bloc there?)

Like Scotland, Conservatives used to do really well there but have since been just about wiped out.

According to Earl's awesome maps, PC got 84% of the seats in Quebec in the 1988 election. 

Thing is, if I remember correctly, a lot of the Tory vote in scotland had nothing to do with conservatism and everything to do with the fact that the Tories were the "unionist" party (so much so that they were the last party to get a majority of the vote).

So now that the unionist question isn't as well...important (or at least the reason why people vote the way they do)...the left parties do much better...

I'm wondering if Quebec is just that much more leftist or something relative to the rest of canada (especially Ontario)

Quebec is very leftist. Very VERY leftist. They just elected a gay former cocaine user as their leader of the opposition.

Thats what I thought...Scotland, Wales, for whatever reason, once you strip away the Loyalist/religion question...are likely more left than the rest of the country...Al, comparatively speaking, is it fair to say that Wales and Scotland are less affluent than England (overall)?

And Earl...a similar question for you...where does Quebec stand in terms of affluence (probably ahead of the maritimes)...but what else?

[Hatman 🍁]

What would it take for the Conservative to win in Quebec? or is that impossible...and they are basically facing the same sort of extremely uphill battle that the UK tories have in Scotland and Wales?

(In other words, is there any sort of center right bloc there?)

Like Scotland, Conservatives used to do really well there but have since been just about wiped out.

According to Earl's awesome maps, PC got 84% of the seats in Quebec in the 1988 election. 

Thing is, if I remember correctly, a lot of the Tory vote in scotland had nothing to do with conservatism and everything to do with the fact that the Tories were the "unionist" party (so much so that they were the last party to get a majority of the vote).

So now that the unionist question isn't as well...important (or at least the reason why people vote the way they do)...the left parties do much better...

I'm wondering if Quebec is just that much more leftist or something relative to the rest of canada (especially Ontario)

Quebec is very leftist. Very VERY leftist. They just elected a gay former cocaine user as their leader of the opposition.

Thats what I thought...Scotland, Wales, for whatever reason, once you strip away the Loyalist/religion question...are likely more left than the rest of the country...Al, comparatively speaking, is it fair to say that Wales and Scotland are less affluent than England (overall)?

And Earl...a similar question for you...where does Quebec stand in terms of affluence (probably ahead of the maritimes)...but what else?

Quebec is pretty average, I'd say. Not as rich as Ontario or Alberta, but not poor like the Atlantic provinces. However, poorer areas of Quebec are  more likely to support seperatism. Look at Montreal, the wealthier areas like Westmount and Mont Royal are Liberal stronghold, while poorer areas like Hochelaga are BQ/PQ strongholds.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thats what I thought...Scotland, Wales, for whatever reason, once you strip away the Loyalist/religion question...are likely more left than the rest of the country...Al, comparatively speaking, is it fair to say that Wales and Scotland are less affluent than England (overall)?

Wales is (depending on how you measure things but...) the poorest part of Great Britain; there are some well off areas here and there (especially in the Cardiff commuter area and in parts of Cardiff itself. Oh and some of God's Waiting Room's along the coast) and some areas that aren't don't badly, but the overall picture is pretty bleak and has been since the '20's.

While Wales is (for the most part) very leftwing economically, most of the country is very socially conservative (especially the Valleys and also Northwest Wales) as any observer of the bizarre civil war within Blaenau Gwent Labour that's been raging for about a year now, has probably noticed...

[Harry Hayfield]

Recent Average of Canada's polls (since June 2005)

Liberals 36% (-1% on Election 2004)
Conservatives 27% (-3% on Election 2004)
New Democrats 17% (+1% on Election 2004)
Bloc Quebecois 13% (+3% on Election 2004)
Green Party 6% (+2% on Election 2004)
Others 1% (Unchanged on Election 2004)
Liberal lead of 9% (+2% on Election 2004)

Forecast Composition of Canada's Parliament (based on http://predictor.hillandknowlton.ca/:

Liberals 135 seats (Unchanged on Election 2004)
Conservatives 79 seats (-20 seats on Election 2004)
Bloc Quebecois 59 seats (+5 seats on Election 2004)
New Democrats 32 seats (+13 seats on Election 2004)
Independents 3 seats (+2 seats on Election 2004)
Liberals short of an overall majorty by 20

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hmm, that looks nice, huge Conservative loss, huge NDP gain.

[Max Power]

[Hatman 🍁]

Yay! The Hill and Knwolton people fixed the bugs I found

[Filuwaúrdjan]

See? I changed the year

[Polkergeist]

Can the Bloc win Anglophone seats ?

