I am a bit worried about this LA race. It is guaranteed to go to a runoff, right?
If this is serious, why? Are you worried about a D vs. D or D vs. Lefty I runoff due to vote splitting? Or are you worried about Campbell tapping into disaffected Trumpy turnout and beating an R outright like JBE did last year?
Yeah, I'm worried about Campbell winning the runoff, especially if control of the Senate is already settled. Democrats can still win a Senate race in LA against a weak Republican. I'm generally worried about open seats - they can cause much trouble.
Absolutely. If Landrieu faced a weak candidate in 2014 she would have been reelected. Open Senate seats should never be taken for granted. (See Rick Berg 2012 as a classic example.) It would also be interesting (and scary) if the runoff ended up deciding Senate control.
If it was to decide senate control there is no way, even if the entire Republican Party is revealed to be an elaborate money laundering ring, the seat would go democratic.