German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What's WASG? I'm under the impression this is the party I'd vote for, although it'd probably depend on what district I lived in.

I actually do have a little bit of Germany ancestry from my mother's side, her maiden name was "Ebert". Is that a German name? Sounds like it could be but I'm not sure. And if so can you identify what region it'd be from? I'm assuming it'd be one of the Catholic ones with her being raised Catholic.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So is this all because of the economy? I was hearing about how the new numbers are misleading and the economy's not really as bad as they imply, but based on these poll numbers it looks like the CDU is reaping what you would expect with numbers actually like this.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

PDS/WASG: 56 (+54)

whoa, quite a shock but at least one good thing might happen.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

"wears jeans, listens to western music

the stupid thing about that is that's basically true of most Germans (and most western Europeans overall)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If the CDU were clearly dominant, especially on foreign policy (traditionally the CDU has been the most friendly to the U.S., although that last poll question on 'Who's better for foreign policy' makes me go about Germany)

Well it's not like Schroeder or most Germans are really anti-American in foreign policy, just anti-Bush, so they think whoever is more unfriendly to Bush is better, and I agree. If Kerry were in office now, things would probably be much better, although Schroeder still be ahead.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If the CDU were clearly dominant, especially on foreign policy (traditionally the CDU has been the most friendly to the U.S., although that last poll question on 'Who's better for foreign policy' makes me go about Germany)

Well it's not like Schroeder or most Germans are really anti-American in foreign policy, just anti-Bush, so they think whoever is more unfriendly to Bush is better, and I agree. If Kerry were in office now, things would probably be much better, although Schroeder still be ahead.

Eh, I'm not sure about that first sentence. Breaking a 50+ year alliance with the strongest power on the planet to coddle with the likes of Chirac and Putin doesn't exactly strike me as wise foreign policy.

like I said, it's all Bush, nothing more.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

PDS beating FDP, hell yeah!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm assuming that that would be "The Left Party, PDS" if used in America and the period is because of the European writing of usings periods and commas the opposite as Americans do?

Even though I like the look of a period here better than a comma, I still think it looks really dumb when a comma is used for a decimal point.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

With the SPD slowly rising hopefully they can take back enough from the CDU/CSU and have an SPD/Left Party/Greens coalition.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's the Political Compass graph on the current German parties:



I have to really chuckle. You never know what Political Compass are thinking when they make their charts, going by this, my mom is probably significantly to the left of both the Left/PDS and Greens, even though "Christian democrat" would sum up her ideology fairly accurately (even though I'm sure she has no clue what it means). And don't even get me started on where SPD is. Not to mention this puts SPD on a whole to the right of where Schroeder is on the world leaders list.

Old Europe posted his estimations of where the parties would be awhile earlier but I'm too lazy to find it, if anyone can please post it, and if anyone could graph it that'd be cool.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Because to be perceived as a Bush supporter kills your electoral prospects at once and for all times.

Oh, yes, that.

Yes, that one. Considering how extremely close the 2002 election here was, it isn´t too far-fetched to assume that Stoiber could have actually won... had Al Gore (and not Bush) been in the White House!

You may blame the East Germans, you may blame North Rhine-Westphalia... or you simply may blame Florida.

I'll just blame knee-jerk anti-Americanism as usual.

I´m not sure. That´s perhaps a too simple explanation, considering the ongoing rockstar-like popularity Bill Clinton has here, which is sometimes even beyond my comprehension. But I assume that Clinton is seen as a symbol for the "good old times" (before Bush), when the USA were still "cool". In a way this leads to an excessive idealization and glorification of Clinton in Germany, which makes him better than he actually was/is. Just my little theory.

But it isn´t simply "anti-Americanism". Germans despise Bush... personally. This doesn´t mean that there´s no anti-Americanism at all in Germany, but simple antipathy against the person (and politics) of George W. Bush are sometimes (mis)interpreted as general anti-Americanism.

That's what I've been saying for a long time. 90% of the time things conservatives claim are signs of "anti-AMericanism" are really just anti-Bush.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Looks like the German left is stupidly shooting themselves in the foot, like the Greek left, and of course the American left with the lemmings who followed Nader the fool.

Hopefully they can deny CDU/FDP a majority, and then decide to get their act together. This infighting is ridiculous.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well I'm glad to see the CDU/CSU do much worse than expected. But this also looks like a very hung government. What happens afterwords will be quite interesting.

BTW, does NDP have any seats in any state governments?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Considering how bad Merkel and PDS look now, if we do end up with new elections, I'm betting SPD/Greens wins a majority.

Schroeder has said he will not enter any coalition with Merkel as Chancellor (go Schroeder!) so as of now it looks as if there's no way she can win. Either the left scrapes out a coalition or new electoion is held and the left wins. I hope so, because I utterly despise Merkel. What a vile woman.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Supports Bush foreign policy. Seeing German troops end up in Iraq would be a nightmare.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Their senses

Lots of votes for an Islamist-coddling Neo-Nazi party is coming to their senses? And you say you're not a fascist.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That Jamaican coalition makes no sense to me at all, honestly it sounds about as logical as the Tories trying to form a government with Sinn Fein. I can't beleive it's being seriously suggested.

Traffic light is probably the only realistic scenario, unless one of the sides sucks up and agrees to a Grand Coalition, or they can choose some sort of compromise Chancellor.

BTW, if John Kerry was President now, would CDU/CSU + FDP have won a clear majority?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This government is probably going to be a huge nothing, much like the Minnesota legislature now (where the GOP house and DFL Senate simply kill any bill the other passes and nothing gets done)

Since the left still has a true ideological majority, Merkel's government will have a tough time passing any real new reforms, especially with the SDP holding many Minister positions. Left Party will vote with the Greens against them, and SDP will probably side mostly with them.

Plus now the SDP can collapse the government whenever they want, meaning they took the plan Lewis said earlier, enter a grand coalition, then kill the government at the time they are most likely to take control again. I expect the new government to last a year and a half at most before new elections.