The anglophone seats seem to be the Libs stronghold in Quebec. But this election is going to be a low water mark for the libs in Quebec.

[Platypus]

the quebec lib seats are almost all very, very Lib. Some could swing, though.

[WalterMitty]

what is the best case scenario for the ndp?

could they actually finish second?

[minionofmidas]

In votes - grotesquely unlikely.
In seats - No. Under no circumstances. Even a Liberal meltdown ala PC 92 (or whenever it was; anyways, not gonna happen) would likely give us the Bloc as second party

[Kevinstat]

What do people think about the EKOS Research Poll from November 26 that puts the Liberals within striking distance over the course of the campaign of a majority government?  I've heard Ekos polls tend to overestimate support for more left-wing parties, but I get the sense from the accompanying article ( http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&call_pageid=971358637177&c=Article&cid=1132960213015 ) that the results of this poll are significantly better for the Liberals than the results of the last poll.  So what do our Canadian posters (and others too) think?  Was this whole sponsergate scandal a blip in a long run of Liberal dominance or will Canadians not see a Liberal majority government for some time to come?  Or is the truth somewhere in the middle, like perhaps it will take a few years or a full five-year period after the coming election for the Liberals to again win a majority?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

CBC/Environics poll: http://www.cbc.ca/canadavotes/analysiscommentary/poll.html

Liberals down over 10pts in Quebec since 2004, NDP up over 7pts in the Prairies (Alberta-Sask-Manitoba) since 2004.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New Ipsos-Reid poll...

Lib 31% (down 3pts on last poll)
Con 31% (up 1pt)
NDP 18% (up 2pts)

BQ on 58% in Quebec

Will try to find more details...

[DarthKosh]

Looks like the Bloc will clean up in Quebec.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Couple of things to do:

1. Do predictions ala U.K election earlier in the year (will start a thread on that fairly soon...)
2. Make some demographic maps (I appear to have an addiction...). I've been looking for a good outline map to use and I reckon the best thing to do would be to use the maps from Wikipedia (IIRC Earl drew them; very, very nice they are indeed). Demographics that'll be mapped in all maps will be income (probably household income), % blue collar (or something similer to it; the way statcan does occupation groups isn't very helpful). Housing tenure and maybe educational levels as well. After that it depends on what demographic factors effect the ridings in the area; so % Francophone would be a very common one. Or % minority. Or etc.
I'll try to get areas that are likely to be competative done first.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Looks like the Bloc will clean up in Quebec.

Not quite; there will always, always, always be some safe Anglo Grit seats in Western Montreal...

[Hatman 🍁]

What do people think about the EKOS Research Poll from November 26 that puts the Liberals within striking distance over the course of the campaign of a majority government?  I've heard Ekos polls tend to overestimate support for more left-wing parties, but I get the sense from the accompanying article ( http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&call_pageid=971358637177&c=Article&cid=1132960213015 ) that the results of this poll are significantly better for the Liberals than the results of the last poll.  So what do our Canadian posters (and others too) think?  Was this whole sponsergate scandal a blip in a long run of Liberal dominance or will Canadians not see a Liberal majority government for some time to come?  Or is the truth somewhere in the middle, like perhaps it will take a few years or a full five-year period after the coming election for the Liberals to again win a majority?

Hey, I work for Ekos Although, I have been busy with school, so I missed doing that poll. When I did the poll before it, I did find a lot of people picking the NDP. I dont know why, it was an open ended question. (If the election were held tommorow, which party would you vote for?)

[Dave from Michigan]

wait I'm I reading this right  in the 1993 election the Progressive conservative party went from being in power with 151 seats  right before the election to  TWO seats.     The new reform party must have took lots of votes away from them but TWO seats.

[bullmoose88]

Are the Conservatives ahead in any provinces? (since they're up 1 point nationally, and down 7 in the praries, they should be up somehere[?])

[Emsworth]

New Ipsos-Reid poll...

Lib 31% (down 3pts on last poll)
Con 31% (up 1pt)
NDP 18% (up 2pts)

BQ on 58% in Quebec

Will try to find more details...

On the Hill and Knowlton Predictor, that gives another hung Parliament:

Con 112
Lib 86
BQ 67
NDP 42
Other 1

wait I'm I reading this right  in the 1993 election the Progressive conservative party went from being in power with 151 seats  right before the election to  TWO seats.     The new reform party must have took lots of votes away from them but TWO seats.

The Progressive Conservatives had a complete meltdown in 1993. A recession, high unemployment, and new taxes made the party very unpopular. Just about all of its western seats went to the Reform Party, and almost all of its Quebec seats to the Bloc.