My UK Election Predictions

[Peter]

Like all the other UK political buffs on the board, I will be predicting the elections for myself, but as a more general resource, I am also posting public pages on my website that will hopefully will be a good guide to identifying the marginal seats and then giving some background to them.

As ever, I will break the seats into the Regions that are used for EUP elections.

First online are:

Wales

South West England

Advice on both descriptions of regions and individual constituencies welcome.

I think I've identified all the marginal seats, though I could be wrong.

[Ben.]

Good Stuff.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

I am ashamed at wales heavy labour voting....

And that plaid cymru is an awful lot, its good that there is a welsh national party but its a shame its full of goopy socialists

[Hatman 🍁]

Just like the Bloc Quebecois?

[Silent Hunter]

I'm pretty certain that Avon no longer exists as a county.

[Peter]

Well Avon is used by http://www.election.demon.co.uk, so I use it for ease of correlating my data up against theirs. Though I think you are right - it doesn't exist anymore - all of the constituencies are either under nearby County Councils or Unitaries.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

IIRC Organ (Lab, Forest of Dean) is retiring. Could be wrong.

[minionofmidas]

You might want to mention there's one directly elected Independent in the Welsh Assembly (John Marek in Wrexham, formerly Labour), just so the figures add up.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You might want to mention there's one directly elected Independent in the Welsh Assembly (John Marek in Wrexham, formerly Labour), just so the figures add up.

His party ("Forward Wales!") was the biggest flop of the Euro elections

[minionofmidas]

You might want to mention there's one directly elected Independent in the Welsh Assembly (John Marek in Wrexham, formerly Labour), just so the figures add up.

His party ("Forward Wales!") was the biggest flop of the Euro elections

Why, did anyone expect it to get any votes?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You might want to mention there's one directly elected Independent in the Welsh Assembly (John Marek in Wrexham, formerly Labour), just so the figures add up.

His party ("Forward Wales!") was the biggest flop of the Euro elections

Why, did anyone expect it to get any votes?

Yep. Not expected to win a seat in the European Parliament o/c... but they were expected to do better than the Monster Raving Loony % they actually got...
Especially as their candidate was Ron Davies

[Democratic Hawk]

I am ashamed at wales heavy labour voting....

Why?

Dave

[Ben.]

Peter how are the other sections of the prediction coming along?

As a side note, i was at the Islington South Offices today and it must be one of the most active Labour Branches I've ever been to (motivated chattering classes i guess) so i think Labour should be fine there, and Leicester (where it looks like I'll be working on and off till the election) will be tough but i think Labour will take it back.

[Peter]

Peter how are the other sections of the prediction coming along?

I'm just sitting down to do the South East - don't expect me to have finished the whole nation until Xmas at least, I don't have an age on my hands you know.

[Ben.]

I don't have an age on my hands you know.

Damn it! thats what i was counting on

[English]

I am ashamed at wales heavy labour voting....

And that plaid cymru is an awful lot, its good that there is a welsh national party but its a shame its full of goopy socialists

Wales and Socialism go together like Bread and Butter.
The town of Maerdy was run by Communists for many years.
Such radical left-wing thought isn't really surprising when you consider how badly treated the people were for many years. The Aberfan disaster in the 1960's being the perfect example.
http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/politics/aberfan/home.htm

[Ben.]

Galloway's standing in Bethnal Green and Bow! Its offical... little turd! Welll all good men and true must go to King's Defence!  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Aberfan disaster in the 1960's being the perfect example.
http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/politics/aberfan/home.htm

*cries*

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Galloway's standing in Bethnal Green and Bow! Its offical... little turd! Welll all good men and true must go to King's Defence!  

How blatently Anti-Semitic do you think Galloway's campaign will be? I reckon pretty blatent...

[Ben.]

Galloway's standing in Bethnal Green and Bow! Its offical... little turd! Welll all good men and true must go to King's Defence!  

How blatently Anti-Semitic do you think Galloway's campaign will be? I reckon pretty blatent...

I'd go for blazingly, i'm adding to my prayers that he goes down hard, the idea of Galloway beating such a good MP as Oona King just makes me feel sick... as I’ve said before      

[Silent Hunter]

I said King would get a rough ride here. I wasn't aware that she is Jewish through her mother.

This is going to turn nasty- remember King voted for the Iraq war.

Fitzpatrick will walk Poplar and Canning Town, but Respect will probably save their deposit.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I said King would get a rough ride here. I wasn't aware that she is Jewish through her mother.

It hurt her a lot in 1997 and to a lesser extent in 2001...

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Agreed

[Democratic Hawk]

Galloway's standing in Bethnal Green and Bow! Its offical... little turd! Welll all good men and true must go to King's Defence!

Too right Ben. There's only one place for Galloway and its the Tower!

Dave

[Peter]

South East England

I am moving back home over this weekend, I should have another region by the end of next week. I'm not particularly bothered what I do, so I'll take requests.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

South East England

I am moving back home over this weekend, I should have another region by the end of next week. I'm not particularly bothered what I do, so I'll take requests.

Nice to see the tiny (and ultra-militant) Kent coalfield gets a mention :-)